Posted on 01/29/2008 8:38:37 PM PST by jdm
With more than two-thirds of the precincts reporting, John McCain has won an impressive victory in Florida's Republican primary. Many people questioned whether Senator McCain could win a closed GOP contest, as up to now he had won in New Hampshire and South Carolina through the assistance of crossover voting from Democrats and independents. Those questions have now been answered, at least in Florida.
What does this mean for the Super Tuesday contests coming up in a week? It appears that the race has narrowed down to McCain and Romney. McCain will enter February 5th with more delegates, but only 10% of what he needs to win the nomination. He will have a great deal of momentum and credibility, and Romney will have relinquished some. Almost certainly, McCain becomes the favorite to win the nomination.
However, Romney has a better national organization and more resources to run in 21 states simultaneously. He can negate some of the momentum and make this a delegate chase, and could very possibly come out of next week with a delegate lead. It won't be easy, especially since the McCain win in Florida will only bolster McCain's lead in the coastal states.
If the race really does come down to McCain and Romney, then Romney could also benefit from conservative disaffection with McCain. In the GOP, there exists a very real resistance to McCain, and that could find itself focusing on Romney as the anti-McCain. It's not the most positive phenomenon, but Romney may find it essential for a national victory.
Rudy Giuliani may hold the key. Rumors have floated that Giuliani will withdraw and endorse McCain. If he does, that may be enough to push McCain even further towards inevitability -- or it may not have any effect at all. Rudy's speech in Florida strongly hinted that he has come to the end of the road. If so, we will know soon; the Republicans will debate in California tomorrow night, and Rudy won't bother to appear unless he plans to contest elections on Super Tuesday.
At least for this evening, John McCain deserves some accolades. He hung tough and showed he could beat the field in a closed primary, and not by an insignificant amount, as his vote gap over Romney already exceeds 70,000.
UPDATE: McCain, in his victory speech, made a very clear attempt to be gracious towards all of the candidates, including Romney, and reach out to Reagan-coalition conservatives. Rumor has it that McCain is considering a visit to CPAC next week. I hope he does make an appearance there and speak as honestly and forthrightly about his candidacy with the foot soldiers of conservative activism. If he does win the nomination, he will need those activists behind him.
UPDATE II: He also insists that judges must understand their limited role in applying law and not creating policy. I wouldn't be surprised if that didn't get added after the John Fund article.
The McCainiac is the Manchurian Candidate.
Ooops. I must have been think about my husband when he said if JM wins he will need 5 pints.
As I like to say... Dr. Freud, your slip is showing! ;-P
Have a gerat day, FRiend.
“Give the Dems the Presidency for 4 years. Who cares?”
well i do for one. there will be at least one if not two SCOTUS retirements - if hill wins Bill will be nominated for one of those seats and some other loony lefty for the other. A LOT can happen in 4 years and the Dems are on the wrong side on the issues i care most about: the war, taxes, gun control.
I dont like McCain, i voted for Fred (NH) but if it comes down to McCain v. HIll/Bama i am going to hold my nose and vote for McCain.
She was behind Thompson. Romney torpedoed Thompson in Iowa and on the web. So maybe there’s some bias there.
I tend to agree with that. People switch parties every election.
Ah, glad to see there are still some voices of sanity left on FR.... seems we are a dying breed this election cycle.
LOL. So what does that make Obama?
Not a winning coalition on its own. Conservatism governs, when it governs, not because most of the electorate is true blue and committed, but because plenty of people who are not ideological conservatives - many of them largely uninterested in politics at all, in fact - vote for our guys because and when we are offering policies and leadership that the whole country clearly needs. Not clearly needs to committed conservatives, but clearly needs to common sense, the meanest capacity, plain as the nose on your face etc. Like when Carter has everyone in gas lines and is being pushed around by Iranian thugs...
There are forces involved far larger than the pundit and journalist level, or even the activist ideological level, that Rush is familiar with. Philosophical forces, the trends in and control of education, religious belief, personal mores, the whole tenor of modern civilization in the west. These things move on a time scale of generations, detectably so in some decades. But the forces themselves are not governably by simply choosing to offer up truer bluer conservatism at primary time.
They can be swayed by the talents of specific men, and by large scale successes or failures of long established policies or ideological innovations on basic ways of life. But occasionally and only somewhat, by mere pols. At bottom they depend on much stronger forces and much slower processes, at the peaks of cultural life, not the surface of daily politics. On thought and genuine changes in widespread and deeply held convictions, not on atmsopherics or successful momentary glib-ness.
It was news to the bulk of the American people that neo-liberal ideas could drag their sons into long and seemingly unwinnable wars half way around the world, for ideological causes that seem surreal and quite out of step with their whole image of the modern world and how it works. They are not fully convinced those things are necessary, and wonder why those we are trying to help can't do it themselves. This may not be the brightest or deepest thought available on the subject, but it is real and it is powerful.
Rush likes to say that the Dems own defeat. But that, too, is wishful thinking. If Iraq and Afghanistan had been won easily and the boys were home, there would not have been these repercussions. But they were not and are not. If no remaining threat from Iran and Pakistan were on the horizon, the whole subject might lack urgency. But they are, and it is not at all clear the present weakened state of the republican neo-liberal policy on the matter can handle them. You and I might see that is due to the obstruction of Democrats and lack of support at home, and that their alternatives are hopelessly naive and unworkable.
But not everyone does. They simply do not know. They don't like the present state of affairs and do not see the present course fixing everything. They do not know what to do about it. They do not like that feeling, it makes them uncomfortable and unhappy with people telling them how we should handle it. They sincerely doubt the men supposedly in charge, know what to do, either.
Now put all that as a new fact in the stream of the wider forces I spoke of above. It would be naive to expect that all that is necessary is to trot out a picture Reagan, wave a flag and toot a horn. It ain't happening.
Otherwise put, the question before the house is does the US want to be in the business of running Iran and Pakistan and reforming the whole Islamic world, as a civilizing mission? Or does that look like both presumption and folly? When you try to convince the whole west in such a matter, you are not up against one Dem pol or finagling by liberal republicans. You are up against a gale force civilizational wind that acts on a scale of continents and centuries.
Waving a flag, tooting a horn, and say "Ronaldus Magnus, rah rah", will not get it done.
A win for Hillary.
No accolades to McCain, not ever.
Also, I predict that McCain gets completely rolled by whoever or whatever the Dims nominate. I predict colossal landslide. The liberal news media want McCain because he is eminently beatable and so many of our fellow Republicans are falling for it!
53 posted on 01/29/2008 9:26:49 PM PST by mbs6
I agree.
Hillary as Pig Pen.
LOL. So what does that make Obama?
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