"Always vote on principle, though you may vote alone, but you may cherish the sweet reflection that your vote is never lost."
Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
If you mean me, I am definitely not pro-abort.
They have been working for a 3rd and 4th term since the day he left.
They are extremely angry about his Impeachment, and want payback.
And Hill and Bill KNOW modern day Americans, and KNOW most Americans WANT universal healthcare, and other goodies.
They also have their “WAR ROOM”, ie, the entire media, academia and Hollywood.
So it really matters not who we nominate at all.
Our mission at FR should be to destroy the MSM, completely discredit all of them, reporter by reporter.
FR should be funding ads against the MSM right now.
third party like Bloomberg?
Nobody is “threatening” anything. We are STATING an iron clad, irrefutable FACT!
CONSERVATIVES DO NOT VOTE FOR LIBERALS, BE THEY SOCIAL OR FISCAL!
Personally, I am backing the candidate who has the best chance to beat the democrats. Right now that is Fred Thompson. However, whoever gets the GOP nomination will get my vote, because the alternative is irrevelentcy. Your views won't matter! The democrats will simply steamroll over what we believe and when they are done, we will live in socialist europe.
So all you ideologues out there better be sure; the world with Giuliani as President would be a conservative utopia compared to the alternative...
Mike
If I thought your analysis was correct, I would be doing that right now!
“A socialist is a socialist regardless of whether there is an R or D after the name! “
Hillary is a definite socialist (or worse). I don’t think Rudy would be any more of a socialist than Bush (No Child Left Behind, Medicare Drug Bill, lack of border enforcement, etc). But I would much rather have a big government Republican that will keep us safe than a bigger-government liberal who will get us killed.
The federal government has grown (spending, regulations, etc) under every President regardless of party. I would welcome a real third party alternative that has a chance, but unfortunately the reality is two parties and a choice of one or the other.
Back then there were only 3 horses in the race, and I didn't know the extent of his left-wing views until he imploded on CNN with the support for taxpayer funding of abortions.
I ain't scared of a Hillary presidency, unlike you guys who whine for your Mommas whenever she's mentioned.
I seriously doubt christian right to lifers can get a 4th party candidate por-life single issue candidate on the ballot in 50 states.
I say 4th party because its far more likely you see someone like Bloomberg buy their way in to 3rd party ticket as an independent sucking up the oxygen.
Dr. Paul promised his wife of 50 years that he would not run as a 3rd party or independent candidate, and I'll take his word over the rest of the so-called Republicans who spin like Maytag washers.
There is a question as to whether the US could or SHOULD survive with a unanimously pro-abortion political system.
I fear for my country when I reflect that God is just--Thomas Jefferson
"Always vote on principle, though you may vote alone, but you may cherish the sweet reflection that your vote is never lost."
Ain’t nuttin principled about giving the country to hillary.
Cool. I was looking for the meeting place for all of those folks who wanted to cut off their nose to spite their face.
But if your vote "on principle" accomplishes not only nothing, but has brought about a worse outcome, then you and your efforts are a failure.
My vote on principle means that I refuse the accept the quasi-socialist status quo that Rudy-toots is pushing, and the subsequent demise of the GOP.
You can vote for this fascist authoritarian freakazoid who invokes 9/11 like John Kerry invokes Vietnam, but my vote and support will go elsewhere.
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