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Iowa Poll-apalooza! (Updated) (Pollsters May Have Skewed Poll Towards Huckabee)
The Weekly Standard ^ | 12/28/07 | Dean Barnett

Posted on 12/31/2007 6:18:24 AM PST by Reaganesque

Iowa Poll-apalooza! (Updated)

The L.A. Times conducted a widely discussed poll of Iowa and New Hampshire voters. In Iowa, the Times had Huckabee leading Romney 37%-23%. In her write-up of the poll results, Times staff writer Janet Hook oddly neglected to mention that the results among likely voters are much closer. Counting only the likely voters, Romney trailed 36%-28%.

Ms. Hook’s story on the poll reported Huckabee’s fourteen point lead as definitive. Why, even Hugh Hewitt didn’t notice the discrepancy between the “likely voters” result and the Times’ coverage of its own poll. To find the difference, you had to crack the poll's internals and scan all the way down to Question 34. Was it merely a sloppy write-up on Ms. Hook’s part or agenda journalism at work? I report, you decide.

There's another interesting aspect of the poll. It appears the LAT labeled 90% of the polled Republicans as likely voters. Given that adding the 10% of unlikely voters to the pool swelled Huckabee’s lead from 8% to 14%, it looks like the non-voting public absolutely adores Huckabee. One could infer from this result that Huckabee's support is strongest with the members of the public least engaged in the process and, more importantly, least likely to vote. This strange result may mean that as voting time nears and the “polling sample” narrows from 90% of Republicans with telephones to the relative sliver of the Iowa population that actually caucuses, Huckabee's support will further erode.

Of course, it's impossible (as the above analysis implies) that an unlikely voter pool of only 10% of the total could so dramatically impact the ultimate result. In defense of my obviously faulty analysis, the poll's internals regarding these figures are utterly inscrutable. If anyone can make sense of Questions 33 and 34 and figure out exactly what they're saying, please email me (soxblog@aol.com) or do a post on it. While you're at it, try to make sense of the LAT coverage of its own poll. You'll have mine and the blogosphere's eternal gratitude. I'm not promising anything, but if you do a real good job of it, I may even get you a Weekly Standard coffee mug as a belated Christmas gift.

Regardless of what's going on in Questions 33 and 34, the larger point seems to hold: Huckabee does significantly better among unlikely voters than likely voters. That could be portentous. Or maybe I’m a Romney supporter grasping at straws. You'll have to wait until Jay Cost comments to find out what the discrepancy really means.

In other Iowa polling news, Strategic Vision shows Huckabee leading Romney by two points, 29% - 27%. I regret to report, but feel obliged to do so nonetheless, that Strategic Vision's polling history does not jibe with my theory of the Iowa race being extremely fluid. SV has conducted four polls since December 6. Huckabee has led in all of them. His largest lead was six points in their December 18 poll. His smallest is the two point lead registered yesterday. One could view this as a trend, but given the small movements, statistical noise is a distinct (and more likely) possibility.

Nevertheless, I'm sticking to my guns – I still sense Huckabee’s support sliding away.

Posted by Dean Barnett on December 28, 2007 10:35 AM |



TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: huckabee; ia; ia2008; polls; romney
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To: samtheman

-— I’m certainly hoping he pounds the Hickster into the sand. I hate that guy. Really hate him.-—

Yep, the Hickabee is a Baptist version of Broderick Crawford in “All the King’s Men”.

“Now listen up, you hicks! You listen to me!”


21 posted on 12/31/2007 6:45:51 AM PST by claudiustg (You know it. I know it. I'm optimittstic!)
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To: abstracTT

It amazes me that some who claim to be conservative use birth control, drive humongous SUVs, wear flashy clothes and open-toed shoes, no head covering, watch sports on the Sabbath, collect Playboy magazine, or work in industries that promote global atmospheric and moral pollution. Yet many of us do. So under your litmus test, Ronald Wilson Reagan, would not have been conservative enough for your primary vote in 1980 or would he? I believe you need to look beyond the mis-guidance of some on here who for their own candidates sake want you to get your eye off the ball.

Romney will be a very good choice to oppose the Queen of Mean II. The choice is sharply defined if not as conservatively defined as you’d like it.


22 posted on 12/31/2007 6:46:02 AM PST by CARTOUCHE ( The pen is mightier than the sword and so much easier to conceal)
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To: abstracTT
it amazes me that conservatives are supporting huckabee and romney

And you would expect the cons to support Giuliani and McCain?

23 posted on 12/31/2007 6:46:28 AM PST by gdoubleaux
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To: Reaganesque

We could have an agreement on the Rit/Hunter ticket.

Romney just seems like a guy so eager to talk me into a new rig when I know what I already want and need.

Hunter..I heard that and my ears perked up as my best hunting dog is Hunter...but then I listened to him the man D. Hunter and I actually was Yes...

My Hunter is not up for polls put he does dang good out in the field..


24 posted on 12/31/2007 6:48:23 AM PST by Global2010 ( Ruler on your hands...bwaaahhhhaw I have an old steel embossed yard stick)
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To: Juan Medén
That looks like the first barrier free lifts we use in medical care.

‘cept minus the lynchie thingy.

25 posted on 12/31/2007 6:51:43 AM PST by Global2010 ( Ruler on your hands...bwaaahhhhaw I have an old steel embossed yard stick)
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To: Old Retired Army Guy

Just Damn. would work


26 posted on 12/31/2007 6:53:07 AM PST by Global2010 ( Ruler on your hands...bwaaahhhhaw I have an old steel embossed yard stick)
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To: Global2010

all you have to do is read over the candidates voting records and see how conservative they are.

i vote hunter, but thats just me.


27 posted on 12/31/2007 6:53:43 AM PST by abstracTT
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To: beefree

Alan Keyes /sarc


28 posted on 12/31/2007 6:53:56 AM PST by Global2010 ( Ruler on your hands...bwaaahhhhaw I have an old steel embossed yard stick)
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To: Reaganesque
I have never admonished you before, but now I must.

If you insist on portraying Mitt as a front runner in Iowa, they the media will return to the script of “Mitt Romney, the Republican money bags who bought the election....”

I prefer the: “Mitt Romney, the beleaguered underdog, who faced down religious discrimination, and the formidable opposition of a Republican circular firing squad...”

Now stick with the latter so the news out of Iowa will be Mitt’s spectacular win, instead of the “surprise” second place finish of _______(Fill in the blank).

29 posted on 12/31/2007 6:54:39 AM PST by mission9 (It ain't bragging if you can do it.)
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To: Reaganesque
"the outcome will be determined by who has the resources and organization to get their supporters to the polls on Friday"

Well I sincerely hope that the Huckabee, Romney, Paul, and McCain organizations do an outstanding job in getting their supporters to the caucuses on Friday.

(We Thompson supporters are going to get together for our caucus on Thursday Jan. 3)

30 posted on 12/31/2007 6:55:14 AM PST by 2111USMC (www.Fred08.com)
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To: Red Badger

Spot on! ya old Badger.


31 posted on 12/31/2007 6:57:02 AM PST by Global2010 ( Ruler on your hands...bwaaahhhhaw I have an old steel embossed yard stick)
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To: CARTOUCHE
Romney will be a very good choice to oppose the Queen of Mean II. The choice is sharply defined if not as conservatively defined as you’d like it.

If it's between Romney and Clinton....then I'll sit this one out.

It will be worse with Romney, cause he'll pass liberal agendas by appearing to be a consensus builder rather than to fight the liberal flow.

Clinton gets in, she'll overdo it like all the libs, with no backbone she'll cave in like Pelosi and at least if the dems pass liberal measures that destroy our economy, they'll get blamed and not Republicans.

I'm never voting for a RINO. I urge all to either vote conservative if you have a choice of just let the dems run the truck into the ditch.

We as conservatives with a good work ethic will always end up on top. I made a mint when the first blow job President was elected. We won most of the governorships, state legislatures, congress and the senate.

screw the libs, especially RINO's.

Always have your enemy in front of you where you can keep your eyes on him/her. Never let your enemy put his arm around your shoulder and a knife in your back.

I learned with Governor "nice hair" Perry. He's Governor Romney's twin sister down here in Texas.

32 posted on 12/31/2007 7:00:21 AM PST by Dick Vomer (liberals suck....... but it depends on what your definition of the word "suck" is.,)
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To: Emrys
And the SF chronicle review would be the man standing on his theater chair and clapping?
33 posted on 12/31/2007 7:00:21 AM PST by Global2010 ( Ruler on your hands...bwaaahhhhaw I have an old steel embossed yard stick)
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To: Prophet in the wilderness

bingo!


34 posted on 12/31/2007 7:00:58 AM PST by Dick Vomer (liberals suck....... but it depends on what your definition of the word "suck" is.,)
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To: claudiustg
Huck=


35 posted on 12/31/2007 7:03:56 AM PST by Dick Vomer (liberals suck....... but it depends on what your definition of the word "suck" is.,)
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To: Prophet in the wilderness

I dig Hunter, Thompson’s okay. Candidate calculator matches me to Romney, but my belly says “not him.” I will block the Dems in any event. Does Hunter have a chance? Clinton will not win unless we are raptured first ;)


36 posted on 12/31/2007 7:03:59 AM PST by beefree (God= OmniScience)
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To: 2111USMC

Anybody have any comment on the speculation that Bloomberg may take his “Billions” and enter this thing as an Independent? Who does that hurt? Who does that help? Or, can he win it? I haven’t got a clue?


37 posted on 12/31/2007 7:04:26 AM PST by Old Retired Army Guy (tHE)
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To: CARTOUCHE
WTHeck.... I remember Reagan in Cali... Turned folks out by the bus load in the middle of the night to free them from mental institutes..

Hence we now have Berkley.

38 posted on 12/31/2007 7:04:59 AM PST by Global2010 ( Ruler on your hands...bwaaahhhhaw I have an old steel embossed yard stick)
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To: abstracTT

I am with you.

100%


39 posted on 12/31/2007 7:08:04 AM PST by Global2010 ( Ruler on your hands...bwaaahhhhaw I have an old steel embossed yard stick)
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To: Dick Vomer

That is really creepy Vomer.

Realistic but creepy.


40 posted on 12/31/2007 7:10:40 AM PST by Global2010 ( Ruler on your hands...bwaaahhhhaw I have an old steel embossed yard stick)
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