Nonsense. For starters, most grassroots conservatives are registered Republicans. By the time Fred had made noise about running, April-May time frame, liberal and moderate party loyalists had already chosen to get behind Giuliani. Some picked Romney. The hardcore McCainiacs stood by their man.
Grassroots conservatives were split and waiting for a real credentialed conservative to step forward. So far, Fred`s been that conservative. As the second tier candidates drop out, we'll see which candidate their support migrates too.
IMO, its all gonna boil down to Rooty or Fred. We know what happens if Rooty wins. The GOP is through. My monies on Fred.