Why Hillary Won (Op-Ed by Karl Rove)

Wall Street Journal ^ | January 10, 2008 | Karl Rove

[RWR8189]

What would Shakespeare's Jack Cade say after the New Hampshire Democratic primary? Maybe the demagogue in "Henry VI" would call for the pollsters to be killed first, not the lawyers.

The opinion researchers find themselves in a difficult place after most predicted a big Obama sweep. It's not their fault. The dirty secret is it is hard to accurately poll a primary. The unpredictability of who will turn out and what the mix of voters will be makes polling a primary election like reading chicken entrails -- ugly, smelly and not very enlightening. Our media culture endows polls -- especially exit polls -- with scientific precision they simply don't have.

But more interesting than dissecting the pollsters is dissecting the election returns, precinct by precinct. Sen. Hillary Clinton won working-class neighborhoods and less-affluent rural areas. Sen. Barack Obama won the college towns and the gentrified neighborhoods of more affluent communities. Put another way, Mrs. Clinton won the beer drinkers, Mr. Obama the white wine crowd. And there are more beer drinkers than wine swillers in the Democratic Party.

Mrs. Clinton won a narrow victory in New Hampshire for four reasons. First, her campaign made a smart decision at its start to target women Democrats, especially single women. It has been made part of the warp and woof of her campaign everywhere. This focus didn't pay off in Iowa, but it did in New Hampshire.

[peyton randolph]

Mrs. Clinton's emotional reply was powerful and warm...And unlike her often contrived and calculated attempts to appear down-to-earth, this was real.

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B.S. About as real as Slick Sociopath Willie's crying at Ron Brown's funeral.

[Anti-Bubba182]

Rove may be right about Hillary and the moment with Barak Obama where he say she is "likeable enough" was "trash talking". It did not seem like a big deal to me. Maybe it was to touchy douche bags, just like the snif snif moment.

Happy Sappy People. I wish I had their mailing list. I would make a million selling them Eco Friendly Green Horse Manure, _{suitable for a hookah}.^TM

[byteback]

Mr. Obama chose soaring rhetoric and inspirational rallies.

The Dems focus on electability more than is presented in the press. I was listening to kpig radio because I like alternative music and that is an extremely radical radio station from Santa Cruz. It's Bezerkely but with great music. There was a station editorial that said that the Hillary win saved the party because she (in the mind of the editorialist) can win and Obama can't. Then he tore me up when he said she is the most ready to lead the nation out of the gate since Jimmy Carter. I can't make this stuff up.

[Gondring]

When it comes to making the case against Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama comes across as a vitamin-starved Adlai Stevenson.

LOL

The other personal moment came on Monday, when a woman in Portsmouth asked her "how do you do it?" Mrs. Clinton's emotional reply was powerful and warm. Voters rarely see her in such a spontaneous moment. It was humanizing and appealing. And unlike her often contrived and calculated attempts to appear down-to-earth, this was real.

I am not too sure it was real.

[Gondring]

Rove may be right about Hillary and the moment with Barak Obama where he say she is "likeable enough" was "trash talking". It did not seem like a big deal to me

Same here. But then again, I am more interested in substance than in the repartee.

[Proud_USA_Republican]

I was not surprised Hillary won NH. Its one of the biggest limousine liberal enclaves in the U.S. Loaded with Manhattanites who have residences in both states.

South Carolina is going to be different story. Thats going to be a real test for the dems. Hillary isn’t worshiped down there the way she is in the north east. Many won’t buy her fake southern accent.

[MNJohnnie]

She won because the pre election polls told the Independents, who can vote in either primary, that Obama was a lock and the Republican race was deadlocked. So the Independents went and voted for McCain since “Obama was going to win anyway”

But I know, Karl has a whole article to write and the above explanation would leave him short a few thousand words.

[Perchant]

The only good political news to happen in the last couple of years was Rove’s departure. We had about 6 years of hearing about how the destruction of conservatism was some clever Rovian tactic towards some positive ends.

Now the same clowns assure us that this destruction of the Republican Party is a “Bush poker hand”. Uh, good luck with that.

[decal]

“Third, the Clintons began — at first not very artfully — to raise questions about the fitness for the Oval Office of a first-term senator with no real accomplishments or experience.”

As opposed to a second-term Senator with no real accomplishments or experience - hokay.

[karnage]

According to the chicken entrails I read, Rove considers Obama a tougher general election opponent than Mrs. Bill, so he is trying to aid her cause with columns like this.

[napscoordinator]

South Carolina is going to be different story. Thats going to be a real test for the dems. Hillary isn’t worshiped down there the way she is in the north east. Many won’t buy her fake southern accent.

So you want Obama to win the nomination? I think that is a huge mistake for conservatives to hope for. I predict that if Obama makes the nomination he will win no matter who we put up. Our best chance to win is with Hillary. I don’t understand why more folks don’t understand this.

[Blind Eye Jones]

You must be reading between the entrails. I think both parties would gain from his article.

[peyton randolph]

I predict that if Obama makes the nomination he will win no matter who we put up. Our best chance to win is with Hillary. I don’t understand why more folks don’t understand this.

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Barack Hussein Obama will never be President of the U.S. He is an apostate Muslim. That's a deal-breaker both for the Islamists and the majority of Americans.

[webheart]

Our best chance to win is with Hillary.

I'm still waiting for Edwards to win a primary, and be named the new Comeback Kid of the Week. After that, he'll be the one that they nominate, and that will be that. see also Wilder Effect

[drubyfive]

Couldn’t agree with you more about KPIG. Wish they would bring back Dallas Dobro.

[AlanGreenSpam]

Nope, OBAMA will be easy to dismantle (Romney is probably the best Alpha male to do it, IMHO).

Karl Rove says it very well in the WSJ editorial above:

-—”Former President Bill Clinton hit a nerve by drawing attention to Mr. Obama’s conflicting statements on Iraq. There’s more — and more powerful — material available. Mr. Obama has failed to rise to leadership on a single major issue in the Senate. In the Illinois legislature, he had a habit of ducking major issues, voting “present” on bills important to many Democratic interest groups, like abortion-rights and gun-control advocates. He is often lazy, given to misstatements and exaggerations and, when he doesn’t know the answer, too ready to try to bluff his way through.

For someone who talks about a new, positive style of politics and pledges to be true to his word, Mr. Obama too often practices the old style of politics, saying one thing and doing another. He won’t escape criticism on all this easily. But the messenger and the message need to be better before the Clintons can get all this across. Hitting Mr. Obama on his elementary school essays won’t cut it.

[aviator]

All the NH votes were inflated by folks driving in from neighboring states. They can legally vote in NH if they claim they have intent to move there.

[napscoordinator]

From your lips to God’s Ears. The problem is America loves a smooth talker regardless of negatives.

[Halgr]

I agree with your point of view and analysis...we NEED Hillary to win so that WE CAN WIN!!!!

I am baffled that so many sheeple who claim to be dems are so enthralled with Obama.....he says nothing of substance, and reminds me of a snake oil salesman....

But the dems are emotional and not critical thinkers for the most part....