Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[varina davis]

NHC 9:35 update: winds now at 145 Cat. 4

[Robert A Cook PE]

What’s a GDFL?

[NautiNurse]

[steveegg]

That it is.

Corrected pressure is 937 mb. That's the second time we've had a garbled pressure out of the vortex data report today. The rest of the data is the same, however.

[shield]

LOL...He’s dead, Jim. ;o)

[steveegg]

I wonder if Gramma will use the phrase “stable condition”. :-)

[SouthTexas]

Not enough to suit me yet. It’s going to have to take a left turn somewhere to keep the rain away.

[steveegg]

The way he’s bombing up, he might hit cat 5 tonight.

[tapatio]

bump

[mutley]

The way he’s bombing up, he might hit cat 5 tonight.

I think you may be right about that.

[SouthTexas]

It's one of the track models. Here's a summary of all of them from NHC>

[Rte66]

So, that was from 946 to 937? What time period?

I have puter problems keeping me from going to the usual weather spots I haunt, so have to rely on the thread info.

[steveegg]

That was a 9-mb drop over roughly 1:40. The time of the fix is item A in the vortex data messages NautiNurse, others, and I post.

As NN said, it's still a bit high for a Cat 5, but we've still got a couple hours in the day and a lot more overnight. Worse, we've got nice, hot waters.

[NautiNurse]

[Rte66]

I believe the term “GDFL” came into the lexicon about the same time as “hanging chads” did.

However, the GFDL is a computer model for tropical weathercasting.

Sorry, just being silly!

[Letitring]

CNN says La. has declared a state of emergency?

[Rte66]

Yeah, I’m watching for 920’s.

[numberonepal]

It's looking like this bouy will be directly in Dean's sights. Buoy position is 15.01 N 67.5 W. The last position on Dean was 14.9 N 65.1 W with movement toward the west.

Conditions at 42059 as of 0150 GMT on 08/18/2007:
	Wind Direction (WDIR):	NNE ( 20 deg true )
	Wind Speed (WSPD):	27.2 kts
	Wind Gust (GST):	36.9 kts
	Wave Height (WVHT):	13.1 ft
	Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	9 sec
	Average Period (APD):	6.5 sec
	Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.75 in
	Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.03 in ( Falling )
	Air Temperature (ATMP):	83.7 °F
	Water Temperature (WTMP):	83.8 °F
	Dew Point (DEWP):	73.9 °F
	Heat Index (HEAT):	90.5 °F
	Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[steveegg]

I want a burial (preferably right as Dean stalls over Havana and sits there for a couple days to weaken).

[Rte66]

Heh heh. Kids in NOLA are already stealing buses!