Posted on 08/16/2007 6:15:38 PM PDT by bnelson44
Rudy Giuliani got good news earlier this week from a CBS poll that most people have learned to mistrust -- for good reason -- but Rasmussen may provide some corroboration today. According to the normally reliable pollster, Rudy has his first significant lead in head-to-head polling against Hillary Clinton, and the crosstabs show some surprising depth (via Instapundit):
After being virtually tied with Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton for several months, Republican contender Rudy Giuliani now leads Clinton up 47% to 40% in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
In the match-up of the frontrunners, this result marks a significant shift. For the last three months the two frontrunners have never been further apart than three percentage points. Last month, Giuliani and Clinton were separated by just a single point.
Senator Clinton fares modestly better against former Senator Fred Thompson. Clinton now has a three point edge over him, 46% to 43%. All four previous Clinton-Thomas have also been toss-ups.
It's significant that neither top 50% in the poll. Eight percent insist on voting for another candidate, even when the question gets posed as a two-choice affair. Five percent are unsure. We'll come back to them in a moment.
Rudy has some surprising strength in the demographics, especially women. While pundits believe that Hillary would motivate women to flock to her banner, Giuliani actually edges Hillary 44%-42% in this poll -- within the margin of error, to be sure, but much closer than most would imagine. Giuliani has a majority of those between 30-39 years of age (54-36) while Hillary has a slimmer majority in the 40-49 range (50-44). Despite Democratic claims on the youth vote, Hillary only gets a single percentage point lead on Rudy on the 18-29 demo (38-37), and Giuliani has significant leads among those 50 and older.
Otherwise, the only other surprise among the demographics are black voters. Hillary has a lead on Giuliani there, but Rasmussen shows the split 48-41 Hillary. I'd guess this to be a typo. The "Others" category is split 55-11 for Hillary, and I'd wager that they have the two turned around. Even so, only getting 55% of the black vote in a two-way race (18% unsure) looks like a huge problem for the Democrats.
As to those who are unsure, the most significant demographics for the undecided are those that favor Giuliani. That means that we could expect them to break more towards Rudy than Hillary when push comes to shove. All in all, this seems like the kind of boost that Rudy can use to make the case that he provides the best chance for Republicans to beat Hillary next November. John Podhoretz should be dancing over at The Corner with this news.
I think Giuliani is leaving Romney and McCain behind. He has built a formidable organization, and has got the message across that he:
1. Will cut taxes.
2. Will reduce the size of the Federal government.
3. Is rock solid on terrorism and foreign policy.
4. Has pledged to put strict constructionists on the Supreme Court.
5. Is fearless in confronting the Liberal media.
6. Is committed to building the wall and an electronic border for Mexico and forcing all illegals to be identified.
7. Is undeniably the best law and order guy out there.
and
8. Has the balls to pound on Congress and anyone else necessary to get his way.
Thompson is worried about reruns, trying to get a staff together, and looking for some money outside his home state.
This nomination is Rudy’s to lose...
If rudy or hillary are elected to be the next President of the United States it will be a sad day for the entire planet.
Anything would be better than Hitlery.
I don’t think so. Rudy if he miraculously wins the GOP nod, will be the end of the GOP. We can ill afford a flaming liberal as president. And that “rock solid” on terrorism and foreign policy is utterly misplaced
Its Rooty Toot who fears FredT, not the other way around.
Anybody who can beat Hilliary isn’t all bad.
9. Wear a pink gown to his first state dinner.
Please Lord, keep them away from Oval Office, they have stained it enough.
I clicked onto this thread to read the rudy-bashers, and was not disappointed. Rudy’s not my first (or second) choice, but would you really sit on your hands and let hillary be elected?
I think Rudy is the man!!
1. If you like sanctuary cities.
2. If you just love homosexual special rights.
3. If adultery doesn’t bother you.
4. If Baby killing is your thing.
5. If you don’t have a conservative bone in your body.
6. If you ‘ll vote for anything that calls itself “republican”
Then he really is coming on strong!!
Besides, Rudy's daughter will cancel out your vote by voting for OsamaObama.
Will the Freepers have to decide who they hate worse, Rudy or Hillary? Keep watching here.
“Rooty is a lying liberal scumbag.”
You sound like a DUer, except they call him a Republican scumbag.
No discernible difference between them.
Dear Mr. Reagan Man,
Ronald Reagan was once a liberal Democrat union organizer whose first vote was for Franklin Roosevelt.
Do you have any “perspective” in your opinions, or are you just angry?...
That’s no lady, that’s our nominee...
Hopefully he'll do just that.
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