Posted on 11/27/2007 12:34:05 AM PST by Jeff Fuller
The below is what I origianlly posted at Iowans for Romney) http://iowansforromney.blogspot.com/2007/11/vote-for-mike-huckabee-is-vote-for-rudy_25.html :
Yes my friends, a vote for Mike Huckabee is a vote for Rudy Giuliani. In Iowa this is absolutely the case, and in other battleground states the same argument holds true.
Why is a vote for Huckabee a vote for Rudy?
On the surface the proposition appears preposterous. Huckabee and Rudy represent the absolute polar opposites of the GOP field; Huck being a solid social conservative but fiscal liberal/moderate and conversely Rudy being a social liberal/moderate and a solid fiscal conservative. I've had conversations with supporters of both Rudy and Huck; they are farily consistent in saying that the one candidate in the race that they wouldn't/couldn't vote for is the other.
However, at least for Team Rudy, their died-in-the-wool supporters are openly rooting for Huckabee to win Iowa. Also, these two candidate themselves seem to have man-crushes on one another. Seems odd, eh?
Well, Rudy and his most knowledgeable supporters know that Mitt is the only real threat to his path to the nomination. More and more people are realizing that the race is shaping up to be a Romney-Rudy showdown. Influential conservative editor of the Weekly Standard Fred Barnes penned a piece called "The Two-Man Race" arguing that only Rudy and Romney had "credible strategies/scenarios" to winning the GOP nomination. Fred said:
If a long shot like McCain or Thompson or even Mike Huckabee wins in Iowa (January 3) or New Hampshire (January 8) or South Carolina (January 19), there won't be enough time for him to raise the funds needed to compete effectively in Florida on January 29 and the 20-plus primaries on February 5. Television ads are expensive, but necessary.
Similarly, conservative columnist John Poderotz wrote a piece called "The Two Man Republican Race" where he also says it's down to Romney and Rudy. Of Huckabee he says:
Mike Huckabee, Baptist preacher turned politician, has taken Thompson’s place as the Southern conservative to watch, but while he is conservative on social issues, on economic and political matters he seems more in the populist traditions of the Democratic party, and he has no plausible path to the nomination.Now I know there will be Huckabee supporter that believe that if he wins Iowa that he will pick up steam and win the subsequent states eventually going on to win the nomination. I respectfully disagree.
Huckabee's appeal is disproportionately weighted to firm evangelical Christians. The latest Iowa poll shows that Huckabee is blowing every other candidate away in this demographic. He's got nearly half of all evangelical Iowans polled in his camp already. He knows and speaks the language of this well-organized and motivated demographic. But is it enough? Maybe for Iowa, but not for the subsequent states.
Actually, let's take a look at the the primary calender and see if Huckabee has any "credible pathway" to the nomination:
Iowa--Jan 3rd.
Wyoming--Jan 5th (only a fraction of state's primary delegates up for grabs on this date though and these will be determined via a convention of party activists):
New Hampshire--Jan 8th:
Michigan--Jan 15th:
Nevada--Jan 19th:
South Carolina--Jan 19th (same day as Nevada . . . and thereby probably diluting the "bounce" of a win unless the same candidate wins them both):
Florida--Jan 29th (27 electoral votes) has been polled:
TSUNAMI TUESDAY--Feb 5th:
Won't all these subsequent states come to love Huckabee like Iowa? Not enough for him to come even close to winning any of them (until possibly South Carolina). It is well known that social conservatives with a strongly religious appeal tend to over-perform in Iowa and then fade into irrelevance thereafter:
One exception to my "close second" theory is Huckabee. He seems to be enjoying a well-timed surge, but unless he wins Iowa, he risks becoming John Podhoretz's "Republican Guy Who Is Coming Out of Nowhere to Place a Surprising Second in Iowa," a role JPod contends has been played in previous cycles by Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan, and Steve Forbes. In other words, he gets one more news cycle of good press and then fades quickly.
Having said all that, if each win begets another bump in the polls, it's not unthinkable to see Romney win Iowa, win Wyoming (for whatever that's worth), win New Hampshire, win Michigan, win South Carolina by a hair, and then go into Florida with a very hot hand...
A word of warning to Huckabee supporters: If on caucus night, lots of Rudy supporters (who should be diametrically opposed to a candidate like Huckabee) start to align with the Huckabee camp you will know that you are being used as a tool for a Rudy nomination. Ironically, you are probably the voting block that would be most opposed to having a pro-choice candidate, yet it would be, at least in part, your own doing.
Of course, James Dobson and/or Tony Perkins and/or Richard Land could help the average Christian conservative realize all of the above by endorsing Romney BEFORE Jan 3rd. Otherwise, they risk being complicit in creating the situation they supposedly lament: a pro-choice GOP nominee that will necessitate a 3rd party pro-life candidate. This scenario will hand Hillary the oval office on a silver platter. So then, might one also conclude: "A vote for Huckabee is a vote for Hillary?"
I, therefore, invite and implore all social conservative Iowans to consider supporting Governor Mitt Romney on Jan 3rd at your Caucus event. His is the largest tent unifying social, fiscal, and security conservatives and this coalition of strength can carry him forward beyond Iowa to win the GOP nomination and the general election. It CAN happen and we all can be a part of it.
Notice I still support Duncan - but his campaign is stagnant - he didn’t even have the money to get on the ballot in my state (deadline has passed). My hope is that the longer he can stay around, at least his message might get some play.
I considered writing him in (as at least a few other Arkansas Freepers have mentioned), but in Arkansas, write-in candidates are not counted in the Primary.
“Vote for Rudy or get used to Hillary.”
Bunch of HOOEY. Somebody call Myth Busters.
That, and it would be complimentary to Tancredo to be considered an apprentice to Hunter someday as far as securing our borders is concerned.
If I wanted people “talking” and “saying” things, I could just go for a “top tear” candidate. I am tired of the saying, I am ready for some doing.
a tariff on practically everything you buy is a tax increase and you’ll feel it. Companies will feel it as their cost of business will go up and they will move to other countries. Is that what you want?
ah so I’ve found the first known Tancredo supporter. Please take a bow. Thank you.
Yes that's absolutely true but no one is claiming otherwise. The point being made is that there is a wide gulf between the two and many interim degrees. That can't be rationally denied.
I’m not sure Rudy would carry NY or CA, but he could well supress the conservative vote in Ohio, VA and other Swing states.
-—”Only Rudy can stop her.”-—
You mean emulate her?
If Rudy’s the nominee, who CARES if he “stops” her?
Romney, like Hillary, seems to be more a vote to continue the status quo.
Talk about whistling past the graveyard.
Having failed with millions of dollars in TV ads in Iowa to hold off a comparatively penniless Huckabee, the Romney apologists must now resort to claiming that the guy they can’t beat in Iowa can’t possibly win anywhere else.
As I recall, they were saying several months ago that Huck couldn’t win in Iowa.
Given that Zogby now places Huckabee third nationally, ahead of Romney, with the biggest margin of victory over Hillary of any GOP candidate in a November 2008 general election matchup, I think I won’t put too much faith in Dr. Fuller’s premature report of Gov. Huckabee’s demise.
Actually even amongst so-called conservatives, they’re just conservative for the other guy, for them they want big social intervention government and subsidies. Not more than one in three would go alone with out government power and money.
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