Posted on 08/16/2007 6:15:38 PM PDT by bnelson44
Rudy Giuliani got good news earlier this week from a CBS poll that most people have learned to mistrust -- for good reason -- but Rasmussen may provide some corroboration today. According to the normally reliable pollster, Rudy has his first significant lead in head-to-head polling against Hillary Clinton, and the crosstabs show some surprising depth (via Instapundit):
After being virtually tied with Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton for several months, Republican contender Rudy Giuliani now leads Clinton up 47% to 40% in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
In the match-up of the frontrunners, this result marks a significant shift. For the last three months the two frontrunners have never been further apart than three percentage points. Last month, Giuliani and Clinton were separated by just a single point.
Senator Clinton fares modestly better against former Senator Fred Thompson. Clinton now has a three point edge over him, 46% to 43%. All four previous Clinton-Thomas have also been toss-ups.
It's significant that neither top 50% in the poll. Eight percent insist on voting for another candidate, even when the question gets posed as a two-choice affair. Five percent are unsure. We'll come back to them in a moment.
Rudy has some surprising strength in the demographics, especially women. While pundits believe that Hillary would motivate women to flock to her banner, Giuliani actually edges Hillary 44%-42% in this poll -- within the margin of error, to be sure, but much closer than most would imagine. Giuliani has a majority of those between 30-39 years of age (54-36) while Hillary has a slimmer majority in the 40-49 range (50-44). Despite Democratic claims on the youth vote, Hillary only gets a single percentage point lead on Rudy on the 18-29 demo (38-37), and Giuliani has significant leads among those 50 and older.
Otherwise, the only other surprise among the demographics are black voters. Hillary has a lead on Giuliani there, but Rasmussen shows the split 48-41 Hillary. I'd guess this to be a typo. The "Others" category is split 55-11 for Hillary, and I'd wager that they have the two turned around. Even so, only getting 55% of the black vote in a two-way race (18% unsure) looks like a huge problem for the Democrats.
As to those who are unsure, the most significant demographics for the undecided are those that favor Giuliani. That means that we could expect them to break more towards Rudy than Hillary when push comes to shove. All in all, this seems like the kind of boost that Rudy can use to make the case that he provides the best chance for Republicans to beat Hillary next November. John Podhoretz should be dancing over at The Corner with this news.
But unfortunately, he has NO chance of getting the nomination.
CBS news?
NYC liberals Rooting for a NYC liberal.
The GOP primary starts after Thompson enters.
Everybody was conservative in those days, even democrats.
Sad for the entire universe.
“As a Democrat Ronald Reagan voted for Eisenhower twice in 52&56. He than voted for Nixon in 1960. Reagan became a Republican in 1962 and worked for Goldwater`s campaign.”
And, as you have pointed out, Reagan signed the nation’s first abortion law and lived to regret it.
My point is that everyone makes mistakes and everyone evolves.
It may be possible that if Giuliani gets votes in primaries and not just polls, then, you may want to consider supporting a Republican over Hillary Clinton.
Had a short talk with Tancredo a few months back. His intention was to keep the immigration reform and anti-amnesty issues front and center. He's done that. I think in the last few years Tancredo, along with his entire House Immigration Reform Caucus, has done an outstanding job holding Bush adn the GOP accountable when it comes to the immigration issue.
So, if Rudy wins the primary, you’re not voting against Hilliary, huh?
Fill me in bright boy.
Damn right, there is no difference in what they believe, and both of them look about the same in a dress.
Reagan never supported Roe v Wade or abortion on demand.
Rooty Toot is a big time abortionist. He believes a woman has a Constitutional right to kill her unborn child. Giuliani has spoken to NARAL and has been given awards by pro-abortion groups while NYC`s Mayor. Yet you still defend him.
Rooty is a scumbag. Period. And his supporters are no better.
Yes, it appears some here are closet supporters of Bill and Hill, and encouraging others to vote for her or not vote at all, but remember Bill was a brilliant bad boy, and she the smartest women in the world!
They reigned over peace and prosperity for 8 years.
So the MSM tells us.
Rooty isn’t gonna win the primary. Nuff said.
Rudy is not my kind of Republican. He is too liberal on most social issues. He is more a liberal than a moderate. He leaves a lot to be desired. Nevertheless, I will be voting for him in the primary because I believe he will be a bulldog in fighting the war. This issue trumps all others for me. I also like the way he takes good swings at the Democrats. I am sick of the “New Tone” baloney. I do not believe Thompson or Romney can beat the Hildabeast. Rudy will defeat her. I believe any and all of the the Democrats—if God forbid one of them should win the presidency—will surrender the initiative in the war to play politics and please their far left base. They must be defeated at all costs.
Is hitting your stride like spanking your monkey?
“DO NOT compare Rudi to Ronald Reagan.”
I’m not. I’m trying to point out that people like Romney and Giuliani and Reagan and Churchill and everyone else evolve while adapting to their personal experience and to the reality of the situation they find themselves in.
The trashing of the Republican frontrunner by fellow Republicans is a recipe for failure, and I HATE TO LOSE.
You know the deal. You’re defending Rooty in a run against Hillary. Sounds like a dumb move to me. One liberal is no better than another.
Except not all of them are in the closet. It appears some openly admit they would help the Hildabeast get elected if it was between that and voting for the Republican candidate if that candidate were so-and-so.
“I believe he will be a bulldog in fighting the war. This issue trumps all others for me. I also like the way he takes good swings at the Democrats. I am sick of the “New Tone” baloney.”
I loved it when Rudy called the Democrats the Party of failure and defeat. Because it’s true. He has put up with more hostility from pointy headed journalists than you can imagine, and he is much, much better than Bush in dealing with it.
Did you see him shut up and slap down the nitwit who asked him about cutting programs because of his tax cuts? Excellent humiliation of an idiot from the MSM.
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