Return of the Bear (Oliver North)

Townhall.com ^ | August 17, 2007 | Oliver North

[jazusamo]

Friday, August 17, 2007

WASHINGTON -- The great horned owl is a magnificent raptor with feathers so soft its prey can't even hear it coming until it's too late. But even this superb hunter has a major challenge to overcome: It cannot move its eyes. To scan forest or field for danger -- or its next meal -- the owl, its eyes fixed straight ahead, must rotate its head. Today, the U.S. national security apparatus is much like an owl with a stiff neck.

For more than three years now, our White House, State Department and Pentagon have been fixated on America's adversaries in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. Our preoccupation has been on Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. Unfortunately, we seem to have missed what's happening in Russia. Not to carry the wildlife metaphor too far, but "the Bear" is back.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow would build a new air defense radar system in St. Petersburg, to be "the first step in a large-scale program," and that it will be "carried out before 2015." This follows Putin's threat to re-target Russian nuclear weapons on Europe if Washington goes ahead with plans to deploy missile defense radars in the Czech Republic and anti-missile interceptors in Poland. As usual, the Blame America First crowd claims that the U.S. ICBM shield is precipitating a "crisis." Perhaps, but the Euro-critics and our own foreign policy wonks -- like owls that can't turn their heads -- may be missing what's really happening in Putin's world.

In July, the Russian president told newly promoted military and security officers at the Kremlin, "One of our absolute priorities is an all-round strengthening of the armed forces." Putin added, "Both the situation in the world and internal political interests demand that Russia's foreign intelligence service constantly increases its resources, above all in the field of information and analytical support for the country's leadership." And last week, Adm. Vladimir Masorin, Russia's navy chief, declared intentions to "restore a permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea," a capability Moscow has not had since the Cold War.

But Moscow's new assertiveness isn't just talk. Sales of Russian military hardware to Iran, Syria, Venezuela and North Korea are up more than 25 percent in the past two years. A few weeks ago, Russian explorers planted a flag on the seabed at the north pole, "claiming" the region for Moscow -- despite angry protests from the U.S., Canada, Denmark and Norway. Last week, Pentagon officials acknowledged Moscow's boast that two Russian Tu-95 long-range turboprop bombers had "buzzed" U.S. military bases on Guam. And this week, Russia and China began a massive joint military exercise -- only the second ever, and it's the first to be held on Russian soil.

What's going on here? What's "the Bear" doing behind "the Owl's" back? Is Vladimir Putin bent on starting a new Cold War?

The fact is, we don't know. Our human intelligence resources are so thin that "we have no idea what's happening inside the Kremlin," according to one retired senior intelligence officer. But what we do know for certain should be alarming enough to make us pay attention.

First, we know that Russia is awash in gas and petrodollars. Thanks to the worldwide spike in oil and natural gas prices, Moscow is raking in euros and fueling military and intelligence expenditures that were previously financially impossible.

Second, we know that in the long term, Russia is in very serious trouble because it is simply running out of Russians. To sustain economic growth, a nation needs a growing population. Increasing the number of people requires either babies to be born in sufficient numbers or immigration -- or both. Moscow's problem is that it has neither. Even neutral population growth requires 2.1 live births per couple. Russia's birthrate is less than 1.6 -- and nobody immigrates to Russia.

According to the CIA, Russia also has one of the lowest average life spans on the planet: 66.6 years. Absent a dramatic increase in birthrate, longevity and/or massive immigration, the population of 141.3 million Russians will continue to decline at a rate of about 700,000 per year. This population implosion means that in little more than a decade there will simply be too few Russians to control one-sixth of the world's land mass and perhaps a third of the world's petroleum and natural gas reserves. To further complicate the situation, to the south, energy-starved China -- population 1.4 billion -- already has 70 million more men than women and a military more than double the size of Russia's.

We don't seem to know what Vladimir Putin has decided to do about his country's precarious future, but it would be naive for us to ignore the enormous potential for miscalculation. Better intelligence is a must. Even owls move their heads to look around. Maybe that's why they are said to be wise.

Oliver North is the founder and honorary chairman of Freedom Alliance and author of The Assassins .

[DieHard the Hunter]

Thanks for that — it sounds sufficiently profound-yet-succinct to be a Russian quote.

[JohnA]

On the birth rate I found this:

...important changes have contributed to the resolution of the demographic problem. It appears that the customary wails about "ultimate extinction at the rate of a million people a year" soon will have to end. The mortality rate between January and May 2007 was 6 per cent lower than it had been during those same months in 2006, and the birth rate rose: 625,000 babies were born - 34,000 more than during the first five months of 2006. The population is not growing yet, but the dynamics are unmistakable.

It is impossible to single out the role any one individual plays in such complex social processes in principle, of course, but there is no question that state policy has played a definite role and that this has not simply happened "of its own accord." Furthermore, this role clearly has been a positive one.

BBC Monitoring

Russian analyst on strategic roles of two main presidential contenders

Text of report by Russian newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta on 17 July

[Article by Leonid Radzikhovskiy, political analyst: "Project Number One"]

[JohnA]

And Ayn Rand was Russian .... and according to the book The Millionaire Next Door, Russians have the highest millionaires-per-capita of all US immigrants - 2nd gen - followed by the Scots and the Hungarians. If you wish to verify this information, NYT has the first chapter free online at the book review section.

[DieHard the Hunter]

> If you wish to verify this information, NYT has the first chapter free online at the book review section.

I can readily believe it. An interesting snippet of information — thanks for that!

[ARE SOLE]

I know Russia has a lot of uninvited Chinese for example. I just quoted from the article. I do not think there is much in the way of permanent legal immigration. I would however bow to your first hand knowledge.

Regards

[athelass]

...important changes have contributed to the resolution of the demographic problem. It appears that the customary wails about "ultimate extinction at the rate of a million people a year" soon will have to end. ...The population is not growing yet, but the dynamics are unmistakable.

They are past the point of no return. The BBC is blowing smoke on this issue. They haven't even faced their own population decline. The article should have asked how many of these babies were born to Muslim families. The abortion rate there is %70! They have the fastest growing rate of HIV in the world, faster than Africa. The mortality rate can only increase as the population ages. One small bump does not a recovery make. Here's what Mark Steyn says about Russia/China:

So the world's largest country is dying and the question is how violent it's death throes will be...A potentially African-level AIDS crisis and an Islamist separatist movement sitting atop the biggest pile of nukes on the planet...poor old Russia is awash in resources but fatally short of Russians...Russian east there are 16 million people and falling. In China, there are 1.5 billion...China is resource poor; the Russian east contains %80 of that country's resources...It will be Russia's fate to have large chunks of its turf annexed by the Islamic world, and mush of what's left fall to the Chinese.

He also says that there's no need to worry about China becoming a super power. Their one child policy will collapse their society before they have time for their economic promise to pay off. Talk radio was making fun of the Russian "pro-creation day" this week, but I think it shows their desperation. Desperate people do desperate things. Like sell weapons to Iran and land to China. Ollie is on the money to bring this up.

[JohnA]

Mark Steyn doesn’t qualify for a single article published in Johnson’s Russia List. That says a a lot about Mark Steyn. I’ve read his stuff. He’s a cheap shot artist. You can read him if you want. People who invest in Russia (the US is #7 and looking like growing) give Mark-boy the big pass.

[Dead Dog]

Shame Russian won’t join us in a joint defence agreement against China and Islamists.

[tarheelswamprat]

Mark Steyn doesn’t qualify for a single article published in Johnson’s Russia List. That says a a lot about Mark Steyn. I’ve read his stuff. He’s a cheap shot artist. You can read him if you want. People who invest in Russia (the US is #7 and looking like growing) give Mark-boy the big pass.

You've certainly established your credibility beyond a doubt...

[JohnA]

David Johnson surely has. IMO, he shows exceptionally good taste and editorial savvy by keeping Steyn away form his esteemed publication.