China, Japan race for the moon

AP via Yahoo! ^ | 08/24/07 | HIROKO TABUCHI

[Abathar]

TOKYO - Japan claims its project is the biggest since Apollo. China says it is readying its probes to study the lunar surface to plan a landing.

With Asia's biggest powers set to launch their first unmanned lunar missions — possibly as early as next month — the countdown has begun in the hottest space race since the United States beat the Soviet Union to the moon nearly four decades ago.

Japan's space agency said last week that its SELENE lunar satellite is on track for a Sept. 13 launch, following years of delay as engineers struggled to fix mechanical problems.

China, meanwhile, is rumored to be planning a September blastoff for its Chang'e 1 probe, but is coy as to the date.

The Chinese satellite and its Changzheng 3 rocket have passed all tests, and construction of the launch pad is finished, according to the National Space Administration's Web site. Last month, China's minister of defense technology told CCTV that all was ready for a launch "by the end of the year."

Officials have tried to play down the importance of beating each other off the pad, but their regional rivalry is never far below the surface.

"I don't want to make this an issue of win or lose. But I believe whoever launches first, Japan's mission is technologically superior," said Yasunori Motogawa, an executive at JAXA, Japan's space agency. "We'll see which mission leads to the scientific breakthroughs."

China's military-run space program has taken a great leap forward in recent years, and the country sent shock waves through the region in 2003, when it became the first Asian country to put its own astronauts into space.

China also blasted an old satellite into oblivion with a land-based anti-satellite missile, the first such test ever conducted by any nation, including the United States and Russia.

But Japan is right behind China.

After a decade of work, Tokyo in February completed a network of four spy satellites that can monitor any spot on the globe, every day — a program spurred by the 1998 North Korean test of a Taepodong ballistic missile, which flew over Japan's main island and into the Pacific.

One of the spy satellites has since failed, however, throwing the network's effectiveness into doubt. Tokyo spends about $500 million a year on the program.

Regional powers India, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan all have satellites in orbit. North Korea says it sent one up with its 1998 ballistic missile launch and to have used it to broadcast hymns about its leader, Kim Jong Il, although the claim has never been substantiated.

The planned lunar missions by China and Japan are among the most ambitious space programs yet.

Japanese space officials have said their $276 million SELENE project is the largest lunar mission since the Apollo program in terms of overall scope and ambition, outpacing the former Soviet Union's Luna program and NASA's Clementine and Lunar Prospector projects.

SELENE involves placing a main satellite in orbit around the moon and deploying two smaller satellites in polar orbits to study the moon's origin and evolution. Japan launched a lunar probe in 1990, but that was a flyby mission, unlike SELENE, which is intended to orbit the moon.

China's Chang'e 1 orbiter will use stereo cameras and X-ray spectrometers to map three-dimensional images of the lunar surface and study its dust. The country has already spent $185 million on it, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

Beijing hopes to retrieve samples from the moon in later missions, according to the project's Web page, and Xinhua has reported that a manned probe could come within 15 years. Japan is also considering a manned mission by 2025.

"It's the race for the South Pole all over again," said Hideo Nagasu, former research head of JAXA's predecessor organization, the National Aerospace Laboratory.

"In the interest of furthering Asia's space technology, cooperating would be the best option. But I don't think either side wants to do that just yet."

[RightWhale]

No money is to be made from the moon except possibly in a peripheral activity such as tourism, which might be worth $1 billion a year or $1 billion total for all time. The profitable activity is asteroid mining.

[IrishCatholic]

Ok then. Imagine magnetic rail launching powered by solar power flinging spaceships from the moon’s surface where they were built out to the asteroids. Imagine materials coming back to be manufactured on the ground of the moon without regard to its “environmental impact”.
Imagine the cost of expansion of human activities greatly reduced as all that is required is more mining. Our horizons would be expanded in unlooked for ways that comes from being there.
No, it is not the type of race to lose. We must go back to the moon first, build up there, and then move on to the rest of the solar system.
Manifest destiny should not be written in Chinese or Japanese characters.

[plsvn]

No money is to be made from the moon except possibly in a peripheral activity such as tourism, which might be worth $1 billion a year or $1 billion total for all time. The profitable activity is asteroid mining.

So we meet again.... I watched a program on the Discovery Channel or some such recently where they were discussing the reasons why several countries are racing back to the moon. According to the program, lunar soil is rich in Hydrogen-3 (from eons of solar particle bombardment) which they say may lead to easier nuclear fusion. Don't know how true this is or whether it's hype. Maybe someone here knows.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

No money is to be made from the moon except possibly in a peripheral activity such as tourism, which might be worth $1 billion a year or $1 billion total for all time.

I've been reading and hearing different. And there are also going to be huge military and scientific benefits to a permanent base on the moon.

[RightWhale]

Forget it. The Treaty is there to put a stop to all that and it is working quite well.

[RightWhale]

It’s helium 3.

[RightWhale]

I have also read all that, and written some, too.

[plsvn]

It’s helium 3.

Yes, you're right.

[GeorgeKant]

The Japanese rocket will be comfortable, fuel efficient, completely reliable, and will flawlessly perform the mission. The Chinese rocket will be made out of metal 1/1000th of an inch too thin to increase a manufacturers profits and will land on children when it crashes.

You must not be too familiar with Japan's notoriously unreliable space program. Reality isn't quite like Anime.

[Greg F]

You must not be too familiar with Japan’s notoriously unreliable space program.
_______________________________

I’m basing my judgment on my Toyota which has been the most reliable car I’ve ever owned.

[GeorgeKant]

The Chinese want to push Japan aside , and have so far helped Liberal socialists like Shinzo Abe get elected to prevent the military expansion of the Japanese

Are you kidding me? Do you know what the alternative to Shinzo Abe is? The left-wing Japanese Democratic Party, which is FAR MORE liberal than Abe.

Koizumi was a fluke in Japanese politics, there are strong business interests in Japan that prefer Japan to cuddle with China. This is similar to the United States, you can elect a Democrat or Republican president, but either one will still be pro-China.

[GeorgeKant]

my Toyota which has been the most reliable car I’ve ever owned.

True that. But building a rocket requires some way different physics than building a car. The Chinese rockets were pretty unreliable up to the mid-1990s, but have mysteriously become 100% reliable since then (*hint: Bill). The Japanese just last year lost a satellite (Midori-2) shortly after launch. There was also another failure involving Japan's H-2A rocket boosters.

[Greg F]

That’s a joke if we’ve transferred (through espionage or otherwise) missile technology to China that we haven’t given to Japan.

[Candor7]

This is similar to the United States, you can elect a Democrat or Republican president, but either one will still be pro-China.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I was just in Japan in July for 2 weeks. The Japanese people do NOT like the Chinese, do not like heir products in their shops, and do not like Chinese ex pats in Japan. The Japanese people do not trust their own government or their elected officials. They do not want Japan in another war, and so are studiously anti-military.

But that can change in 48 hours, depending on what happens with either North Korea or China, one incident is all it would take for a massive switch of the public to being very pro military.

In Japan, politicians tell the people what they think the people want to hear.

And what the people wnat to hear could change in a heart beat.Its a waiting game at this point.

If there were no Yakuza in Japan, the Chinese would be telling the Japanese how to vote. The Japanese people are VERY uncomfortable about this.

[GeorgeKant]

was just in Japan in July for 2 weeks. The Japanese people do NOT like the Chinese, do not like heir products in their shops, and do not like Chinese ex pats in Japan.

You are confusing pro-China business interests in Japan with the "Japanese people." Who gives a rats arse whether the Japanese people currently like the Chinese or not? Whoopeedee doo. Like you said, the tide of opinion in Japan can change at anytime. After spending a year in Hamamatsu (I was doing an orthopedic surgery exchange there), the first realization of Japan I got was that the Japanese public opinion epitomized fickleness and was chronically afflicted with amnesia. Japan may have all the institutions of a democracy, but it doesn't function like one. The public opinion in Japan is manipulated like a chess piece (far more so than in the US... people just don't really question what they hear in Japan).

The business interests in both Japan AND China will eventually see an end to the mutual bashing between Japan and China. It's already starting to happen. Expect more kumbaya in the years to come, regardless of the party in Japan. Historically, China and Japan were enemies in only 3 centuries out of the last 21. The recent animosity is mostly driven by short-term political gain in both countries.

[Candor7]

The recent animosity is mostly driven by short-term political gain in both countries.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Of course I hope you are right, but where I was I detected a very powerful opinion in people that was indicative of a desire to maintain Japanese culture as it is , without dictates from China.

People in Japam are fickle about their government for a reason, its not just "the way it is."

The Japanese populus , three generations after WWII still remember how their governmant under "Yamato Damashi" perpetrated untold suffering on a kind and gentle people.

As far as China goes, every pronouncement in the news about Yasukuni is taken as a reminder that the Japanese people cannot respect the deaths of those soldiers who were forced into uniform the abuse of traditional "giri" or duty to ones family, town, prefecture and nation. The Chinese wnat that relationship to remain dirty or sullied to disempower the Japanese military. To ordinary Japanese,, it is all they have left after being figuratively raped by Yamato Damishi. And they won't stand for it.

In this I believe the Chinese have overplayed their hand, and need to back off and let Japan take her place as a great nation , without continually haranging Japan internationally.

If Japan decided to return to the Chinese in like kind, what they have handed out to Japan, then China would suffer accordingly for the 2 million missing Tibetans they slaughtered. And the Chinese have many other skeletons in their closet

THe CHinese and Japanese do have business interests but they will not be mutually pursued at all costs, and the Chinese have propelled things to a point where inside Japan, the Chinese are not welcome, as the Iranians are not either.

Whether this becomes reflected in national Japanese policy or not, only time will tell. Reactionary elements in Japan certainly disdain the Chinese and conduct campaigns on it.

[Fitzcarraldo]

[Mike Powell]

If launching a rocket to space is dangerous. Then launching a rocket plus a man (or robot if insist on safety) is equally lethal if the reliability and maintainance of the space vehicle is complex and poor. And in this situation, it’s the reliability and simplicity itself can make the difference.

I had done some research and review on Chinese rocket systems base on some internet sources. And surprise me their space vehicles/rockets are good in reliability considered their space programs which started not as long as NASA. Japanese space vehicles is also good as well and their rockets do have quality that even NASA can be proud of, however it’s the technical complexity of their machine that worries me (U.S. technology? Perhaps).

Let’s put myself in those two countries leaders’ shoes. For me I’ll prefer simple, reliable and if can, proven systems that will deliver the astronaut or robots onto the moon. Because the human technology has yet to reach Star Wars or Star Trek like advancement.