Posted on 12/27/2007 5:12:06 AM PST by COUNTrecount
According to this article rail services have not yet been restored and there appears to be serious problems with crude and oil supply. Sounds like, at least, Islamabad is still in shut down mode
http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=11976
Oil stocks deplete as economic shutdown continues
Electricity generation may halt for Punjab, NWFP and Balochistan
By Dilshad Azeem
ISLAMABAD: The crippling effect of the complete economic shutdown following Benazir Bhutto’s tragic assassination is likely to impact oil refining soon if supplies of crude and furnace oil are not restored, further complicating the overall supply situation and the worsening law and order, experts and officials say.
The power crisis may worsen in the next couple of days as furnace oil supply is completely suspended and stocks would only last for a few days to continue electricity generation particularly for Punjab, NWFP and Balochistan.
“If rail and road services are not restored immediately, it is feared that key powerhouses and some oil refineries, including Attock Refinery, may stop electricity generation and oil production due to non-availability of furnace and crude oil respectively,” official sources told The News here on Saturday.
The Attock Oil Refinery, having capacity of refining oil up to 13,000 to 15,000 barrels per day, may stop production in a day or two as supply line from Karachi is halted since last Thursday evening, the officials said.
“We maintain stocks of furnace oil for about 10 days to ensure electricity generation from the existing powerhouses and definitely there will be a severe problem because its supply is zero at present,” the official sources at Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) said.
The same officials maintained that furnace oil up to 20,000 to 22,000 tons daily was the
total requirement of the powerhouses.
“There may not be immediate problem at Karachi and Hub but severe crisis as far as rest of the country is concerned.”
Apart from loss of life in dozens in December 27 tragic incident and its aftermath, the relevant authorities see financial losses in billions.
“It is an economic shutdown but the government is trying to maintain law and order and will ultimately restore the supply line whether its fuel or daily use items,” Caretaker Finance Minister Dr Salman Shah said when contacted.
Apart from already reduced strategic oil stocks, the suspension of fuel supply and a complete halt in transportation of daily use items are not only causing shortage of commodities but also pushing prices beyond the reach of common people.
Shah was worried about the tense situation prevailing throughout the country and the complete economic halt in the routine working. “It is a great financial loss to the country and we are trying our level best to bring the situation back to normal.”
The finance minister said private sector had a pivotal role in restoration of the supply lines, particularly of petrol from Karachi to other parts of the country.
“Our emphasis is to provide security to the private sector so that the major traffic is restored.”
In response to a question about the estimated financial losses to the country, the finance minister said that the government’s priority was to maintain law and order. “The losses in terms of finance are obviously tremendous and unbelievable.”
Shah further said that there was no second opinion about the December 27 tragedy but the economic business of the country should not be stopped. “It is the duty of every one to help the government in restoring the law and order and supply lines.”
“As the people are already suffering with many articles unavailable, the situation can deteriorate if immediate restoration of supply of fuel and the essential commodities is not done,” said one of the traders here at the local market.
The petrol pumps and the CNG stations remained closed and their stocks are going to be eaten up by the transport vehicles standing without fuel in
the last three days since the tragic assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
Though some of the petrol pumps and the CNG stations provided fuel to the vehicles under the umbrella of law enforcement agencies yet the major concern remains smooth supply that may not reach immediately.
In the federal capital, the people had to abandon their vehicles due to non-availability of the fuel as the petrol pumps and CNG stations are not ready to open due to fear of attacks by miscreants.
No video here, on dialup. Will hold comments on unrest till later in this post.
Assuming Al Qaeda was behind Bhutto’s assassination, (no change in opinion here, still proceeding as if all suspects are guilty), here is a possible view of one larger objective:
“PARACHINAR, Dec 30: A sixteen-member jirga is holding talks with representatives of the warring factions in Kurram Agency in an effort to broker a ceasefire in
the area.
Sources said the jirga comprising elders of rival sects from Hangu district and Orakzai Agency arrived here on Saturday and held talks with representatives of the Turi
tribe on Sunday.
The jirga will proceed to Sadda on Monday for talks with tribesmen in Lower Kurram.
Ali Akbar, a representative of the Turi tribe, told Dawn that they had given their viewpoint and suggestions to the jirga. “But without an immediate ceasefire such talks
may not produce the desired results,” he warned.
Earlier, a jirga formed by the government failed to persuade the rival groups to agree to a truce.
Sources said that fierce clashes continued in lower parts of the tribal area and about 600 militants were seen heading from North and South Waziristan agencies were
seen advancing towards Kurram.
The sources said that 20 people, including 16 militants, were killed and nine others suffered injuries in a gunbattle near Lower Kurram’s Mingak area on Saturday
night.
The clashes have left over 200 people dead. The situation continues to deteriorate and local people are facing a severe shortage of food items and medicines.”
http://www.dawn.com/2007/12/31/top10.htm
Recently, the area just north of Parachinar was Osama bin Laden’s territory, aka Tora Bora. Parachinar and surroundings fell most under the influence of Gulbuddin Hekmatyr. Just south of there, Haqqani held sway, see the now famous battle of Zawar Killi for more information. Furthest south, around Miram Shah and points west was bin Laden’s (and Azzam, under the MAK) original territory during the Afghan-Russian wars of the 1980s. Tora Bora was a stronghold Osama acquired much later, after his return to Afghanistan from Sudan.
It is my belief that cooperation between Bin Laden and Haqqani has been much stronger than that between Bin Laden or Haqqani and Hekmatyr. Hekmatyr is a wild card, with his own agenda, the same man who shelled Kabul itself when Masood and others cut him out of ultimate victory when the Soviet puppet government finally collapsed and the mujahideen moved in to take control. From this report, troops are moving north from North and South Waziristan to reinforce fighters already in the area, and furthe,r Parachinar and most of the Parrot’s Beak area is cut off from the rest of Pakistan.
“PESHAWAR, Dec 30: The people of Parachinar have to go to Peshawar via Kabul because of continued blockade of the main routes connecting the violence-hit
Kurram Agency with other parts of the country.
One Shafiullah Khan of Parachinar, told this correspondent that he had to cross into Khost province of Afghanistan and then proceed to Kabul for an onward journey
to Peshawar. “I paid Rs9,000 to my Afghan guide who facilitated me from Khost to Kabul and then Jalalabad city,” said the youngster who had to catch a flight to
Kuwait from Peshawar.
Inhabitants of parts of Kurram Agency, about 280km west of Peshawar, have been cut off from the rest of the country since Nov 16 because of blockade of roads
by rival factions.
Sources said people of the area were mulling different options, including seeking assistance from the Afghan government, to cope with the situation. “If we feel that
Islamabad deliberately ignores the situation, we will think over other options,” said an elder of the area.
“We believe that the government will pay attention to the situation and the quarters concerned will fulfil their responsibilities,” he maintained.
Pilgrims, students and professionals were forced to take the risk of coming to Peshawar through Afghan territory without visas, the sources said.
People of the region are also relying on Afghanistan to get medicines, food and fuel.
The government is using helicopters to dispatch medicines and evacuate stranded people from Parachinar.
A resident said that the price of an 80kg flour sack was Rs2 ,600 in and around the city, which has been under curfew since Nov 16.”
http://www.dawn.com/2007/12/31/top12.htm
If there is a connection between Al Qaeda/the Taliban, the fighting going on around Parachinar, and the assasination of Bhutto, then Bin Laden would have wanted to use the unrest following Bhutto’s assassination to cover his aggression, expecting the FIRST major assassination attempt to succeed, as this current rounds of fighting began on or about November 16th.
Note the significant “If” beginning last paragraph, this is a possibility, nothing more. However, control of Parachinar benefits Bin Laden in numerous ways.
1. It would link traditional Al Qaeda/Taliban strongholds further south, with Tora Bora and those approaches to Jalalabad. At such a point, the hardline islamists would hold (or at least contest) a united stripe of territory all the way from South Waziristan, up to and including cutting the main highway from Pakistan to Kabul.
2. The Parrot’s Beak area presents border crossings into Afghanistan on three sides, increasing access options to both Khost and Gardez, not only offering access towards the Shah-I-Khot Valley, (Operation Anaconda) but also frontage onto the Kabul-Khandahar highway. This threatens’ Kabul’s second and only other viable lifeline that benefits Western interests. With mountains closing off western approaches to Kabul, with the Jalalabad and Khandahar highways blocked or threatened, the only main road leading to Kabul is north, through the Salang tunnel towards Tajikstan and Uzbekistan. With souring relations between the US and Russia, such a development would be significant.
During Operation Mountain Storm, in 2004, the Taliban/AQ remnants were largely confined to the Shawal Valley and points northwest in isolated territory. The Pak army moved into Wana and north, while the US formed a blocking line from Shkin to Gardez in Afghanistan. The plan was to have the Pak army thrust west from Razmak, closing the fourth side of the box, pinning the Islamists in the Shawal for final destruction, but the Pak army was never able to complete the drive to close the northern edge of the perimeter.
Since Musharraf’s capitulation to the tribals, the Taliban/AQ remnant has grown and prospered and driven north, now or soon controlling a T shaped area from southeast of Kabul, to southwest of Peshawar, and all the way south past Wana, probably eventually towards Quetta.
Such a sanctuary, in those rugged mountains, would have the utmost significance for the long term viability of the Karzai government, and western influence in Kabul.
If the Bhutto assassination is one part of that whole, the islamists gain the additional cover the current chaos offers, plus increased sway in Pak politics as well.
Again, just a possibility, but the maps and subsequent advantages, strategic, tactical, and logistical, appear to be more than coincidence.
Perhaps when Petraeus finishes his work in Iraq, he could find employment taking these rugged mountain strongholds away from our 9/11 enemy. In any event, given the numerous isolated accessways to this area, Petraeus’ tactic of co-opting the natives, showing them the difference between the Taliban and open democracy, offer the best long term solution, assuming we can get official Pakistan onboard.
I’m beginning to believe that this expansion of the enemy’s strategic influence, is the primary reason for the rift (or open break) in relations between the US and Musharraf.
****************
On the unrest in Pakistan, the mass demonstrations can be expected to die out as the average man runs out of food, fuel, and energy. The depletion curve was seen during the LA/King riots, as was the (opposing) mobilization curve of official authority.
According to Dawn, the Pak capitol Islamabad/Rawalpindi, were quiet Sunday, but nearly all gas stations were still closed, and traffic on the streets was light.
Energywise, Pakistan is now moving fuel by military convoy, but retail sales are disrupted by local damage, to gas pumps and small tanker filling facilities. Electrical demand is way down because of factories shut by the violence, and Pakistan is well used to long electrical outages:
ISLAMABAD, Dec 30: Oil supplies to almost all parts of the country resumed on Sunday after the armed forces provided
security to oil tankers, but retail sales would remain affected for sometime, official and market sources said.
A senior official told Dawn that the ministries of interior, defence and petroleum and natural resources remained engaged in
making arrangements to overcome supply disruptions caused by miscreants in the garb of protesting political workers after
the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.
He said it was decided that oil tankers would move in convoys in the entire Sindh and some parts of Balochistan under the
security cover to be provided by military trucks. Some convoys had started leaving petroleum depots to provide oil
products to retail outlets, he added.
However, the official said that retail sales in some areas of Sindh would remain suspended for about a month or so because
miscreants had damaged outlets’ dispensers. He said about 45 petrol pumps had been destroyed in Karachi and interior
Sindh. A twin-dispenser costs around Rs6-8 million and takes almost a month to be imported and installed.
He said that the stock position of petroleum products had improved over the past few days mainly because of disruption of normal after the government had
announced three-day mourning. “Even in areas like the NWFP where oil companies were facing shortages, stocks have been replenished.”
The official said that furnace oil stocks had decreased over the past few days because of disruption in the movement of crude oil, and refineries in the upcountry were
unable to produce sufficient quantities. However, he said that the supply of crude oil had been resumed and refining would become normal in two days.Refineries in
Karachi and mid-country had enough stocks, but their supplies were disrupted because of the law and order situation.
Moreover, electricity consumption in almost the entire country had reduced significantly because of the suspension of industrial and commercial activities. Resultantly,
the furnace oil consumptions had also declined.
Market sources said that business activities would remain affected for some time.”
http://www.dawn.com/2007/12/31/top14.htm
As of today, Monday, more traffic is appearing on the roads across Pakistan:
Pakistanis get back to routines as mourning period ends KARACHI, Dec 31 (AFP) - Millions of Pakistanis ventured out into the streets of major cities for the first time in three
days Monday, as violence eased after an official mourning period for slain politician Benazir Bhutto. Many shops, banks and petrol stations reopened to allow people to get fresh supplies,
while private cars, taxis and some buses took to the streets again after a weekend of paralysis in the country. But as daily life returned to normal, the country was still grappling with the
fallout from the killing. Pakistan’s Karachi Stock Exchange was down 4.7 percent at mid-day in one of the sharpest slides in the bourse’s history. In Islamabad, the streets were busy with
traffic again Monday as petrol stations resumed fuel supplies and many restaurants were again open for business. Bazaars and shops opened in Lahore and traffic was moving again after
petrol stations opened, residents said. Court workers also returned. In Peshawar there was no disruption, with commercial plazas open and traffic heavy as normal. Relative calm returned to
Balochistan province, as buses, cars and motorbikes were again out on the roads. (Posted @ 15:20 PST)
...however, the official death toll, per the government, has remained steady, at 19 on Friday, 38 on Saturday, and 58 as of the close of business Sunday, 20 per day, give or take.
To summarize the situation, people have to eat. They don’t eat if they’re rioting, and the supplies don’t move either. After 72 hours or so, the large scale riots tend to self dampen, as the people put their survival needs ahead of their rage.
That does not mean the risk is past. The professional jihadis can and probably will attempt to use much smaller forces to amplify the strategic disruption to Pak stability.
The rail system has been heavily damaged. Petrol stocks and infrastructure likewise. Further attacks focused on this infrastructure will keep up the pressure on Musharraf’s government, even if the mobs subside.
The next few days (5 to 7) will tell the story, if a concerted effort to overthrow Musharraf is underway. If the “miscreants” are willing to settle for an incremental gain in territory around the Parrot’s Beak, we should know that too.
The most likely perpetrators of the organized, armed rebellion, the hard line Islamists, really don’t have a dog in the election race. Nawaz Sharif is probably the closest, but I wouldn’t call him a Taliban ally.
The PPP has called for elections on schedule, and Nawaz has reversed his decision to boycott the election, siding with the PPP in calling for elections on January 8th.
Official sources say the decision when to hold elections will be made Tuesday.
With January 8th fast approaching, I can see all opposition to Musharraf maintaining major pressure through violence through that date, with post election poredictions impossible.
If the elections are postponed, a new round of mob violence will likely result, but it will be much more difficult to maintain high pressure through large scle violence, for months, until the election, as opposed to weeks.
At this point, Musharraf has many reasons to delay the elections, and Bhutto and Sharif both have as many reasons to back scheduled elections.
That’s all I have for now.
Something to add:
If Musharraf were behind, or aware of the successful attempt on Bhutto, in advance, he would easily have forseen the unrest to follow. Instead of taking at least three days to even begin mobilizing large forces to quell the violence, he would have had plans ready to activate the minute the shooter succeeded.
The slow response of the military, is, in my opinion, the best evidence we have that Musharraf did NOT kill Bhutto, or even stand aside while others did so.
A Blackwater spokesman confirmed the negotiations. “We were approached to provide prime minister Bhutto’s security, but an agreement was unfortunately never reached,” she said. She declined to go into the precise details.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/12/30/wbhutto230.xml
Ain't that the truth.
Thanks for the time you took to research.
If war breaks out between India and Pakistan, count on China to look for an excuse to take advantage of it. One possibility is that China would send in troops to occupy part of India. It seems to me less likely that China would occupy Pakistan and thereby infuriate the Islamic extremists
Its about time the media talked about what this woman actually was.
Thanks.
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