How does it seem like that?
Because the polls don’t mean squat at this time in the primaries, they have been swinging wildly almost every day, and their record this year... - well, it sucks. :)
What are you basing your argument on then? How many points do you see Guiliani winning Florida by? And how big a margin will he go on to win NY, NJ and CA by?
Polls do swing wildly and do continuously show large numbers of people making their minds up at the last minute (though, strangely, when those people do exactly what the polls say they might and reach a decision at the last minute, everyone says the polls are wrong....)
That’s why it’s sensible to look at a range of polls, look at trends, allow for other factors and not just look at the headline figures. Poll after poll shows Rudy struggling to beat Huckabee for a distant third in California. Trends show his support tanking there, as it’s tanked everywhere else (and in states that have already voted, this has been confirmed by the actual vote).