I’ve explained this a few times, and I guess I will again.
The Iowa straw poll isn’t about who is the winner nearly as much as it is about who are the losers. If you are a struggling candidate and you need Iowa to break out and you fail, then it is pretty much over for you, because it’s your one chance to do it. If you are not already a winner, then it hurts to be a loser there. This is the point about both Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter. The same probably goes for Tancredo and Brownback.
It has no bearing on any of the “top tier” candidates, with the exception of Romney, who needed to prove he can build a winning organization, since he’s trailing the others. McCain is DOA and was written off a long time ago so nothing he does matters, win, lose, or otherwise. And Ron Paul is orbiting Planet Truther so he’s more like the sideshow than part of the actual circus.
THAT is how you properly handicap the Iowa straw poll.
So Pat Robertson really caught fire after he won in ‘89? Your analysis is weak. Basically, what I see from the results in the past is that the Iowa straw poll doesn’t matter at all.