Hurricane Felix (Update: Category 5 Hurricane )

NWS/NHC ^ | September 1, 2007 | NWS/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Cumana to Pedernales including the island of Margarita.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Cayman One Radio Nice music mix, and hourly news

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[nwctwx]

0z NAM coming in with a strong storm off the SE coast again by this weekend, it’s not the best model for tropics or this range but still worth noting as we enter tonights model runs..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_084l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_084l.gif

That’s a recipe for the 3rd major hurricane for the yr.

[SouthTexas]

Sure is a big ol' blob out there!

[gleeaikin]

I just found out that my councilman is in El Salvador, does anyone have word on what they expect there, especially in San Salvador? Also the status of outgoing aircraft.

[nwctwx]

key to future landfall is probably how far east it ends up after this intial development phase. too far east and it's going to have a tough time drifting west under the ridging to the north to make it to the coast before being picked up by what should be a decent fall-like push of air for the northeast coming with a trough next week.

[nwctwx]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=&showtopic=141156&view=findpost&p=2099494

00z cmc shows a strong storm making landfall on the sc/nc border

[CindyDawg]

Is Felix partially in the Pacific now?

[PeteB570]

Well, it appears the tropical low that was Hurricane Felix is between the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific reports at the NHC - lost in limbo.

Todays newspaper was running a story about the “Historic Year” we are having - two Hurricanes hit land on the same day.

[NautiNurse]

The NHC published their last Felix public advisory at 5AM, as it decreased to a tropical depression.

[SouthTexas]

Do all the computer models start over when it's downgraded to a TS? Here

[RDTF]

this is in German but the video has some good footage of the damage

http://www.spiegel.de/videoplayer/0,6298,21388,00.html

[NautiNurse]

I believe they just keep plugging in the latest coordinates, intensity, and other ingredients.

[brothers4thID]

From Jeff Masters this morning:

The computer models are all unanimous in developing 99L into a tropical storm. The preferred tracks are into North Carolina or South Carolina by Sunday or Monday. The HWRF, SHIPS, and GFDL intensity models are calling for a weak tropical storm, strong tropical storm, and Category 2 hurricane, respectively, when 99L makes landfall Monday in the Carolinas. Residents of the east coast of the U.S., and the Carolinas in particular, should carefully watch the development of 99L.

[NautiNurse]

Recon is scheduled to scout the system this afternoon.

[PeteB570]

No - No - No

99L - You stay away from the Carolinas.

Guys, you think that will work?

[brothers4thID]

actually most in the carolinas would welcome a mild tropical system. They are bone dry

[PeteB570]

“They are bone dry.”

That should read “We are bone dry.” I’m in Fayetteville but the family has a beach house behind Holden Beach.

Yes - we could sure use some rain, my grass is pale brownish green and crunchy. But I’d rather get it as a nice slow moving front or low pressure system nowhere near Hurricane force.

[RDTF]

This video was taken on the way into Felix at 2am at Cat 5!

http://www.airshowbuzz.com/videos/view.php?v=9f061057

Air Force Hurricane Hunters fly into the eye of Hurricane Felix. Video starts about 20 miles outside of the eye. Red light is gear handle, which comes on when throttles are in idle.

[CindyDawg]

I don’t exactly know what I was watching but the lighting flashes were awesome.

[Squantos]

LOL....Bet TSgt Burden is the loadmaster........:o)

[yorkie]

All I can say is one word, “WOW!”

Thank you for including me in the ‘ping’!