Perot was in '92. But hey, that isn't necessarily a bad thing in our
case. Just keep in mind that either candidate will get drunk off of this
Posted on 02/13/2008 12:04:20 AM PST by Kurt Evans
There'll be 2,380 total delegates selected for the national convention, and a candidate will need the votes of 1,191 of them to win the nomination. If no candidate secures that number of votes during the primaries, the nominee will be determined at the convention.
According to CNN's estimates, McCain has 812 of 1331 delegates committed so far and therefore needs 379 of the remaining 1049 (36.1 percent) to secure the nomination.
According to the AP's estimates, he has 821 of 1364 committed so far and needs 370 of the remaining 1016 (36.4 percent).
According to ABC's estimates, he has 819 of 1362 committed so far and needs 372 of the remaining 1018 (36.5 percent).
According to RCP's estimates, he has 797 of 1336 committed so far and needs 394 of the remaining 1044 (37.7 percent).
This means Governor Huckabee only needs about 64 percent of the remaining delegates to force an open convention. Winning 64 percent of the delegates doesn't require winning 64 percent of the votes, since the states generally weight their allocations of delegates disproportionately in favor of the winner.
I don't believe McCain can beat Obama, and I'm not sure America would be better off in the long run if he did. I believe wise conservatives will use any ethical means at their disposal to drive McCain out of the race.
There's plenty of time to turn this thing around. Real conservatives aren't quitters.
The election is too important to throw away. < /rant >
a serious question:
Do you support George Soros’ agenda?
Because John McCain *does*.
John McCain: George Soros’ Useful Idiot?
http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/30556.html
Reform Institute donor list, (includes the Tides foundation):
http://reforminstitute.org/about/AboutDonors.aspx
Sen. McCain: past Chairman of the Reform Institute, funded by George Soros’ Tide Foundation:
http://www.reforminstitute.org/about/about.aspx
i just saw a see-BS brief about mcQueeg congratulating himself taking three
primary runs. mc Queeg went to senator john warner and laid his head on
the senator’s shoulder like he was daddy. i realize he is exhausted for the
day but how can he be expected to handle the football when the chips are
down? my point is that huck needs more pay pal today.
McCain can beat Obama, if he runs the campaign RIGHT. And by RIGHT I mean it in two ways.
Right: correct in its focus on the weaknesses of Hussein.
Right: to the conservative side of the political spectrum.
A majority of us don’t want McCain at the head of the ticket. But he is going to be at the head of the ticket, barring a major event. If that “major event” happens, we can deal with that when it happens. But let’s live in the real world for now.
McCain, in order to do the #1, McCain needs to be relentless on Hussein’s liberal stands—both in the U.S. Senate, when he was a state legislator, and at other times in his life. In that order.
As for #2, McCain must put a solid conservative on his ticket...someone YOUNG enough that the base will look to him or her for future leadership. And McCain must reach out, in honesty, to the conservative base. People like me need to be convinced he can and will govern effectively.
The guy is tough on spending: he needs to ‘splain how he is going to fight against an overwhelmingly liberal Congress.
That is how I see it.
RD
Thanks for breaking down the numbers. Huck has a chance to force a brokered convention.
I have some disagreements w Huck on some issues...but he is by far better than McCain. With Duncan Hunter now supporting him (a man I have total respect for)...I am convinced Huck will be strong on illegal alien issues
McCain by no means is a sure lock. Also, the drivel that “we must support McCain” is driving me nuts
6.McCain will serve us best with regard to Radical Islam.
Cant believe the pandering for MythCain going on here
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=58430
Honestly, I think Obama is a phantom.
All talk, no substance.
His supporters are in love with the ‘idea’ of him, not him.
McCain will have his work cut out for him, assuming Obama is the opponent, because Obama can talk for 30 minutes and never really say anything.
It is difficult to contrast yourself when the opponent has no definitive position.
I believe that McCain can beat Obama. That isn’t the issue, though. The issue is splitting the vote.
With everyone voting still for 3 - 5 names, the probability of McCain receiving the lion’s share of those votes increases.
Some absolutely hate Huckabee. I’m not in that crowd. The same with Paul, Keyes, or Romney.....all of whose names might be on the ballot in any particular state.
What is obvious was made clear in the Washington primary last weekend. McCain won the primary and (eventually) the delegates with 25% of the vote. In other words, SEVENTY-FIVE PERCENT of the primary voters in the Republican primary voted AGAINST McCain.
With that kind of opposition, it’s unimaginable that McCain would walk out of that with all those delegates. But he did.
Because the vote was split.
There will be no taking this vote to the convention if there isn’t an agreement on one candidate to vote for.
I don’t believe McCain can beat him either. People are in an anti-DC mood. McCain is the epitome of DC and he is old. Obama is anti-DC and young.
The problem is Huck is no better than McCain. We’re stuck.
That's going too far.
How is Obama anti DC? His policies and experience are the fulfillment of DC liberal agendas.
McCain is worse. I could hold my nose a vote for Huck, but McCain is still a long, long way from the holding the nose phase.
What's happened to people’s minds wanting to support such a loathsome soul?
“..We know by prophecy that we are very close to the last days.... If you are not a born again Christian you wont understand a thing I’ve said.” ~ fish hawk
“We know that OT prophecy was fulfilled around AD-70, and we have been in the last days since Christ returned to his Father where he has been reining ever since. If you are an immature Christian, you won’t understand a thing I’ve said.” ~ Matchett-PI :)
In the Election thay would label Huckabee a dumb hick...
They would label McCain as insaine with a temper, and mentally unstable.
You are one of the people who do ont understand how bad it will be for McNut. There are accounts of him on the stump literally imcomprehensible, I'm sure the DNC has video of him out there like this. I'ts going to be bad. I'd feel sorry for him if I didn't despise him.
Well, a start would have been voting for someone else in the Potomac Primaries.
There have been many suggestions for how to finagle the nomination away from McCain, but the simplest and surest method has been largely ignored: conservatives plainly did not vote for the more conservative candidates in the primaries. Until that happens, it's unavoidable that a less conservative candidate will become the nominee.
Exactly.
I don’t know what makes people think that a candidate who can’t jump the hurdle (get enough votes) in his party’s nominating process to even get out of the bottom tier could then go on to be a viable candidate in the general election.
Turnout has been generally low in the Republican primaries. Out of those low numbers, a very low percentage voted for the more conservative candidates.
Even when what should have been obvious from the beginning became clear-—that if people failed to vote for the more conservative candidates, they would get a less conservative nominee-—they still chose McCain (the Potomac Primaries).
I understand people’s disappointment, but it is what it is.
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