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Talk of Worst Recession Since the 1930s
New York Sun ^ | November 12 2007 | DAN DORFMAN

Posted on 11/12/2007 9:18:11 AM PST by mustang buff

A Wall Street superstar this year who runs Balestra Capital Partners, Jim Melcher, says he's "worried about a recession. Not a normal one, but a very bad one. The worst since the 1930s. I expect we'll see clear signs of it in six months with a dramatic slowdown in the gross domestic product."

(Excerpt) Read more at nysun.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: recession; soros
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To: mustang buff; Calpernia; cbkaty; Nervous Tick; ex-Texan; RockinRight; NVDave; Neidermeyer; ...

Economy/Credit/Housing Issues Ping List

If you want on or off this list let me know.


61 posted on 11/12/2007 10:26:54 AM PST by Hydroshock ("The Constitution should be taken like mountain whiskey -- undiluted and untaxed." - Sam Ervin)
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To: JCEccles
>>Only Mitt Romney has proven himself on that score.

Hard-headed businessmen can be appointed by the POTUS.

The POTUS should be honest and have integrity. Mit Romney is a political chameleon. He’ll say whatever those who have the power to elect him want to hear.

Just ask the wog-cabin wepubwicans.

62 posted on 11/12/2007 10:29:38 AM PST by VxH (One if by Land, Two if by Sea, and Three if by Wire Transfer)
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To: lawnguy

People need to know what it’s like to walk barefoot in the snow to and from school, uphill both ways.


63 posted on 11/12/2007 10:30:00 AM PST by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: mustang buff

An Economist who looks at economic and demographic trends has been predicting a bubble boom in the stock market from 2006 up until around late 2009 then a bust in 2010 based on a slowdown in consumer spending as the Boomers age.


64 posted on 11/12/2007 10:30:08 AM PST by Aquamarine
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To: Nervous Tick

No, but the timing is awfully suspicious. Our “allies” overseas pulled the plug on treasuries at precisely the right time to lock up the commercial paper market, and expose the folly of the CDOs, SIV, resulting in a huge downward spiral of the dollar. Methinks they want “liberals” in office, and this is a dandy way of effecting that.


65 posted on 11/12/2007 10:33:37 AM PST by Freedom4US
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To: Freedom4US

The dollar declined less this year than the last 4 years so I don’t think that holds true. Since August, the dollar is only down around 5-6%. It’s down 45-50% from it’s peak 6-7 years ago. The Euro, etc is getting very bubbly IMO.


66 posted on 11/12/2007 10:40:48 AM PST by rb22982
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To: RolandBurnam
[The republicans are just as bad as the dems now, if not worse.]
 
Yep, the dialectic spread between the immaginary left and right is getting narrower and narrower. 
 
"Follow the money" wasn't just a reference to Watergate.  There's only one party in D.C., and that's the Fund Raising party.
 
[billions of dollars we dont have for new prescription entitlement,]
 
Tyranny of the apetite.

67 posted on 11/12/2007 10:42:34 AM PST by VxH (One if by Land, Two if by Sea, and Three if by Wire Transfer)
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To: Nervous Tick
[“Never attribute to conspiracy that which can adequately be explained by stupidity and greed”.]
 
At present, what we have is a potential conspiracy to cover up stupidity, greed, and criminal behavior.
 
It all depends upon whether or not the federal enforcers do, or are allowed to do, their jobs or not.
 
 

68 posted on 11/12/2007 10:49:58 AM PST by VxH (One if by Land, Two if by Sea, and Three if by Wire Transfer)
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To: glide625
He may be on to something. I personally think that the recent run on the dollar and the run up in the price of oil is evidence that things are rapidly spinning out of control.

Yes, having our domestic products more competitively priced compared to imports right in time for the Christmas shopping season will doom America (sarcasm off).

69 posted on 11/12/2007 11:02:55 AM PST by jdsteel (proud member of "Mothers And Children Against Criminal Aliens")
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To: lmailbvmbipfwedu
It’s gota go down so I can buy low, then come back up so that I can sell high.

BINGO! Long term investment, the silver lining.

70 posted on 11/12/2007 11:05:36 AM PST by Hazwaste (Now with added lemony freshness!)
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To: mustang buff

Most foiks who talk about the 30’s want to “do something,” not having a clue that “doing something” (thanks, Hoover) is exactly what turned a needed correction into a depression.

Let’s welcome the corrections, and for God’s sake, let’s not “do something” ourselves into another depression.


71 posted on 11/12/2007 11:06:07 AM PST by Larry Lucido (Hunter 2008)
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To: Mr Ramsbotham

LOL! Excellent!


72 posted on 11/12/2007 11:07:45 AM PST by Larry Lucido (Hunter 2008)
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To: top 2 toe red

You might want to at least think about reading the piece before you offer criticisms that make it clear that you haven’t.


73 posted on 11/12/2007 11:12:29 AM PST by tcostell (MOLON LABE)
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To: Larry Lucido

Could not do it better myself.

Part of the reason that the 30s depression was so bad, in addition to the inelastic gold standard (ahem, Rep. Paul), was the fact that they tried to get the government involved and try to prop the economy back up to its overinflated levels. It didn’t work. Only after World War II started up did we get back to that.

We need corrections. Like it or not, we need recessions as much as we need booms. We need times of saving as much as we need times of spending.


74 posted on 11/12/2007 11:18:32 AM PST by jmyrlefuller (The Associated Press: The most dangerous news organization in America.[TM])
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To: JCEccles

He lost jobs, businesses and people while he was governor.


75 posted on 11/12/2007 11:22:07 AM PST by the gillman@blacklagoon.com (I am a proud anti-invasion racist!)
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To: Pawtucket Patriot

Just get here?

From Pawtucket. RI?

Welcome.


76 posted on 11/12/2007 11:24:17 AM PST by the gillman@blacklagoon.com (I am a proud anti-invasion racist!)
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To: JCEccles

MAss,lost jobs, business adnpeople while he was the failure of a governor he was.


77 posted on 11/12/2007 11:26:04 AM PST by Hydroshock ("The Constitution should be taken like mountain whiskey -- undiluted and untaxed." - Sam Ervin)
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To: Brilliant

You should check your information first. This country economy has beeen financed for the past 5 years on borrowed money. Both the public and the government can’t or won’t live within there means. I think the national debt is 9 trillion dollars and the interest paid is in the billions. Th consumer’s savings rate is in the negative range. The public borrows money against their home’s equity which is inflated due to the housing bubble. Wages have been flat for years. We had more buying power in the year 2000 than we do today. The spending has to taper off and when interest rates rise there will be a lot of bankrupcies and layoffs. I can go on and on


78 posted on 11/12/2007 11:33:51 AM PST by mustang buff
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To: mustang buff

Even if you accept everything you say as true, that still doesn’t add up to worst recession since the 1930s. Not even worst recession since 2000.


79 posted on 11/12/2007 12:06:08 PM PST by Brilliant
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To: Fairview
“I wish people like this would shut up. In the event of a recession they will be fine, resting on their piles of money, but the rest of us will suffer (and suffer and suffer and suffer).”

I thought that you were ranting at first, but you are right. Okay, this fellow thinks that there will be a major recession. Okay, fine, where are his solutions?

Did you notice that the article neatly points out where Melcher has put his money? How many are going to read that, redirect their investments into those things, thereby driving the price up for Melcher?

I don’t mind anyone makin’ money. But I agree with you and have a strong dislike for those selling plywood at $50 a sheet during a tropical depression that may turn into a hurricane. That is what this Melcher is doing.

80 posted on 11/12/2007 12:10:19 PM PST by samm1148 (Pennsylvania-They haven't taxed air--yet)
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