Some Straw Poll highlights (read this post as my saying to you: “yah, sure, Iowa helps you ‘handicap’ the nomination race effectively /extreme sarc):
1987: Heading into the ‘88 nomination battle, Vice President George Bush was viewed as the front-runner. He had all the money and the key Iowa endorsements. Sen. Bob Dole, from neighboring Kansas, was hoping that his Midwest connections would help his cause. No one foresaw the victory of Pat Robertson, the televangelist. Robertson, who had already done surprisingly well in the early skirmishes in Michigan, won the straw poll with 1,293 votes, compared to 958 for Dole. Bush finished third, with 864 votes, followed by Rep. Jack Kemp of New York (520), ex-Delaware Gov. Pete du Pont (160), and former Secretary of State Alexander Haig (12). Iowa Republican officials were stunned, saying that the people who showed up for Robertson were completely new to the political process. The results clearly shook the Bush camp, though it’s not clear to what extent: At the February 1988 Iowa caucuses, Bush again finished third (Dole first, Robertson second). But Bush did go on to win the nomination and the presidency.
1979: Not much attention was paid to the straw poll that year. But George H.W. Bush outworked, out-hustled and outspent front-runner Ronald Reagan at the straw poll, winning with 35.7 percent over a field that also included former Texas Gov. John Connally, Sens. Howard Baker of Tennessee and Bob Dole of Kansas, and Illinois congressmen Phil Crane and John Anderson. Bush beat Reagan again the following year at the caucuses. Still, Reagan breezed to the nomination.
I’ve explained this a few times, and I guess I will again.
The Iowa straw poll isn’t about who is the winner nearly as much as it is about who are the losers. If you are a struggling candidate and you need Iowa to break out and you fail, then it is pretty much over for you, because it’s your one chance to do it. If you are not already a winner, then it hurts to be a loser there. This is the point about both Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter. The same probably goes for Tancredo and Brownback.
It has no bearing on any of the “top tier” candidates, with the exception of Romney, who needed to prove he can build a winning organization, since he’s trailing the others. McCain is DOA and was written off a long time ago so nothing he does matters, win, lose, or otherwise. And Ron Paul is orbiting Planet Truther so he’s more like the sideshow than part of the actual circus.
THAT is how you properly handicap the Iowa straw poll.