Forecaster lowers '07 hurricane estimate

Yahoo ^

[Sub-Driver]

Forecaster lowers '07 hurricane estimate

15 minutes ago

Hurricane researcher William Gray lowered his 2007 forecast slightly Friday, calling for 15 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming intense.

On May 31, at the outset of hurricane season, Gray had called for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense.

"We've lowered our forecast from our May predictions because of slightly less favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic," said Philip Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team at Colorado State University.

The new forecast calls for three named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane in August; five named storms, four hurricanes and two intense hurricanes in September; and five named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane in October and November combined.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

[Kirkwood]

I believe we’ve had 3 already with Chantal (sp?) sticking in my head as the last named one, but as a local meteorolgist pointed out, a couple of those depressions shouldn’t have been named storms because they lasted only for a few hours. It looks like the Hurricane forcasters are naming storms in order to increase the total number for the year to match their lousy predictions.

[kromike]

There is only once answer: We must all go naked.

Unless I live on Planet Strip-Club, that is no answer. Do you really want to recommend that Rosie O'Donnell, Helen Thomas, Nancy Pelosi, and She-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named walk around in their birthday suits?

Blechhhh...

[TheOldSchool]

Al Gore on suicide watch.........

[JZelle]

Just kidding

[CholeraJoe]

Doppler radar can tell when it’s going to rain in 2 hours but to go much beyond that, they would have just as much luck slaughtering a chicken and examining the entrails.

[tgslTakoma]

now wait a minute - this can't be. Where is AlGore to explain why this is???????

Well, this is certainly good news, and no doubt due to AlGore's energizing and mobilizing the world to stop Global Warming.

Thank you, AlGore - for stopping at least two hurricanes this year.

/sarc

[Aquinasfan]

Where is AlGore to explain why this is?

A decrease in the number of hurricanes proves global warming, as does an increase. Any questions?

[Terpin]

A couple of named tropical storms in the mid-atlantic would be a good thing. I’ll pass on the hurricanes though.

[tomnbeverly]

First of all every professional scientist knows that less Hurricanes are an indication that global warming exists in this cooling climate... Yes you see everyone watched The Day After Tomorrow and that explains why we will have decreased Hurricanes in the Summer but in the Winter we can expect massive hurricanes that suck super cooled outer space air down to the earth to cause and ice age which will require global warming to get back to an equal balance... so you see we need to create more CO2 gas in order to stop the impending Ice age...

No I’m not really a large brained scientist, nor a Liberal radical activist...

I just slept at a Holidy Inn Express last night....

LOL

[RckyRaCoCo]

[meowmeow]

Maybe if they had to walk around naked, they would take better care of themselves.

Or it will just be like anything else...after enough exposure you just don't care any more.

[Cailleach]

It will be OK, because TV’s and computers are surely bad for your carbon footies or whatever...so unless you live next door to any of them, you don’t have to worry about seeing them! :P

[Charles Martel]

Since plants are living things, PETA should also crusade for vegetable rights and refrain from eating both animal and vegetable products.

People For The Ethical Treatment Of Vegetables Also

[saganite]

Karl Rove is still depressed from the ‘06 election results and doesn’t play with the Hurricane machine as much as he used to.

[niteowl]

Yeah, I think they have been padding the stats lately. I remember hearing from somewhere that Andrea, touted here as the "eight-earliest cyclone since 1851", would not have even gotten a name until about 5 years ago. It originated off the the mid-Atlantic coast (like around the Carolinas), not the tropics.

[RetiredArmy]

Okay. The only one that I could remember was the one that came up Florida and hit FLA and south GA and along the GA coast. It helped put out those large fires that GA was having down there earlier this year. That is the ONLY one that I can remember at all. They will name a thunder storm if it helps their agendas.

[gridlock]

This is the second time the estimate has been lowered. As more and more of the Summer passes, it only makes sense to lower the prediction.

The larger question, though, is what is the purpose of this “prediction”? It doesn’t make sense from a preparedness point of view, because whether the number of storms is 6 or 16, the chances of it hitting any particular point is still small.

The technique used to make this prediction is obviously deficient. Since the prediction serves no purpose, the NWS should just dispense with the practice, altogether.