There is no answer. It’s just a discussion. Join in, with your thoughts. I’m very cautious and if I had any concerns I would probably do it. It can’t hurt his ratings because many of us, his base, are already upset with him about other stuff anyway:’)
By the same amazing modeling technology that allows perfect prediction of what the stock market will be doing in the near future. /sarcasm
How can people be so certain that a hurricane, especially one of this magnitude, will behave so predictablly?
A hurricane will behave depending upon how Coriolis forces, steering pressure zones, shear winds, and their fuel sources act. The Coriolis forces are easy to quantize and you can make some good guesses with the fuel source (i.e. the water temperature distribution). The high or low pressure zones and shear winds around the hurricane are difficult to estimate but sometimes they steady out like they have recently. You quantize these factors using supercomputers using algorithms and assumptions that various climate researchers think are accurate. Each of these algorithms is developed independently from the others and each has a certain history in how accurate it has been able to predict the paths of hurricanes. But when the computer models align, the uncertainty drops dramatically.
I am an extreme novice on these threads and have no opinion that anyone should be much concerned about. But that flat straight line in Post #721 bothers me.
How can people be so certain that a hurricane, especially one of this magnitude, will behave so predictablly?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Good Question~~~
That’s a general track,,,the storm could hit north or south of that line,,,it has followed a WNW general direction
since there ain’t much to “steer” it,(winds aloft/etc.)
