What are you basing your argument on then? How many points do you see Guiliani winning Florida by? And how big a margin will he go on to win NY, NJ and CA by?
Polls do swing wildly and do continuously show large numbers of people making their minds up at the last minute (though, strangely, when those people do exactly what the polls say they might and reach a decision at the last minute, everyone says the polls are wrong....)
That’s why it’s sensible to look at a range of polls, look at trends, allow for other factors and not just look at the headline figures. Poll after poll shows Rudy struggling to beat Huckabee for a distant third in California. Trends show his support tanking there, as it’s tanked everywhere else (and in states that have already voted, this has been confirmed by the actual vote).
I never said that he would take Florida. Even when the polls were all predicting a Rudy blowout here, - like 3 weeks ago - I was saying that the polls were bogus, and that the real race here would shape up after the SC results.
And also that the Florida voters would not give a 2nd glance at Iowa or NH, just SC.
And here we are, exactly as I predicted. (for once)
This primary is too close to call and the polls mean virtually nothing.
Right after SC, but before Fred dropped out, I did make this prediction on FR:
1)McCain
2)Mitt
3)Rudy
4)tie between Fred and Huck - one of these might break out and challenge #3
5) everyone else
So far, I’m pretty close here, and even Fred may well still beat Huck, with all of the early voting that was done before he dropped out. - which was a mistake, IMO, but his call to make.
Thank you for your interesting post. - Bill