Why do Freepers Support a Different Candidate than Polltakers?

1/1/2008 | me

[amordei]

I support Fred Thompson as do a far majority of FreeRepublic members. However, polls of Iowa voters, NH voters, national voters, etc. all place Fred way back in the pack. Why is that? Is it bad polling, e.g., oversampling non-Republicans, unlikely voters, etc.? I just can't believe that we are that far from standard Republican opinion. If we are, may God have mercy on us all. ;->

[Bosco]

I just can't believe that we are that far from standard Republican opinion.

I do.

I haven't done a statistical analysis, but it's overwhelmingly Fred here at FR. Just look at all of the polls here. But if one looks at the national polls (including Fox's web site), Fred isn't in the top 3 or 4 for that matter. I have yet to see any national polls that he is a leader in.

And even if the pollsters were biased, in order to maintain a shred of integrity there would have to be some semblance of reality with their numbers. Candidates/news organizations DO check the polling companies for accuracy, you know. If they are not accurate, they lose business.

FR is a Fred Haven, and that's fine.

But in order for Fred to get traction, Friends of Fred need to get off the plantation and talk to the rest of the GOP.

At this point I believe the FR Fred supporters are just spinning their wheels with supporters of other candidates here at FreeRepublic and becoming hard to bear at times. People do get to make their own choices, you know.

[Freedom4US]

Polling isn’t for gauging public opinion so much than shaping it. Once you understand that, then it starts to make sense.

[Wings-n-Wind]

Thanks to all... especially for the link...

HNY...

[lolhelp]

So you right side is as empty as your head. You have to go back to start to get there.

[USNBandit]

Here's another question. Do you support Fred because you know Hunter can't win?

[pgkdan]

I was too lazy to do the actual research...thanks!!!

[festus]

I’m like you. Someone gave it to me. Pass it on.

[Graybeard58]

I think it's because we read and research and know a lot more about the political landscape and the players than does the average American voter.

[ishabibble]

The MSM is working from a script. They are propelling the hype, the images, and the polls. People are so used to TV, they just soak it up and spit it out. That’s called “polling”.

[gidget7]

These are all DBM polls. They do not want a Conservative winning the Primary, ANY Conservative. Thus polls that reflect any Conservative ahead will never be reported. The more Conservative the candidate, the lower the polls will show.

Think back to the Primaries when Reagan was running. These media pollsters fear a repeat of Reagans win, cuz even they know, Conservatism wins every time it’s tried.

[Graybeard58]

He's spent every day in Iowa lately. I'd hate to have to do that.

I spend practically every day of my life in Illinois, which is the same thing except I believe Iowa is red and Illinois couldn't be any bluer.

[Bluestateredman]

“Let’s say that is true (I don’t personally believe it). Why do non-Freepers react to that more strongly than we do?”

Because your average American voter gets all of his information from television.

[SwinneySwitch]

May God have mercy on us all.

[rightwingintelligentsia]

However, looking at the poll variances, it seems to me that we’re on two different worlds.

Which is why, as I've said before, we can't assume that the general public--even the majority of Republicans--is going to draw the same conclusions about issues or this election that we do. At FR, we often live in a bubble, talking to others who more or less share our world view.

That's why candidates that FReepers have deemed "unelectable" are showing far better than anyone here expects, and others like Fred aren't doing nearly as well. Unfortunate, but we have to face facts.

[Graybeard58]

Freepers all speak English?

Very good point. Only some are gooder at it than others.

[gidget7]

I actually think the last few years proves my point. The national party got off the reservation on a whole bunch of issues and has seen the rank and file desert them.

And you would be right about that, sad as it is.

[bluebeak]

Media/Democrats want to run against Rudy, Huckabee, or Romney. Who will then get savaged by the media and Hillary will be the next president. Thompson or McCain would be much tougher candidates against her.

[Caramelgal]

I all depends upon the poll. Some polls are of registered voters and some are of “most likely voters”. Some polls are very much agenda or candidate driven. They ask questions in such a way as to get the response they are looking for. Polls also can show a bias as to who they do not include. For instance if a poll asks you who you are most likely to vote for: Huckbee, Romney, Guiliani or McCain and doesn’t give you a choice to select an other candidate or none of the above, then poll is disingenuous and forces you to select the lesser of evils rather than your true candidate of choice.

I for one refuse to answer polls or surveys.

The only poll that really counts is the vote I cast on Election Day. I will not vote for the candidate leading in the polls, rather I will vote for the candidate I believe is best qualified to hold the office based on Constitutional principals. For me, right now, that means my vote will go to Fred Thompson.

I will vote my conscience not the vote that popularity and the MSM says I should vote for.

[Huck]

Yeah but that Jan 8th poll wasn't the last one they did. Dean's fall was showing up in polls ahead of the IA caucus, and Kerry and Edwards' surges were reported before the caucus as well. It wasn't a complete surprise.

This time round, the most up to date polling shows Huck and Romney fighting for first, McCain and Thompson fighting for 3rd.

[Huck]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-01-16-polls-iowa_x.htm