...Dean remains an extremely dangerous hurricane...heavy squalls spreading over Hispaniola...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to Barahona...and for coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including western Cuba...and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 200 PM AST...1800z...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 69.4 west or about 505 miles... 815 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 175 miles... 285 km...south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A general track between the west and west-northwest is forecast during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will be moving south of Hispaniola today and early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km.
Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force hurricane hunter plane was 930 mb...27.46 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Amounts of 2 to 3 inches can be expected over the Dominican Republic and Haiti with amounts up to 6 inches possible. Additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over Puerto Rico...with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches. These rains could cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 200 PM AST position...15.9 N...69.4 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure...930 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Avila
I an definately in the camp that it will hit in the northern 1/3rd of the current cone.
Prayers out to everyone to make the wisest choices in it's path.....
Thats a large cone area, hope it stays to the south, but, sometimes these critters get a mind of their own and defy all the models.
I wonder if that 3D animated GFDL model is experimental.