Posted on 08/16/2007 6:15:38 PM PDT by bnelson44
Rudy Giuliani got good news earlier this week from a CBS poll that most people have learned to mistrust -- for good reason -- but Rasmussen may provide some corroboration today. According to the normally reliable pollster, Rudy has his first significant lead in head-to-head polling against Hillary Clinton, and the crosstabs show some surprising depth (via Instapundit):
After being virtually tied with Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton for several months, Republican contender Rudy Giuliani now leads Clinton up 47% to 40% in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
In the match-up of the frontrunners, this result marks a significant shift. For the last three months the two frontrunners have never been further apart than three percentage points. Last month, Giuliani and Clinton were separated by just a single point.
Senator Clinton fares modestly better against former Senator Fred Thompson. Clinton now has a three point edge over him, 46% to 43%. All four previous Clinton-Thomas have also been toss-ups.
It's significant that neither top 50% in the poll. Eight percent insist on voting for another candidate, even when the question gets posed as a two-choice affair. Five percent are unsure. We'll come back to them in a moment.
Rudy has some surprising strength in the demographics, especially women. While pundits believe that Hillary would motivate women to flock to her banner, Giuliani actually edges Hillary 44%-42% in this poll -- within the margin of error, to be sure, but much closer than most would imagine. Giuliani has a majority of those between 30-39 years of age (54-36) while Hillary has a slimmer majority in the 40-49 range (50-44). Despite Democratic claims on the youth vote, Hillary only gets a single percentage point lead on Rudy on the 18-29 demo (38-37), and Giuliani has significant leads among those 50 and older.
Otherwise, the only other surprise among the demographics are black voters. Hillary has a lead on Giuliani there, but Rasmussen shows the split 48-41 Hillary. I'd guess this to be a typo. The "Others" category is split 55-11 for Hillary, and I'd wager that they have the two turned around. Even so, only getting 55% of the black vote in a two-way race (18% unsure) looks like a huge problem for the Democrats.
As to those who are unsure, the most significant demographics for the undecided are those that favor Giuliani. That means that we could expect them to break more towards Rudy than Hillary when push comes to shove. All in all, this seems like the kind of boost that Rudy can use to make the case that he provides the best chance for Republicans to beat Hillary next November. John Podhoretz should be dancing over at The Corner with this news.
I don’t blame many conservatives for having qualms about Giuliani, but they shouldn’t rule him out.
No, I am fully anti-abortion. But I don't think politicians hold the solution---Judges do and women do.
I’ll walk over broken glass to vote for anyone over Hillary. Even McCain (not Ron Paul of course, he’s a nut).
Yeah, right.
Hey, I just heard this comedian on XM Comedy talking about as***les and I thought . . . aw, nevermind.
Logic like that gave us Arnold Schwarzenegger. Thanks for nothing!
“Its Rooty Toot who fears FredT, not the other way around.”
Fred is only 1-3 points behind Rudy in Florida. Given he focuses his campaign on Florida and the south....I’d say he has it.
Oh good grief.
Who appoints the judges?
How about this instead?
The trashing of traditional conservative base's values and principles by a Republican is a recipe for failure, and I HATE TO LOSE.
A 'recipe for failure'--is splitting and dividing the Republican Party WIDE-OPEN--and a liberal like JulieAnnie is JUST THE MAN FOR THE JOB!
Not to worry. Rudy and his apolgists have repeatedly assured us that Rudy will appoint personnel and implement policies,,,,
TO PROTECT US FROM LIBERALS LIKE HIMSELF!!!....lol
“The trashing of traditional conservative base’s values and principles by a Republican is a recipe for failure, and I HATE TO LOSE.”
I’m all ears. What are the conservative ideas that you think are winners?
The key to abortion is to reduce the demand made by pregnant women.
“The key to abortion is to reduce the demand made by pregnant women.”
I have one adopted son, and I really think Giuliani is on to something by stressing making adoption easier. It took 5 years for my wife to adopt! That’s ridiculous. But, frankly, Reagan had 8 years and never proposed a law or Constitutional Amendment to ban abortion, and neither did Bush. Romney and Giuliani are about the same as them. Forget the rhetoric and pandering.
I like Giuliani’s concept of cutting abortion in half by favoring adoption.
That's the easiest question I have ever been asked here...lol
How about these--any of the conservative values and principles that Rudy is 180 degrees out of step with--i.e. the ones I mentioned in my first post to you.
As the Gipper so eloquently stated,,,
"So, it was our Republican Party that gave me a political home. When I signed up for duty, I didn't have to check my principles at the door. And I soon found out that the desire for victory did not overcome our devotion to ideals".
--Ronald Reagan remarks at the Republican National Convention in New Orleans, August 15, 1988.
Unlike the Rudy apologists--most conservatives will NOT have to check their principles at the door.
I’ve never voted for a pro-abortion gun-grabbing liberal, and I’m not about to start now. If the GOP nominates a pro-abortion gun-grabbing liberal, they forfeit my vote, and it will be their fault, not mine.
There are many like me.
Stock Trader,
You have absolutely nothing specific in that response.
Then you're a damn fool.
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