[dirtboy]

Dean's pulling in some drier air from the north - you can see a dry slot spiralling into the center in the current sat photos. This is the same Saharan dry air that inhibited hurricanes last year in the Atlantic.

However, Dean will soon be west of that dry air. And the heat potential in the central and western Caribbean is similar to that in 2005. So Dean has a very good chance to become a Cat 5 unless it hits Jamaica or Cuba directly.

[varina davis]

Right now, the mets (and models) appear to think the building ridge to the north of Dean will keep it south and mostly west. Of course, if the ridge doesn’t keep a westerly pace with Dean’s route, things could change. As it is now, I’m afraid central or north central Texas could be dealing with Dean in about 5 days.