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Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

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Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

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Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; tropical; tsdean
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To: CindyDawg

Bouy 42059—29.72, down .04 falling


481 posted on 08/17/2007 8:35:24 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the ping.


482 posted on 08/17/2007 8:36:49 PM PDT by Wandaroos
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To: NautiNurse
This will be my last VDM post of the night...

491 
URNT12 KNHC 180328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/02:58:10Z
B. 14 deg 53 min N
  065 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2547 m
D. 126 kt
E. 148 deg 007 nm
F. 245 deg 117 kt
G. 141 deg 005 nm
H.        935  mb
I.  11 C/ 3049 m
J.  20 C/ 3028 m
K.  10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 /  2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 17
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 129KT @ 03:00:50Z
Motion over the last 1:43 was 274 degrees (just north of west) at approximately 17 mph. Pressure down slightly (2 mb) to 935 mb. This was a SE-to-NW run so the 138-knot flight-level wind in the northeast quadrant holds for now.
483 posted on 08/17/2007 8:38:06 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg
Bouy 42059 wave height:


484 posted on 08/17/2007 8:38:30 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: SouthTexas
Watching the Global Warming Channel and they are almost having an orgasm.

Their ratings must skyrocket with this stuff. Even my local pub turned it on after baseball and football.

485 posted on 08/17/2007 8:42:08 PM PDT by AGreatPer (Karl Rove for President)
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To: varina davis
Anyone remember Katrina’s impact on the nation?

Do you buy gasoline?

486 posted on 08/17/2007 8:43:11 PM PDT by lonestar
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To: alancarp
You're pretty close. The top estimated surface-level wind on that particular inbound run (D at relative-to-eyewall position E) is a bit more precise with this particular plane because of some advanced equipment not on most of the others.

Usually, you'll want to concentrate on the MAX FL wind at the bottom.

487 posted on 08/17/2007 8:45:34 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: AGreatPer
I imagine they must be delirious. Two storms hitting Texas right after Karl Rove retired.

Someone needs to take control of the weather machine thingy!

488 posted on 08/17/2007 8:45:35 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: SouthTexas
Conditions at 42059 as of
0250 GMT on 08/18/2007:
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 17.1 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 7.6 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 83.7 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

489 posted on 08/17/2007 8:45:53 PM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: SouthTexas

I’ve got 42059 gone by midnight CDT.


490 posted on 08/17/2007 8:46:21 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: SouthTexas

Airline Cancellations From SJU starting:

2 St. Lucia, 1 Bridgetown trip canceled, all Eagle ATR’s...


491 posted on 08/17/2007 8:50:16 PM PDT by tcrlaf (You can lead a Liberal to LOGIC, but you can't make it THINK)
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To: steveegg

Exactly why I gave the disclaimer! But maybe you can enlighten me here: That ‘flight level’ wind figure at the bottom — are we talking a few thousand feet up? Or is that the closest thing we have to a ground-level number?


492 posted on 08/17/2007 8:50:37 PM PDT by alancarp (How many millions have to break a law before it's inconvenient to enforce?)
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To: steveegg
I’ve got 42059 gone by midnight CDT.

Maybe, but 42039 (Pensacola) captured data on the 30 ft waves before it was lost to Ivan.

493 posted on 08/17/2007 8:51:22 PM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: dirtboy

The key is hitting the Yucatan. You’ll notice the one track that hits Texas avoids land altogether until it reaches Corpus Christi. All the others slam into the Yucutan which is bound to sap some of its energy but may also cause a serious course correction. Hurricanes are like spinning tops and once they bump into something they’ll bounce. Which direction it bounces in will determine where it moves on from there.

The other key is frontal systems and pressure ridges. I don’t think there is one forecast for Texas/Mexico next week so there shouldn’t be anything to impede it’s westward movement other than the Yucutan. That’s the key.


494 posted on 08/17/2007 8:51:44 PM PDT by Tall_Texan (Global warming? Hell, in Texas, we just call that "summer".)
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To: steveegg
I think it will go past midnight, but won't see daybreak.

Wonder if it will "log off"? :)

495 posted on 08/17/2007 8:51:46 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: Dysart

probably because a dufus admin put it there


496 posted on 08/17/2007 8:51:57 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: steveegg

Put me down for 0300 AST.


497 posted on 08/17/2007 8:52:46 PM PDT by Rte66
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To: Tall_Texan

I hope the people renting my time share in Cancun know to try and get out of there.


498 posted on 08/17/2007 8:54:58 PM PDT by AGreatPer (Karl Rove for President)
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To: alancarp; NautiNurse
Exactly why I gave the disclaimer! But maybe you can enlighten me here: That ‘flight level’ wind figure at the bottom — are we talking a few thousand feet up? Or is that the closest thing we have to a ground-level number?

That's a direct measurement at (usually) whatever the aircraft is at flying the 700 mb flight level (sometimes 850 mb). That's about 10,000 feet up in a major hurricane, and IIRC, the usual conversion to sea-level winds is 90%.

Of course, it's been close to a year since I had to try to remember this, so some help please.

499 posted on 08/17/2007 8:55:56 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: SouthTexas

I doubt it will see the “You have successfully logged off the NOAA buoy reporting network.” screen.


500 posted on 08/17/2007 8:57:07 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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