Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Cumana to Pedernales including the island of Margarita.
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| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Let’s just hope Felix runs out of time before he runs out of food again.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
-—— Current Analysis -——
Date : 04 SEP 2007 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 14:20:22 N Lon : 80:18:54 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 948.4mb/117.4kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 6.3 6.3
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -13.7C Cloud Region Temp : -69.0C
Thanks for your clarification.
We should have the next Hunters in momentarily.
Let’s just hope and PRAY water temps, water depth, and dry air being sucked into Felix will bring this cane down in strength...keeping it ragged...
Just posted by a pro MET over at Storm2K:
New 3hr motion based on 0145Z imagery. It moved 51nm toward 267.1 deg. Dropped down to 14.4N latitude from 14.5. That’s 17 kts. forward speed. That makes it only 8 hours until landfall, or about 5am CDT. Probably near 14.6N.
That’s moving quick. Pretty much matches every analysis I did using the Vortex Data Messages.
I must say I’m surprised it has stayed so far south. That’s good news for us but bad news for Nicaragua and Honduras. I don’t think those two countries are as prepared for a major hurricane the way other countries are that are more frequently hit. Hurricanes making landfall that far south are quite rare.
or 6
AF309 is now in the air out of Puerto Rico.
Starting tonight at 8:00PM ET Sept 3rd the hurricane warning call in show and during landfall on Tuesday and Wednesday different media coverage and images as Felix moves inland.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/live1.htm
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2007
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Felix now less than 12 hours from landfall... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border...and for Honduras from Limon eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Honduras west of Limon...for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala...and for the entire coast of Belize. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Isla de Providencia. At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Puerto Cabezas to prinzapolka. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. At 11 PM EDT...the government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from west of Limon to the Honduras/Guatemala border...including islas de la Bahia. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located near latitude 14.4 north...longitude 81.1 west or about 145 miles... 235 km...east-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border. Felix is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr. A westward track with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours. The center of Felix is expected to make landfall near or just south of the border between Nicaragua and Honduras tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher gusts. Felix is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is expected in the final hours prior to landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb...28.08 inches. Storm surge flooding in excess of 18 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is possible to the north of where the center makes landfall. Felix is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain across northern Nicaragua and much of Honduras...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains will likely produce life- threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...14.4 N...81.1 W. Movement toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure...951 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500 am EDT. $$ Forecaster Franklin
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2007
There have been no additional aircraft data since 21z...but there have been some structural changes over the past several hours apparent in microwave and conventional imagery. An 18z microwave pass showed that an outer eyewall had formed...and over the past several hours the inner eyewall has decayed in infrared images and the outer feature is now more prominent. Raw objective Dvorak numbers are higher than six hours ago...up to t6.7...but i'm guessing that the inner core pressure gradient has not yet recovered from the eyewall replacement...and it may take a few more hours for these structural changes to be reflected in the wind field. The advisory intensity is being held at 115 kt...with some re-strengthening expected prior to landfall in another 6-9 hours. Another reconnaissance aircraft will be in the hurricane around 05z. The initial motion estimate is 270/17...as Felix continues to be steered by deep-layer high pressure to the north of the cyclone. There is a little less ridging ahead of Felix and so some decrease in forward speed is likely over the next 24 hours...but the ridging should be sufficient to keep Felix basically on track. Most of the model guidance keeps Felix out of the Bay of Campeche...with only the 12z UKMET and 18z NOGAPS taking Felix back over water. The 18z UKMET...which is available only out to 48 hours...is also a little south of its earlier run. The official forecast has been shifted a little to the south of the previous advisory and now keeps Felix entirely over land. As a result of the southward adjustment in the track forecast...the intensity forecast is adjusted sharply downward after 12 hours...and if the track forecast verifies the small circulation of Felix is likely to dissipate much earlier than shown below. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 04/0300z 14.4n 81.1w 115 kt 12hr VT 04/1200z 14.6n 83.5w 125 kt...inland 24hr VT 05/0000z 15.1n 85.9w 65 kt...inland 36hr VT 05/1200z 15.7n 88.1w 40 kt...inland 48hr VT 06/0000z 16.4n 90.2w 30 kt...inland 72hr VT 07/0000z 18.0n 94.0w 25 kt...inland 96hr VT 08/0000z 19.5n 97.5w 20 kt...inland 120hr VT 09/0000z...dissipated $$ forecaster Franklin
“Felix is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain across northern Nicaragua and much of Honduras...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains will likely produce life- threatening flash floods and mud slides.”
those amounts are up I think. This will be terrible
This storm is bad news for Nicaragua and Honduras. Collectively they’ve lost tens of thousands of people in flash floods caused by hurricanes. Heck, Nicaragua and Honduras lost over 8,000 in just a Cat 2 hurricane that never made landfall in either country (Hurricane Fifi of 1974). Unlike Dean, Felix is going to hit a highly populated area. I hope Nicaragua and Honduras are well prepared for a high power Cat 4 that very well may be strengthening on landfall.
Some of the models show it traveling the coast.
Yep. The 5 pm said 5-8 inches with isolated pockets up to 12 inches.
With that, I’m off to bed. Now that the extended weekend is done, I’m almost back to normal (figures).
Snidely Whiplash, from Dudley Do-right.
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