Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[mrsmel]

Thanks NautiNurse, when I hear of a hurricane in the vicinity, I come straight here and look for your thread :)

[Chasaway]

Thanks...we’re on Padre Island outside of Corpus. We’re watching this, too.

[NautiNurse]

I would scrap the entertainment center, using only a small portable tv with antennae. Cable, satellite and phones can and will go out during/after the storm. Laptop with extra battery is a good investment.

Save the generator and fuel for small tv, fan, refrigeration, computer, battery and cell phone rechargers. You'll think of other things to plug into the generator like lights too. Otherwise, it's like fancy camping.

[mrsmel]

Ours gets hooked up to the window A/C in my bathroom, the fridge, and the deep freeze. Anything else can just eat batteries. The A/C is a must-have.

[NautiNurse]

I agree. Have a window a/c downstairs too. Have a small refrigerator down there too. They’re both high efficiency and perfect for running via generator.

[blam]

" My poor husband...*L* Toughed out Isabel on a US Navy fast attack submarine and toughed out Ivan when he was attending Navy school at NAS Pensacola."

I was on diesel subs in the early 60's and we were required to ride out hurricanes on the surface. Is this the case with the new subs?

[mrsmel]

Good idea, on the small fridge. I’ll have to get one. I camped in my bathroom after Katrina, sleeping on the floor in there.

[Severa]

Not sure what the ‘rule’ is but during Isabel they were a couple hundred feet underwater when the CO decided he wanted to go to periscope depth for a look-see. My husband said you could hear the cooks cussing in the galley as the dishes they didn’t manage to stow crashed to the floor.

[Hang'emAll]

I don’t feel good about this one. Looks like its going to Mexico but could take a right. Seems like most storms do that eventually.

We’ll find out next week.

[blam]

"My husband said you could hear the cooks cussing in the galley as the dishes they didn’t manage to stow crashed to the floor."

Yup, I'm familiar with the crazy cooks. Try baking bread while snorkelling in a rain storm.

[NautiNurse]

Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on August 16, 2007

 
... Air Force hurricane hunter plane reaches Hurricane Dean...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of Dominica
and St. Lucia. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

 
A Hurricane Watch continues for the islands of Martinique...
Guadeloupe and its dependencies. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours. The government of France indicates that a
Hurricane Warning will likely be issued this afternoon for
Martinique...Guadeloupe and its dependencies.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following islands
of the Lesser Antilles... Grenada and its dependencies...St.
Vincent and The Grenadines...Barbados...Saba...St. Eustatius...
monserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda and St. Maarten.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Additional changes to watches and warnings will likely occur later
today.

 
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles...the Virgin Islands...
Puerto Rico...and Hispaniola should monitor the progress 
of Dean.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
At 200 PM AST...1800z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 13.8 north...longitude 55.5 west or about 275 miles...
440 km...east of Barbados and about 365 miles...590 km...east of
Martinique.

 
Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue today.  On this track the center of
Dean will be near the Lesser Antilles early Friday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Dean is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale.  Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely
over elevated terrain.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours.  A new stepped-frequency microwave radiometer
instrument on board of the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft just
measured 90 mph...150 km/hr surface winds while making its first
entrance to the hurricane.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from
the center.  Data from NOAA buoy 41040 indicates that tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...from the
center.

 
Minimum central pressure estimated by the Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft was 970 mb...28.64 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible
near the center of Dean.

 
Storm total rainfalls of 2 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum
amounts of 7 inches in mountainous areas...are possible in
association with Dean.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

 
Repeating the 200 PM AST position...13.8 N...55.5 W.  Movement
toward...west near 23 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...90 mph.
Minimum central pressure...970 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.

 
$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake

[mcshot]

Goodness, extending the “GFDL” line would impact near NOLA and perhaps answer the question of developing below sea level; and trying to alter Ma Nature.
I’m safely up north but follow these threads closely as have family and, of course, FReepers in affected areas.
mc

[4everontheRight]

You know, it seems we just got over the last one and here is another season!! Thanks for the ping.

Prayers going out to those affected....my dad still lives along the MS Gulf Coast...I sure hope it stays away from his area!

[macmedic892]

Anyone remember Katrina’s impact on the nation?

I remember!
George Bush doesn't care about black people!

[TornadoAlley3]

[mware]

If this is August, we must be in hurricane season.

Wonder how many ball caps Shep will lose this season?

There still must be missing ball caps from his time reporting on Katrina.

[NautiNurse]

Shep was all sorts of worked up about Houston flooding from Erin and Dean's strengthening possibilities this afternoon.

I'll wager he uses bobby pins this time.

[dirtboy]

Dean's pulling in some drier air from the north - you can see a dry slot spiralling into the center in the current sat photos. This is the same Saharan dry air that inhibited hurricanes last year in the Atlantic.

However, Dean will soon be west of that dry air. And the heat potential in the central and western Caribbean is similar to that in 2005. So Dean has a very good chance to become a Cat 5 unless it hits Jamaica or Cuba directly.

[varina davis]

Right now, the mets (and models) appear to think the building ridge to the north of Dean will keep it south and mostly west. Of course, if the ridge doesn’t keep a westerly pace with Dean’s route, things could change. As it is now, I’m afraid central or north central Texas could be dealing with Dean in about 5 days.

[Chasaway]

I REALLY don’t want you to not feel good about this one!

I’m looking forward to you feeling good about it.

[grinning hopefully]