[Pikachu_Dad]

She has a slight negative trend in percentage.
40.15% - 1.83 * Percentage R2 = 0.4804.

So I would estimate she would finish with 38.3% of the vote.

Obama has a better positive trend going and a better regression fit.
33.9% + 5.09 * Percentage R2 = 0.6641

Based on that trend, he would end with 39.0%

So at best, its going to be very close...

[CedarDave]

She has a slight negative trend in percentage. 40.15% - 1.83 * Percentage R2 = 0.4804.
So I would estimate she would finish with 38.3% of the vote.
Obama has a better positive trend going and a better regression fit.
33.9% + 5.09 * Percentage R2 = 0.6641
Based on that trend, he would end with 39.0%

Reading your posts bring on déjà vu. I remember you doing a similar statistical analysis between Mexican candidates Calderón and Obrador. And that was a long night(s?).