Posted on 01/21/2008 5:06:48 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Mitt Romney with a slight lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are close behind in what may develop into a three-man race. It’s Romney at 25%, McCain at 20%, and Giuliani at 19%. Romney has picked up seven points over the past week while McCain and Giuliani each inched up a point.
Last week, before the Michigan and South Carolina Primaries, Rasmussen Reports polling found essentially a four-way tie for the lead in Florida. However, Mike Huckabee has slipped to 13% in the current poll. A week ago, he was the top choice for 17%.
One major wild card in the race may be Fred Thompson. The former Senator from Tennessee is considering dropping out of the race after a disappointing showing in South Carolina last Saturday. Twelve percent (12%) of Florida’s Likely Republican Primary Voters still support the actor turned politician.
Even though early voting has already begun, the race remains incredibly fluid. Just 54% of likely voters say they are “certain” of how they will vote. Six percent (6%) have not yet made up their mind and 12% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Giuliani and Huckabee have the most solid support at this time. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Giuliani’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for him along with 65% of those who favor Huckabee. For Romney, just 55% are that certain. For McCain, just 48% are that certain. In fact, 22% of McCain’s supporters still say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Among those who are “certain” how they will vote, Romney is the pick for 25%, Giuliani 24%, and McCain 17%.
Florida represents both a major challenge and a major opportunity for McCain. Both result from the fact that Independent voters are not allowed to participate in Florida’s Republican Primary. In McCain’s earlier victories, he has been competitive among Republican voters but won with the votes of Independents. If he is to win the GOP nomination, McCain must sooner or later show that he can win among Republicans. On the other hand, if McCain can win a Republican-only Primary in Florida, he will have a major advantage heading into Super Tuesday a week later.
In Florida, Romney leads among conservative voters, attracting 28% of them. Giuliani is second with 18%.
Among moderates, McCain dominates with 34% support. Giuliani is second with 23%.
Huckabee leads among the state’s Evangelical Christian voters, but his lead is not as substantial as in earlier states. Huckabee currently attracts 25% of the Evangelical vote, Romney 20%, and Thompson 17%.
Giuliani is viewed favorably by 74% of Likely Primary Voters. Romney’s favorables are at 70%, Thompson at 66%, McCain at 64%, Huckabee at 54% and Paul at 28%.
Sixty-one percent (61%) of Likely Primary Voters view Thompson as politically conservative, 45% say the same about Huckabee and 43% view Romney as a conservative. Just 21% see McCain in that way while 14% see Giuliani as a conservative.
Eighty-three percent (83%) see Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal and 76% say the same about McCain. Fifty percent (50%) see Huckabee as moderate or liberal and 49% hold that view of Romney.
Last week’s survey found that Giuliani and McCain were seen as the most electable Republican candidates.
McCain and Romney lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Before the caucuses and primaries began, Huckabee led the Florida Primary in December. Giuliani held the lead in November. A victory in Florida is crucial for Giuliani who has chosen to stay out of earlier contests in Election 2008. The high risk strategy calls for Giuliani to accept defeats in the early states, win Florida, and translate that momentum into victory on Super Tuesday, February 5.
What you state is the very same thing that happened in South Carolina...the old “don’t waste your vote” routine. If Fred had gotten over 20% there, we’d be talking about the big Fred surge today and sending him our kids’ allowance.
Do you REALLY think John McCain will be the nominee? Vote FOR someone, and something.
Rasmussen Poll Monday Jan 21, 2008
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_republican_primary
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Mitt Romney with a slight lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are close behind in what may develop into a three-man race. It’s Romney at 25%, McCain at 20%, and Giuliani at 19%. Romney has picked up seven points over the past week while McCain and Giuliani each inched up a point.
Mitt Romney 25%
John McCain 20%
Rudy Giuliani 19%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Fred Thompson 12%
Ron Paul 5%
Not Sure 6%
I wanted to see Fred win this for this nation, but the reality is that he is not even pursuing this position in a way that you would hope he would.
The time to ensure McCain does not win is at hand.
SLIM PICKINS ?
Where is Major Stanley “King” Kong when you need him.
“Well, boys, I reckon this is it — nuclear combat toe to toe with the Rooskies. Now look, boys, I ain’t much of a hand at makin’ speeches, but I got a pretty fair idea that something doggone important is goin’ on back there. And I got a fair idea the kinda personal emotions that some of you fellas may be thinkin.’ Heck, I reckon you wouldn’t even be human bein’s if you didn’t have some pretty strong personal feelin’s about nuclear combat. I want you to remember one thing, the folks back home is a-countin’ on you and by golly, we ain’t about to let ‘em down. I tell you something else, if this thing turns out to be half as important as I figure it just might be, I’d say that you’re all in line for some important promotions and personal citations when this thing’s over with. That goes for ever’ last one of you regardless of your race, color or your creed. Now let’s get this thing on the hump — we got some flyin’ to do.”
This year we really do have slim pickins
Everything you say about Fred is true. The only problem is the masses are not connecting with him. S.C. was his best chance and he finished far behind McCain & Huckabee. It was a wake up call.
Florida was supposed to be Guiliani’s big state..Instead he has barely moved up in the polls while Romney is surging..That tells us that people are deciding on Romney over the 2 RINO’s-Rudy and McCain,...during this campaign Romney has been focusing on the conservative message while Huckabee has been doing everything to convince people he is really a conservative and not a liberal but people can see through his argument. For all we know, Romney could pick Fred as his VP, that would be the ticket...
Nice article. Thanks.
I wanted to see Fred win this for this nation, but the reality is that he is not even pursuing this position in a way that you would hope he would.
The time to ensure McCain does not win is at hand.
Fred hasn't a chance in Florida, a winner take all State. So I'd vote for Romney if I was a resident even though Fred is my man, anything to stop McCain/Huckabee/Rudy...
Who would vote for a McCain/Thompson ticket?
McCain/Thompson — I’d do it, in a heartbeat.
I’m a Guiliani supporter who will be voting for Romney if Guiliani loses.
I wouldn’t vote for anything that has McCain in the driver’s seat of our nation’s future, frankly.
My predictions for Florida:
McCain
Giuliani
Romney
Huckabee
Thompson
My prediction for Florida is:
Guiliani
Romney
McCain
Huckster
Thompson
The reason I have Guliani winning it is because of early voting which some say is as high as 40 percent...at the time early voting started Guliani was the only one there. Plus McCain win in SC did not happen until after voting early began. Romney will get a big part of the 60 percent still needing to vote but not enough to win the entire thing.
I have said it before on a couple of threads that Mitt is so much smarter and more organized than the rest it is hardly fair. Did you see the list of people in Florida that has endorsed Mitt. You think they just decided to do that yesterday? I bet he or someone in his organization has every single elected official and community leader on their speed dial.
He know when to fight and when to save his fire. He left SC and let the rest bankrupt themselves while he went off to Nevada and picked up a bunch of delegates. SC knocked off Fred, and severly wounded Huck.
He has chosen to fight in Florida, that is no accident, he has more money, more organization, and a closed primary. He will knock off Guiliani and McCain in one shot.
Good analysis, calvo. Go Mitt!
He will need to use a lot of money in Florida. Giuliani and McCain are getting the free media at least 3 to 1 over Romney.
I wouldn’t call it guts, i’d call it common sense. The writing is on the wall that Thompson is exiting the race. Hell, he’s not even going to be at the debate. I don’t want a RINO anymore than you do but damn it, I will not vote for McCain and i’m not going to stay home and suck my thumb and allow Hillary to just waltz to the Presidency.
I’m a Fred supporter who will vote Romney if Fred loses. That’s because I have faith that the mechanisms of government will prevent anyone’s religion from playing too large a role as POTUS. My mom is not a political junkie like me, however. She had a visceral reaction to that documentary on Mormonism, and she won’t vote for the guy. She’ll stay home if he’s the nominee.
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