Because I'm now supporting a candidate who's above 1% in the polls, no one is going to believe my picking of winners and losers. I will make some comments about each of the candidates in order of right to left across the stage.
Mike Huckabee - Mike Huckabee did very well. For the most part, he seemed more genuine tonight. In some previous debates, he seemed to be putting on an act. The "down-home, country preacher act" was fun to watch, but no one really wanted to elect a stage act to the presidency. He seemed a little silly and contrived when he talked about Mitt Romney spending his own money. To a lesser extent, his comments about Chuck Norris were the same way although they fit the situation more appropriately. Otherwise, he struck a good tone. He helped himself with Republicans by asking Mr. Romney about the Second Amendment. He used some populist language, but he did a good job of not sounding like a big-government populist or someone who was playing on envy for the rich. He did a good job of defending the Fair Tax. As I watched tonight, I could see myself voting for Mr. Huckabee happily enough if he won the nomination.
Ron Paul - Ron Paul's challenge in making himself look good and not making the debate into a circus is to express his differences in foreign policy without sounding like Cindy Sheehan. He met that challenge tonight. He came across as the long time budget-hawk and liberty-hawk who happens to have a very different view on some, not all, aspects of foreign policy. Because the differences on those aspects of foreign are so stark and the issues are so important, those of us who disagree with him cannot support him for the nomination. However, we're still glad to have people like him in the party because he has spent so many years standing for liberty, for financial responsibility, and for the Constitution.
Rudy Giuliani - Rudy Giuliani is saying the right things at this time, but many conservatives and many Republicans still do not trust him. He had a pretty good debate. He has money to spend, and he could still win Florida. If he wins Florida, he could still win the nomination. He certainly doesn't have that aura of inevitability that he had in the past, and without that aura, he's not the same candidate. He's not a guy who helps himself towards the nomination just by avoiding any major gaffes. Instead, he's a guy who needs something to happen to put himself ahead of other candidates, and I didn't see anything that gave him that advantage. When all is said and done, he's still the guy who said that private citizens shouldn't own handguns, the guy who opposed the partial birth abortion ban, and the guy who's made several public appearances in drag. Maybe none of those things alone would sink his candidacy, but they hurt him with Republicans who now feel that they have choices. Mr. Giuliani had a good debate, but he didn't advance his chances very much.
John McCain - John McCain generally said the right things also. None of us forget that he served his country well in Vietnam. He gained more from that personal history tonight because he managed to go through an entire debate without mentioning his service (that I noticed). He said the right things, but the question that I couldn't put out of my mind was, "Can I believe him?" His history of playing to the liberals, the Democrats, and the media hurts him with conservatives and Republicans no matter how well he answers the questions. I can't remember the quote that Tim Russert asked about early in the debate, but if he really said what he denied, that answer could haunt him. He clearly had no idea what Ron Paul was asking him, and his attempt to bluff around the question was as transparent as that of a sixth-grader trying to explain a school book that he failed to read. The early focus on spending helped John McCain build bridges to conservatives, but nothing he said or did made me trust him.
Mitt Romney - Mitt Romney always speaks well, and the lack of confrontation either with the other candidates or the moderators kept him from appearing at all flustered. He did a good job answering the Second Amendment question from Mike Huckabee, and he deflected the Mormon issue very well. In the third segment, they seemed to be asking him more questions in an attempt to trip him. The result was that he seemed to get more attention than the other candidates. That attention may help him. Some people won't believe him no matter what he says, and some amount of anti-Mormon bigotry will always exist. In spite of these things, Mr. Romney did what he needed to do in the debate. If he's truly ahead in Florida, he's likely held that lead. If he needs to make up a few more points on Mr. McCain, he may have helped himself just slightly.
Bill
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Great job!
I agree.
The only time I winced all night was when McCain spoke of carbon credits.
Having no horse in the race, my horse never got out of the paddock, I must say that Romney was pretty damn good.
Ron Paul is the equivilent of one of those satire news articles that has you going until you figure out it's a joke. He can suck you in and you start thinking this guy is really tuned in, here's someone who knows what's going on, then suddenly you realize you've taken a turn into kookville and feel rather sheepish. Come on, I'm not the only one.
Thank you for this review. It is so helpful for those of us who could not see the debate.