Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Rte66]

*when I die, I may not go to heaven,
I don’t know if they let cowgirls in ...
if they don’t, just let me Go To Texas,
cuz Texas is as close as I’ve been.*

[Red Badger]

FL recently passed a law that makes all gas stations have generators for after the storm so the pumps work, but it will be a while before all are in compliance................

[Sunnyflorida]

“Next house we build will be even better (more like yours).”

I cut out a lot of frills and a ton of sqft to get this. I also did not rely on local design standards and talent. The key is learn and bug the crap out of builders, engineers and contractors. Then shop. Buy when they have sales on generators and pumps plus look around for water and fuel tanks.

[Rte66]

I’ve *heard* the filling trucks are already en route to their strategic locations for *us,* just so you know, lol.

[eastforker]

It wasn’t that they didn’t have power, they didn’t have any gas and no one was making deliveries.

[SouthTexas]

Now all they need is pipelines from the refineries. ;)

[Eaker]

How are you going to get plywood into a gas can?

Damn shame about the fishing trip!

[eastforker]

With 4 dogs, 2 cats and a pot bellied pig I ain’t going nowhere, oh, did I mention my recent ammo purchase.

[11th_VA]

Holly crap, what an outlier ... What are the chances ...

[Red Badger]

We had gas in the ground tanks around town and the fuel depot points, but we had no way to pump for nearly a week here and up to three weeks in some places.........

[txhurl]

I tend to agree with you, but the GFDL model doesn’t. It’s giving Dean to Houston.

[SouthTexas]

Been there, done that, but had no particular place to go anyway so it didn’t matter. :)

[steve86]

If anyone needs gas cans in Houston you better go get em now, the first 2 stores I stopped at today(walmart and Lowes) were already sold out.

If your Walmarts down south are like ours up north there should be a boating section with six gallon plastic tanks for small boats. Our Walmarts usually have a dozen or so of those. Might be a couple left in some stores down there.

[eastforker]

Damn shame about the fishing trip!

We got plenty of warm weather left for that, as for the plywood, I am more worried about a tree falling into the house. Out in this neck of the woods if the power does go out, we are some of the last to get it restored, also bought another window unit, ya just never know.

[Rte66]

Heh heh, I see what you mean.

[Red Badger]

...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

This is from the discussion at NHC. Earlier discussions said that this model has been very accurate in the past......They don't know why it's going against the pattern.......

[HollyB]

looks like a lone-ranger forecaster, doesn’t it?

[Rte66]

Not anymore. It has backed off down to s of Corpus, but north of Brownsville. Earlier it showed Matagorda and *that* was bad.

Never fear, the coastal bend will save us. Yeah, that’s the ticket! Oh, and there’s me, the anti-hurricane charm.

[txhurl]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/storm_radar/dean04l.2007081800_anim.gif?cache=134

[LiveFreeOrDie2001]

"Looks like the U.S. is going to make it out of this one just fine. I normally would wait to be so confident, but this storm is tracking great... "

I ain't buying it one bit.

It has been tracking more northerly lately. That is KEY for it to be able to track in the northern end of the cone.

The farther north it tracks now, the less likely it will head into Mexico...