Posted on 11/13/2007 11:13:48 AM PST by pissant
The American electorate is a fickle mistress. Just ask former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.).
When Thompson announced his candidacy for president just after Labor Day most national polls showed him running a close second behind former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the majority of state polls had him in the top three.
No longer. Thompson's campaign has yet to take off as expected and voters -- especially in crucial early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida.
The most recent data comes from New Hampshire where two surveys were released over the weekend. The first, conducted by theUniversity of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe, put Thompson in sixth (yes, SIXTH) place with just three percent of the vote. (Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the way with 32 percent.) In a Marist University poll Thompson again took sixth place with just five percent support. To be clear, Thompson was never a frontrunner in New Hampshire but polls conducted in the run-up to his announcement and just after he formally entered the race show him regularly polling in double digits.
Thompson's shrinking support is apparent in other early states as well. The last three polls taken in Iowa put Thompson in fourth, fifth and fourth place, respectively, and his high water mark in any of those surveys is 11 percent. In Florida, too, Thompson appears to be fading. A new poll conducted for the Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times showed Thompson in fifth place (eight percent) behind Giuliani (36 percent), Romney (19 percent), Arizona Sen. John McCain (12 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (nine percent).
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...
Agree BUMP!
You left off one little factor...
Consider the source, people!
Saw Fred at 1:30 with a small press briefing on his social security plans on C-span2 today. He was slow, bumbling and disconnected. He doesn’t seem like there is a anything wrong with him mentally or physically, he just seems disengaged or bored. It sucks because he seemed the best alternative out there, and it seems like he doesn’t quite have the fire for what’s required of him.
What might that be?
LOL, yeah, it's time to ditch the guy who's got a time-averaged support level still over 20% for the guy who's getting spanked by Ron Paul. Sure.
“There has been a fear of Fred Thompson among the media types since rumors started about his campaign.”
I believe that the Rasmussen Daily Poll is also showing support for FDT trending down.
Allright, when Fred falls to 3rd place in the nationals, you can jump on Hunter’s wagon. It won’t be too late.
The whole “if they could win” part.
Fred just received the endorsement of the nations largest and most powerful pro-life organization, and one of the biggest grassroots movements in the America today, The National Right to Life Committee. That is a 50 state organization with over 3,000 chapters from coast to coast.
Duncan Hunter's campaign is still stuck in neutral. Its out of cash and out of time. Its time to ditch Hunter and join a winner, Fred Thompson.
Paul, the one who has spammers working outside the country to lift him in the polls? The 9-11 truther Paul?
That is an excellent point. It appears that Fred's floundering on the campaign trail has led to his foundering in the polls.
Usage Note: The verbs founder and flounder are often confused. Founder comes from a Latin word meaning "bottom" (as in foundation) and originally referred to knocking enemies down; it is now also used to mean "to fail utterly, collapse." Flounder means "to move clumsily, thrash about," and hence "to proceed in confusion." If John is foundering in Chemistry 1, he had better drop the course; if he is floundering, he may yet pull through.
I’m not a FredHead, yet. There’s no doubt he’s trending down...to the MSM’s delight.
Worst case, if Rudy is elected, the MSM can spend four years talking about how the country is moving left by electing a liberal Republican who supports abortion and gay marriage.
I see that Fred is still ahead of the snake-bit Hunter. Is Hunter ahead of Paul yet?
Fred will prove ALL of you wrong and return to leading numbers... I like Hunter... but he may not even be allowed in the next debate. Fred ,at his lowest point, has 3 to 5 times the support of Hunter.
LLS
I wish Hunter would raise 4.5 million $ in one day like Ron Paul.
I can’t help him much there.
Thanks for the ping. Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.
Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.
Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts
Today, the Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 1.0 higher than yesterday, 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0
Correction: I have signed up at his website, but haven’t given Fred any money.
Meaning this: Who do you actually prefer?
This is the primary. Get on board with the Reaganite, or we will be stuck with Rudy McRomney.
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