Scientists say asteroid may hit Mars in late January (1 in 75 chance on Jan. 30, 2008)

ap on Examiner.com ^ | 12/20/07 | Alicia Chang - ap

[NormsRevenge]

LOS ANGELES (Map, News) - Mars could be in for an asteroid hit.

A newly discovered hunk of space rock has a 1 in 75 chance of slamming into the Red Planet on Jan. 30, scientists said Thursday.

"These odds are extremely unusual. We frequently work with really long odds when we track ... threatening asteroids," said Steve Chesley, an astronomer with the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

The asteroid, known as 2007 WD5, was discovered in late November and is similar in size to the Tunguska object that hit remote central Siberia in 1908, unleashing energy equivalent to a 15-megaton nuclear bomb that wiped out 60 million trees.

Scientists tracking the asteroid, which is halfway to Mars, initially put the odds of impact at 1 in 350 and increased the chances this week after analyzing the data. Scientists expect the odds to diminish again early next month after getting new observations of the asteroid's orbit, Chesley said.

"We know that it's going to fly by Mars and most likely going to miss, but there's a possibility of an impact," he said.

If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it'll likely aim near the equator close to where the rover Opportunity has been exploring the Martian plains since 2004. The robot is not in danger because it lies outside the impact zone. Speeding at 8 miles a second, a collision would carve a hole the size of the famed Meteor Crater in Arizona.

In 2004, fragments of the comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 smacked into Jupiter, creating a series of overlapping fireballs in space. Astronomers have yet to witness an asteroid impact with another planet.

"Unlike an Earth impact, we're not afraid, but we're excited," Chesley said.

[Lokibob]

Anti-space people do not understand the the money spent for space exploration is spent right here on earth. It is not shot off into space.

.....Bob

[RightWhale]

a life boat for the ISS

There's a few billion dollars a year in maintenance. Something cheaper should be desired.

[editor-surveyor]

That would be cool!

Maybe even better than the Jupiter hit.

[Lokibob]

Here is the NASA release:

 

Astronomers Monitor Asteroid to Pass Near Mars

12.21.07

 

This artist rendering uses an arrow to show the predicted path of the asteroid on Jan. 30, 2008, and the orange swath indicates the area it is expected to pass through. Mars may or may not be in its path. Image credit: NASA/JPL
›  Larger view (485Kb)
›  Podcast: Is an Asteroid Heading Toward Mars? WASHINGTON - Astronomers funded by NASA are monitoring the trajectory of an asteroid estimated to be 50 meters (164 feet) wide that is expected to cross Mars' orbital path early next year. Observations provided by the astronomers and analyzed by NASA's Near-Earth Object Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., indicate the object may pass within 30,000 miles of Mars at about 6 a.m. EST (3 a.m. PST) on Jan. 30, 2008.

"Right now asteroid 2007 WD5 is about half-way between Earth and Mars and closing the distance at a speed of about 27,900 miles per hour," said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Office at JPL. "Over the next five weeks, we hope to gather more information from observatories so we can further refine the asteroid's trajectory."

NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth. The Near Earth Object Observation Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," plots the orbits of these objects to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.

Asteroid 2007 WD5 was first discovered on Nov. 20, 2007, by the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey and put on a "watch list" because its orbit passes near Earth. Further observations from both the NASA-funded Spacewatch at Kitt Peak, Ariz., and the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico gave scientists enough data to determine that the asteroid was not a danger to Earth, but could potentially impact Mars. This makes it a member of an interesting class of small objects that are both near Earth objects and "Mars crossers."

Because of current uncertainties about the asteroid's exact orbit, there is a 1-in-75 chance of 2007 WD5 impacting Mars. If this unlikely event were to occur, it would be somewhere within a broad swath across the planet north of where the Opportunity rover is located.

"We estimate such impacts occur on Mars every thousand years or so," said Steve Chesley, a scientist at JPL. "If 2007 WD5 were to thump Mars on Jan. 30, we calculate it would hit at about 30,000 miles per hour and might create a crater more than half-a-mile wide." The Mars Rover Opportunity is exploring a crater approximately this size right now.

Such a collision could release about three megatons of energy. Scientists believe an event of comparable magnitude occurred here on Earth in 1908 in Tunguska, Siberia, but no crater was created. The object was disintegrated by Earth's thicker atmosphere before it hit the ground, although the air blast devastated a large area of unpopulated forest.

NASA and its partners will continue to track asteroid 2007 WD5 and will provide an update in January when further information is available. For more information on the Near Earth Object program, visit: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ .

An audio interview/podcast regarding 2007 WD5 is available at: http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/podcasting/jpl-mars-20071220.html

A videofile related to this story is available on NASA TV and the Web. For information and schedules, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/ntv.

[The SISU kid]

Bump 4 bookmark

[editor-surveyor]

"...just a preview of what is going to happen here sooner or later..."

You really ought to check yourself in for an indefinate period.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

I know that for earth threatening objects, the probability of impact is calculated taking a draw from a population representing the supposed distribution of the orbital elements, propagating it and seeing whether or not it impacts the earth. This process is repeated literally millions and millions of times and the probability of impact is the relative frequency of hits.

If they applied similar techniques to this asteroid, they may have seen that the draws that result in an impact (and there would be a lot of them) are clustered around a certain area of Mars, let’s call it “the impact zone”. If none of them were anywhere near Rover, then they might, not altogether unreasonably, conclude that “Rover is outside the impact zone.”

[RightWhale]

They know very closely when the asteroid will pass through the target ellipse. The Rover would be on the side away from the impact if it happens. The unknown is how far debris might scatter, if it might somehow go around the planet and hit the Rover anyway.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

If you expect the odds to diminish,didn’t you just diminish them?

No, not at all. The uncertianty in the predicted trajectory will diminish, for sure. Since, they already expect it to miss, as the uncertainty diminishes, the odds are the certainty of a miss will increase. But it may turn out, contrary to all (or at least 74 out of 75) expectations, that the probability of an impact will increase!

There is even a tiny probability that the odds of an impact will remain more or less the same.

[blam]

Cross Link:

Astronomers Monitor Asteroid To Pass Near Mars

[Polybius]

Ah, well we recently had Shoemaker-Levy crash into Jupiter, now this *may* happen to Mars, and yet, we are ASSURED that there is NO CHANCE anything like that could happen to the Earth.

"The asteroid, known as 2007 WD5, was discovered in late November and is similar in size to the Tunguska object that hit remote central Siberia in 1908, unleashing energy equivalent to a 15-megaton nuclear bomb that wiped out 60 million trees."

[Bender2]

Re: My "...just a preview of what is going to happen here sooner or later..."

Your You really ought to check yourself in for an indefinate [sic] period.

So, considering the comet that slapped Jupiter silly a few years ago, you feel that there is never, repeat never, going to be a climate changing/species killing asteroid or comet hit the earth in the future when each and every day scientists and astronomers are finding more and more evidence that this has happened over and over again here on Terra Firma--

But you feel... I need to get professional help!

Gadzooks... your total and complete ignorance is only exceeded by your outrageous gall!

If you are around when the big ball of light in the sky hits, I hope you wave at it with the rest of your ilk!

[NormsRevenge]

Woo Hoo!
More space debris .. if they connect..

urrr,, ummmm....

Thanks!

Happy Holidays!

[NormsRevenge]

THanks for that release..

50 meters wide.. that’ll leave a good dent.

[editor-surveyor]

I sufficiently confident that God’s word contains prophecies of all events of such significance that we needn’t worry about such things. Besides, we do have an atmosphere that does a great job of eating such things.

We weren’t created to live in fear.

[SunkenCiv]

They may have said that, but I know for certain that NASA’s David Morrison said that the first warning may be the fireball and dark cloud spreading out to the horizon.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks for pointing out all of that, LokiBob.

[SunkenCiv]

LOL!

[SunkenCiv]

What he said. Mars rotates on its axis, so (depending on the amount of ejecta and how far it gets flung of course) apparently the impact (should it occur) will be on the other side compared to the rover location. :’)

Thanks dayglored, El Gato, willyd, lentulusgracchus, Lonesome in Massachussets, and Rightwhale.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1942591/posts?page=21#21

Oh, and to those who think so, NO, the atmosphere doesn’t protect the surface from all impacts. Stuff large enough to wipe out, say, Chicago, would zoom right through, burning its path through, perhaps in under one second.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks for the ping, blam, and for the link to Astronomers Monitor Asteroid To Pass Near Mars. :') If it hits, it'll be a great way to start the new year!

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