Unfortunately, it’s mostly just the effect of the increasing percentage of the total count coming in. She’s held the 3.5 figure for over an hour, with the exception of a period of about ten minutes when Obama closed to around two thousand. There was then a sudden increase of almost two thousand votes in her total. So, anyway, 3500’s about where it’s been for quite a while.
She has a slight negative trend in percentage.
40.15% - 1.83 * Percentage R2 = 0.4804.
So I would estimate she would finish with 38.3% of the vote.
Obama has a better positive trend going and a better regression fit.
33.9% + 5.09 * Percentage R2 = 0.6641
Based on that trend, he would end with 39.0%
So at best, its going to be very close...