Excellent analysis.... you must have some experience in this arena! :-)
Two questions:
1) Is Rudy now history? Or, will his early-vote dominance be able to save him in Florida?
2) How long can/will Huckaby stick around and keep spitting the vote?
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1) Is Rudy now history? Or, will his early-vote dominance be able to save him in Florida?
2) How long can/will Huckaby stick around and keep spitting the vote?
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1) Guilliani can hang on if McCain loses FL. If McCain does, his lead in NY will fade and Guilliani can perhaps take those WTA delegates there and NJ and be marginally competitive. If McCain wins FL, Guilliani’s polling in NY collapses and he drops out.
2) Huckabee will try to win MO. More than anything else, MO is his goal — because it is WTA. Everywhere else in the south is going to split votes regardless of FL. If he can win MO he gets their WTA total and can pretend to remain a player.
But make no mistake overall. If Romney wins Tuesday in FL, McCain’s and Huckabee’s spigot will close. The critical event after FL is later this week when finance reports have to be filed on the 31st. That will be the last chance before Feb 5 for people to go after “buying the nomination” mantra. However, if Romney is raising, say more than 2X what he lends the campaign, he looks pretty clean.