‘If you want to talk about other issues, that’s for different topics, but I will point out if your only reason for not liking Thompson or Hunter is that you’re disappointed in their polling status, you’re doing yourself a disservice. The only polls that matter are the ones where they actually count votes. Let’s see how those go before we write anyone off, shall we?’
That only works for those polling above 15 points. If you are below that, your long shot candidacy is in deep trouble. Your donations, such as they are, remain stagnant, just like your poll numbers.
Nobody under 15 percent in the polls today will gain the nomination, based on past performance going back several decades. I do myself a ‘disservice’ by wasting time on them in my experience.
It's an arbitrary number. With the Iowa caucuses coming up, and 60% of likely caucuses saying they could still change their minds, I'd say anyone could still be a surprise. Personally, I doubt it will be Paul or Hunter, but it is possible.
Of the others, they are all significant enough nationally that they are "in play". In fact, Huckabee is the least strong in this department, being a "national" presence only by a short-term "boomlet" in the polls that is already starting to fade. In the meantime, you have Thompson working a strong ground game in Iowa, and starting to show results there accordingly, both in endorsements and in some polls.
There's no point quitting at the end of the 3rd quarter when you're only down by 14 points.
The latter part of your statement is incorrect. Just one presidential primary ago, Kerry was at 9% -- only three points ahead of Sharpton -- four days before the Iowa Cauci.
http://web.archive.org/web/20040209052946/www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm
No one has a clue what's going to happen. I will venture that this stuff from Romney is probably not going to help him. But beyond that, only time will tell.