Posted on 08/16/2007 6:15:38 PM PDT by bnelson44
Rudy Giuliani got good news earlier this week from a CBS poll that most people have learned to mistrust -- for good reason -- but Rasmussen may provide some corroboration today. According to the normally reliable pollster, Rudy has his first significant lead in head-to-head polling against Hillary Clinton, and the crosstabs show some surprising depth (via Instapundit):
After being virtually tied with Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton for several months, Republican contender Rudy Giuliani now leads Clinton up 47% to 40% in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
In the match-up of the frontrunners, this result marks a significant shift. For the last three months the two frontrunners have never been further apart than three percentage points. Last month, Giuliani and Clinton were separated by just a single point.
Senator Clinton fares modestly better against former Senator Fred Thompson. Clinton now has a three point edge over him, 46% to 43%. All four previous Clinton-Thomas have also been toss-ups.
It's significant that neither top 50% in the poll. Eight percent insist on voting for another candidate, even when the question gets posed as a two-choice affair. Five percent are unsure. We'll come back to them in a moment.
Rudy has some surprising strength in the demographics, especially women. While pundits believe that Hillary would motivate women to flock to her banner, Giuliani actually edges Hillary 44%-42% in this poll -- within the margin of error, to be sure, but much closer than most would imagine. Giuliani has a majority of those between 30-39 years of age (54-36) while Hillary has a slimmer majority in the 40-49 range (50-44). Despite Democratic claims on the youth vote, Hillary only gets a single percentage point lead on Rudy on the 18-29 demo (38-37), and Giuliani has significant leads among those 50 and older.
Otherwise, the only other surprise among the demographics are black voters. Hillary has a lead on Giuliani there, but Rasmussen shows the split 48-41 Hillary. I'd guess this to be a typo. The "Others" category is split 55-11 for Hillary, and I'd wager that they have the two turned around. Even so, only getting 55% of the black vote in a two-way race (18% unsure) looks like a huge problem for the Democrats.
As to those who are unsure, the most significant demographics for the undecided are those that favor Giuliani. That means that we could expect them to break more towards Rudy than Hillary when push comes to shove. All in all, this seems like the kind of boost that Rudy can use to make the case that he provides the best chance for Republicans to beat Hillary next November. John Podhoretz should be dancing over at The Corner with this news.
I think Giuliani is leaving Romney and McCain behind. He has built a formidable organization, and has got the message across that he:
1. Will cut taxes.
2. Will reduce the size of the Federal government.
3. Is rock solid on terrorism and foreign policy.
4. Has pledged to put strict constructionists on the Supreme Court.
5. Is fearless in confronting the Liberal media.
6. Is committed to building the wall and an electronic border for Mexico and forcing all illegals to be identified.
7. Is undeniably the best law and order guy out there.
and
8. Has the balls to pound on Congress and anyone else necessary to get his way.
Thompson is worried about reruns, trying to get a staff together, and looking for some money outside his home state.
This nomination is Rudy’s to lose...
Mr Mayor is in a serious groove now.
Only when he gives them amnesty. LOL Rudy is such a useless loser jerk.
I will, and you can put this in the bank, sit on my ass and watch Hilliary elected before I would vote for rudy.
If Rudy the Rumpranger, should by some strange reason, get the Republican nomination. This is one Republican that will not support him in a general election. Of course I won’t vote for Ms. Clinton either. I will either leave that part of the ballot blank, or will vote for a third party candidate if a conservative.
IMO there is no substantial difference between Rudy and Hilly. They both support the homosexual agenda....They both are draconian gun grabbers....They both support the baby killing industry. That’s three strikes to me.
I suspect that many other “conservative base” republicans feel the same way. I cannot in good conscience vote for the Rumpranger. If this causes Hellary to get the job...so be it. At least she is an obvious enemy that doesn’t falsely put an (R) behind her name.
I have this horrible feeling that 2008 is going to be a long sickening year because of all the political nonsense we will be bombarded with.
REPUBLICANS - you had better wake up and nominate someone the bulk of the party can get behind ......that will never be the Rumpranger. “Goldwater” Reps would go to hell and drag the rest of the country with them.
I don’t know what they say at DU and I don’t care.
Around conservative FRee Republic we attack all liberals. We advance conservative candidates around this forum.
You taking offense to my calling Giuliani a lying liberal scumbag, pleases me to no end.
I think you're just heavily biased and that's clouding clear-thinking, don't you?
I’m personally for Mitt, and that’s who I’m going to vote for in the CA primary but...to keep the Hildabeast out of the WH, I would support Rudy 100 percent, should he get the nomination.
Rudy may be a “liberal” to some Freepers, but when you consider what the alternative would be if the GOP loses, he’s a far better alternative.
The only perspective I have in my opinions about liberals is, they're all scumbags.
As a Democrat Ronald Reagan voted for Eisenhower twice in 52&56. He than voted for Nixon in 1960. Reagan became a Republican in 1962 and worked for Goldwater`s campaign.
As we all know, Reagan was a conservative. Giuliani is a liberal. No equating the two.
1. Will cut taxes. (yeah right...not in his lifetime)
2. Will reduce the size of the Federal government. (only because he will only hire homosexuals and that will gross out anyone else from working for the feds)
3. Is rock solid on terrorism and foreign policy.(unless you are a preborn child being murdered by abortionists)
4. Has pledged to put strict constructionists on the Supreme Court. (Unbelievable statment....his idea of strict construction is the destruction of the 2nd Ammendment and granting homosexuals rights never envisioned by the framers - not to mention baby killing)
5. Is fearless in confronting the Liberal media. (He is a liberal.....so of course he doesn’t fear them)
6. Is committed to building the wall and an electronic border for Mexico and forcing all illegals to be identified. (Until he needs someone to mow his lawn cheap)
7. Is undeniably the best law and order guy out there.
and (by taking away all firearms from lawful citizens)
8. Has the balls to pound on Congress and anyone else necessary to get his way. (they will eat his lunch)
Some would, it appears.
Republican Presidential Nomination
RCP Average
Giuliani 27.4%
Thompson 17.4%
McCain 13.1%
Romney 11.6%
Giuliani +10.0%
I take it you’re proud of that?
What about me?
And he, and his buddies, (who would stay home rather than vote for “liberal” Rudy) are just what the Hildabeast is counting on.
You can take THAT to the bank.
Thanks for posting this. I saw this poll earlier today but I was afraid to post it on this board.
One thing I like about Rudy is that he promises to appoint conservative judges to the Supreme Court. You don’t hear the other candidates talk about that much.
However, I am not ready to coronate him yet. I want to see how Fred does in the September 5th debate. I think I will have a better feel of who will be our nominee after that.
I do have a bias. I favor advancing conservatism, promoting conservative candidates and defending the Constitution. Those are the goals of FR.
The last thing on my mind is supporting any liberal. That includes Rudy Giuliani.
Any time. I’m quite happy with my opinion too, thank you.
Tom Tancredo is a great Reagan conservative and a fellow Coloradan to boot.
Feelings hurt? LOL
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