Posted on 11/13/2007 11:13:48 AM PST by pissant
The American electorate is a fickle mistress. Just ask former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.).
When Thompson announced his candidacy for president just after Labor Day most national polls showed him running a close second behind former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the majority of state polls had him in the top three.
No longer. Thompson's campaign has yet to take off as expected and voters -- especially in crucial early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida.
The most recent data comes from New Hampshire where two surveys were released over the weekend. The first, conducted by theUniversity of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe, put Thompson in sixth (yes, SIXTH) place with just three percent of the vote. (Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the way with 32 percent.) In a Marist University poll Thompson again took sixth place with just five percent support. To be clear, Thompson was never a frontrunner in New Hampshire but polls conducted in the run-up to his announcement and just after he formally entered the race show him regularly polling in double digits.
Thompson's shrinking support is apparent in other early states as well. The last three polls taken in Iowa put Thompson in fourth, fifth and fourth place, respectively, and his high water mark in any of those surveys is 11 percent. In Florida, too, Thompson appears to be fading. A new poll conducted for the Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times showed Thompson in fifth place (eight percent) behind Giuliani (36 percent), Romney (19 percent), Arizona Sen. John McCain (12 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (nine percent).
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...
That's it right there (and I'm speaking as a true-to-life Fundamentalist), there are a lot of Mike Huckabee-type Christians want the government to be their nanny and who want to ditch the Constitution that their ancestors crafted by the guidance and wisdom of God. American Christians will rue the day they put their trust in a Constitutional amendment as the way to fix any and every thing they don't like in this country, mark my words.
see post 88.
Couldn’t agree more. He does not come across as having a strong desire to get the job. I am interested in someone who can beat Hillary. I believe the only one with a chance is Rudy. I know that is not popular here. But it’s a fact IMHO. Yes, personally Duncan is my favorite, but I don’t think that will happen. Hillary is in it to win it. We must have a strong contender.
Big deal -- they're just showing what the media is telling them. When Thompson starts his rebound, his "stock" will jump accordingly. The "futures" market is much more volatile than surveys of likely voters, because they are totally subject to perception.
However, those same "futures" markets do tell us that Hunter is not only perceived as a massive longshot, but that he's also stagnant in that position (no change since July).
I know you want to believe otherwise, but just $10 will buy you 100 shares of Hunter. Put your money where your mouth is and see if you can ever sell those shares for a profit.
Are you a FROBL?
Yes it is. It actually leads to a poll.
“The MSM used to fear Fred. I think they’re past him now, cuz he hasn’t gained any traction.
They MSM thought Thompson would be the greatest threat to Hillary; worst case for them, Rudy wins and we have a liberal Republican president.”
I don’t know that I believe that the MSM ever feared Fred. I do think that when it appeared that Fred was struggling, that they all piled on.
Futures markets are trailing indicators, and thin markets like these are especially prone to manipulation.
Or maybe when Fred falls below Hunter we can all jump to Hunter. In the mean time, I'm going to support a good conservative candidate who can win against Rudy and Hillary and who has just received the endorsement of National Right to Life. The odds are very high that Fred will also receive the NRA endorsement and either or both will translate into additional exposure and support at the polls.
Hunter has had his shot and it is now clear that his numbers will not rise above Fred's in this primary election. Duncan Hunter will not win a single state. The time has come and gone for idealism and we need to dig in and pick a conservative to support to defeat Rudy. With the exception of a few here who will hold out forever, I think most are aware of this and the river of support, including those who have remained undecided, is flowing toward Fred. But I'm sure we can count on you and handful of others here to not just tout your favorite candidate, but wholeheartedly trash Fred Thompson who is our best hope at running a conservative and trusted pro life candidate against Hillary.
Rudy's winning strategy in the primary is to gather a large percentage of the vote from the 9/11 nostalgic crowd, garner most of the vote from the liberal to moderate wing of the party, and pretend to be just conservative enough to fool the fools. As for those of us who are not fools, he thinks he can do an end run around us because we will divide the conservative vote of the base among at least 3 and hopefully 4 candidates making it ineffective. We need to be smarter than he thinks we are to win.
Kevmo: Then trust what you are hearing and seeing, in polls and on Intrade. Hunter is slowly rising, Thompson has shown a deep decline.
KevKrom: on Intrade. Hunter is slowly rising Has he closed above 0.1 on the ‘real money” market lately? Nope.
***Note that you took the end of one sentence and put it onto the next sentence. The apples-to-apples comparison in polls is that Hunter slowly rising, Thompson is falling. The apples-to-apples comparison on Intrade is that Hunter is still at 0.1% and Thompson has gone from 35% to 6% over the last few weeks, with an opening of the dropout contract which is currently at 4% or so.
When Hunter hits 5% and gains a spot on the Iowa debate, how long before the Intrade results should bounce from 0.1% to 5%? I don’t know, but it’s got to be a bargain of some sort.
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Why do you keep touting Hunter’s “Intrade” numbers when they don’t exist?
***I trust Intrade more than polls. Does that mean that currently I think Thompson has a 6% chance of winning the nomination and Hunter a 0.1% chance? Well, no. I see Hunter as undervalued and Thompson as approximately the right value. These markets value liquidity, so if someone buys Hunter at 0.1% it might be a while before it goes up, perhaps when the primaries come around. The real telling story at InTrade is the 30 point drop for Fred. If that’s due to fundamentals like how poorly he’s running his campaign, then Hunter IS doing better than him, with far less money and far less name recognition.
It’s a bigger issue than just trying to find someone to beat Hillary and/or Rudy.
http://duncanhunter2008.us/Hunter-Thompson%20flyer.pdf
stephenjohnbanker wrote: “Huckabee is a quintessential whore and liar, hiding under the guise of Boy Scout conservatism.”
That’s a bit over the top for me.
I don’t want Huckabee to be the nominee, because I don’t want Bush III. On the other hand, I don’t think he’s evil.
I like to watch those kinds of usages myself and -- as a conservative in all matters -- hate it when a linguistic corruption becomes so pervasive that the dictionaries accept it as legitimate.
I agree with you and the headline writer that what Fred is doing is mostly foundering, as in sinking, collapsing, as in an overfed horse, rather than floundering.
My dictionaries (electronic Merriam-Webster's Unabridged and electronic American Heritage, 4th edition) both seem to think that flounder is a corruption of founder, although they accept it, with a different definition. They don't put it exactly this way, but flounder to me suggests the behavior typical of a flat fish dropped onto a dock. (I suspect that it is this image that led people to corrupt founder, creating a new word so similar to the old that the distinction is often lost.)
And as to Fred, I do think he has been flapping around like a fish out of water, but mostly I think the Tennessee Stud has been sinking to his knees like an overfed horse.
Which in this case doesn’t really help him after a certain point...
Nahhhhh, it's just the LSM's attempt to create a Hillary-Giuliani wet dream faceoff..... you can choose any candidate you like as long as they're liberal.
Kevmo: For the most part we see over & over again from Thompson fans that they think Hunter is “a better man” or that kind of thing
Kevkrom: Not from me. Hunter’s a good man, and all things considered, I’d have little trouble voting for him, but Thompson is the better man and the better candidate.
***If you think Thompson is the better man, then head on over to the Hunter vs. Thompson thread and show us all why.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1925104/posts
What we see when we try to discuss issues is that Thompson fans talk about how much better he’s doing in the polls, as if that were a character trait. Now that we see evidence of poll problems with Thompson, the case for Fred is starting to get weaker.
Hunter’s a good man, and all things considered, I’d have little trouble voting for him,
***This bolsters the point I made.
Current bid price 6% to drop out...
It’s not a percentage.
Good point. That makes sense.
I imagine Fred would rather be viewed as the captain of a ship taking water than a flopping fish. :-))
Seriously, his lackluster campaign has been a disappointment. I'd wondered if he would be the white knight to rescue us from a field where every major candidate has some problems, but it looks not to be so.
snarkybob wrote: “I don’t know that I believe that the MSM ever feared Fred. I do think that when it appeared that Fred was struggling, that they all piled on.”
Agreed. I doubt they feared him, but they certainly relish reporting how his campaign is foundering (floundering?).
Long, long before Thompson declared, many of the Republican elites were bashing him. I really don’t recall many attacks (before Thompson declared) coming from the left. Most of it was in house, particularly from Rudy supporters.
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