Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[floriduh voter]

A 4? That didn’t take long.

[steveegg]

I thought the bionic storms were 2 years ago. Unfortunately, I won’t be able to follow this one 24/7 like then (or is that fortunately; seeing that 2-mile-wide eye on Wilma scared me).

[mutley]

We weren't supposed to see 120 knots until tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully Dean will run out of steam quickly.

That's possible, of course, but not likely. Environment looks good, and the water just keeps getting warmer.

[shield]

That’s JUST ONE MODEL...

[steveegg]

If we could get that rain up to Minnesota, it would be good. Just got back from vacation there and the northeast arrowhead has an almost-total fire ban (allowed only in fire pits within 1 mile of Lake Superior and then only between 6 pm and midnight).

[steveegg]

That's possible, of course, but not likely. Environment looks good, and the water just keeps getting warmer.

Somebody dug up a pic comparing SSTs from the 14th of this year with those from the 14th in 2005 and put it upthread. There isn't a super-heated pool, but the warm water is even more spread out now.

[Rte66]

I’m well aware of that - but it’s the one I was discussing, in relation to what Mayfield said on our local news tonight - about his putting a lot of faith in it. I have done so, too, in the past.

[shield]

You don’t have the heat...we have...

[mutley]

Somebody dug up a pic comparing SSTs from the 14th of this year with those from the 14th in 2005 and put it upthread.

I went back and looked at that. Indeed, and here's a better view.

[Uncle Ike]

Bump for sleep.....

[steveegg]

True that. There was already one serious fire up there earlier this year that almost took out my outfitter twice and, had the winds been a bit slower, the entire route I canoed.

[shield]

Sorry to hear that. Pray for rain.

[steveegg]

That’s some serious bathwater. Should’ve known something was up when the Caribbean felt oh-so-nice back in mid-April off of Montego Bay.

[steveegg]

Praying for rain up there and not a lot of rain down where you are.

[SouthTexas]

It's more bathtub than you can imagine towards the end of summer. :)

Which is now.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Thanks for the ping, NN; we’ll be watching ol’ Dean closely!

Is it too early to start eating the chocolate?

Can I ask the hurricane pingers for prayers for my dh’s family today, my mother-in-law died at 3:05 a.m. this morning.

Thanks, and God bless.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
My Prayers Up and GOD Bless ya’ll...

[dragnet2]

That's possible, of course, but not likely. Environment looks good, and the water just keeps getting warmer.

I tend to agree. This thing could possibly turn into a super storm in the gulf.

[shield]

I’ve had plenty of rain. That’s when I start praying and then rain comes.

[mutley]

I tend to agree. This thing could possibly turn into a super storm in the gulf.

It's sure looking that way. A cat 4 already, with warmer water as it moves towards landfall somewhere. I just hope that ULL on Florida's east coast moves west as predicted, and keeps it going into Mexico. That would be great for us, but bad for the Mexicans.

[floriduh voter]

Please remember freepers along the coastline in your prayers. There are lots and lots of us.

Fregards and thanks, Floriduh Voter