Posted on 07/11/2007 4:09:32 PM PDT by Anti-Bubba182
WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded al-Qaida has rebuilt its operating capability to a level not seen since just before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, The Associated Press has learned.
The conclusion suggests that the group that launched the most devastating terror attack on the United States has been able to rebuild despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed at crippling it.
Still, numerous government officials say they know of no specific, credible threat of a new attack.
A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the new government threat assessment called it a stark appraisal that will be discussed at the White House on Thursday as part of a broader meeting on an upcoming National Intelligence Estimate.
The official and others spoke on condition of anonymity because the secret report remains classified.
Counterterrorism analysts produced the document, titled "Al-Qaida better positioned to strike the West." The document pays special heed to the terror group's safe haven in Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat posed to the United States and its allies, officials said.
Al-Qaida is "considerably operationally stronger than a year ago" and has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the official said, paraphrasing the report's conclusions. "They are showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the United States."
The group also has created "the most robust training program since with an interest in using European operatives," the official quoted the report as saying.
At the same time, this official said, the report speaks of "significant gaps in intelligence" so U.S. authorities may be ignorant of potential or planned attacks.
John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed the concerns about al-Qaida's resurgence during testimony and conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday.
"They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen testified. "We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that activity rising."
The threat assessment comes as the National Intelligence Council is preparing a National Intelligence Estimate focusing on threats to the United States. A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity while the high-level analysis was being finalized, said the document has been in the works for roughly two years.
Kringen and aides to National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell would not comment on the details of that analysis. "Preparation of the estimate is not a response to any specific threat," McConnell's spokesman Ross Feinstein said, adding that it would be ready for distribution this summer.
Counterterrorism officials have been increasingly concerned about al- Qaida's recent operations. This week, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States faced a heightened risk of attack this summer.
Kringen said he wouldn't attach a summer timeframe to the concern. In studying the threat, he said he begins with the premise that al-Qaida would consider attacking the U.S. a "home run hit" and that the easiest way to get into the United States would be through Europe.
The new threat assessment puts particular focus on Pakistan, as did Kringen.
"Sooner or later you have to quit permitting them to have a safe haven" along the Afghan-Pakistani border, he told the House committee. "At the end of the day, when we have had success, it is when you've been able to get them worried about who was informing on them, get them worried about who was coming after them."
Several European countries—among them Britain, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands—are also highlighted in the threat assessment partly because they have arrangements with the Pakistani government that allow their citizens easier access to Pakistan than others, according to the counterterrorism official.
This is more troubling because all four are part of the U.S. visa waiver program, and their citizens can enter the United States without additional security scrutiny, the official said.
The Bush administration has repeatedly cited al-Qaida as a key justification for continuing the fight in Iraq.
"The number one enemy in Iraq is al-Qaida. Al-Qaida continues to be the chief organizer of mayhem within Iraq, the chief organization for killing innocent Iraqis," White House press secretary Tony Snow said Wednesday.
The findings could bolster the president's hand at a moment when support on Capitol Hill for the war is eroding and the administration is struggling to defend its decision for a military buildup in Iraq. A progress report that the White House is releasing to Congress this week is expected to indicate scant progress on the political and military benchmarks set for Iraq.
The threat assessment says that al-Qaida stepped up efforts to "improve its core operational capability" in late 2004 but did not succeed until December of 2006 after the Pakistani government signed a peace agreement with tribal leaders that effectively removed government military presence from the northwest frontier with Afghanistan.
The agreement allows Taliban and al-Qaida operatives to move across the border with impunity and establish and run training centers, the report says, according to the official.
It also says that al-Qaida is particularly interested in building up the numbers in its middle ranks, or operational positions, so there is not as great a lag in attacks when such people are killed.
"Being No. 3 in al-Qaida is a bad job. We regularly get to the No. 3 person," Tom Fingar, the top U.S. intelligence analyst, told the House panel.
The counterterror official said the report does not focus on Osama bin Laden, his whereabouts or his role in al-Qaida. Officials say the network has become more like a "family-oriented" mob organization with leadership roles in cells and other groups being handed from father to son, or cousin to uncle.
Yet bin Laden's whereabouts are still of great interest to intelligence agencies. Although he has not been heard from for some time, Kringen said officials believe he is still alive and living under the protection of tribal leaders in the border area.
Armed Services Committee members expressed frustration that more was not being done to get bin Laden and tamp down activity in the tribal areas. The senior intelligence analysts tried to portray the difficulty of operating in the area, despite a $25 million bounty on the head of bin Laden and his top deputy.
"They are in an environment that is more hostile to us than it is to al-Qaida," Fingar said.
I’ll bet one of the al-Qaeda training facilities is in Islamberg, NY
Well, I would say ALL congress would need (and indeed does even currently) to be held accountable. As I’ve been saying since 911, it is insanity to let the enemy walk your kingdom during times of war. When there is the second wave in America I would expect no less than what was done during ww2. Anything less than that and I will have to think there are indeed alternate plans for our great land... nonwithstanding the muslims.
“A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity while the high-level analysis was being finalized, said the document has been in the works for roughly two years.”
Does anyone here see the key words? This is in other words an opinion of a report that doesn’t exist yet. If this is really the CIA’s assessment though, it would mean that they’re too busy yapping to the media instead of doing their jobs of breaking up Al-Qaeda.
What a racist post. What inflammatory (whoops, sorry) suggestions. This is a country based on freedom to worship as we like. If someone’s deepest belief is that all infidels should be blown up for Allah, then we should allow them the freedom needed to express that. It’s just an alternate lifestyle. Remember that Muslims, Jihadists, Sympathizers, and Confused rich white kids have rights too. Years of repression have hurt those in the MJSC community and people like you need to back off. /s
It's not that hard to negotiate a permanent peace treaty with the Muslims. We've done it a bunch of times.
AQ is not as strong today as it was in 2001. That is utterly foolish. They have lost over 3/4 of their Sr. Leadership (mainly replaced with less effective....whom we've killed a sizable portion of those as well....only to be replaced with even less effective types).
They have lost their safe haven of Stan. They have been reduced to begging for protection in the Pak tribal regions. They are constantly on the run and constantly aware that U.S. boot may kick down their doors at any time.
Yes, AQ is still a threat. But they are not in the same position of strength (while NOT being hunted) that they were in 2001.
This pinheads opinion of a report that he isn't allowed to talk about is utter BS.
The report contradicts itself by claiming one unnamed source is paraphrasing from the conclusion but the other unnamed source claims it’s being finalized.
Really only one choice! I say, bomb the crap out of them. Which is what the we should have been doing since 9-12!
Geez...from your pic I’m guessing that Muzzie just got goosed by a camel. His mouth is bigger than the caves at Tora Bora.
These people are absolutely desperate to hit us but have been reduced to the sort of enthusiastic amateurs that carried out the recent bomb plots in the UK- Definitely radical Islam's B-team.
We have AQ and its allies under incredible pressure. We are fighting and killing them by the bushel full in their own homelands- Hanging on to what they got is the focus of their operations.
If we pull out of Iraq- and Afghanistan will go right down the same road within 6 months or a year if we do- they will soon be able to retrain and begin an absolute orgy of terrorism against targets in the west within a few years.
But not quite yet...
Pakistan is set to implode. Once it tips, India will kick a$$ as opposed to letting talibanani cavemen get control of the nuclear arsenal. Once Musharaff loses control/gets whacked, which is not far away, the gloves will come off.
Same with Iran/Syria. Excepting our Israeli friends are on the frontline. SO..the politics/resource calls and expectations will change.
Once Pakistan is spanked, HALF of the problem will go away. The other half lies in Iran/Syria.Once the JOOOS deal a nasty spanking,the dynamics will change.
Spank these places good, and the situation will clear
Iraq and Afghanistan will just fall into place.
This global aberation of cavemen philosophy should dry up.
Sure, they have 1400 years into this caveman cult crap...but face it - there is no room for that crap today.
It doesnt work - politically / economically
LLS
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
“The way I see it we’ve got two choices. Bomb the hell out of them or send in Reid, Edwards, Pelosi and Murtha to negotiate a peace treaty.”
Hi Jim... how long do you reckon it will take al qaeda to hit us after reid and peloser come out shaking their “peace treaty” in their hands and saying “Peace in our time”?
Maybe we just need to hold a series of music concerts worlwide... watcha think?
LLS
” to a level not seen since just before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks”
Ok, let’s compare, during the 1990s under Clinton THEY GREW IN SIZE TO UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS. Now, 6 years after 9/11, they might, according to some unknown source (think recent leak on Iraq benchmarks, none met), they are back to pre 9/11 levels.
So, even if true, that means in 6 yrs they remained at the same level net. Not optimal, but better than GAINING as they did in the past.
This will be spun against the WOT, the GOP et al better have a good response and note that breaking them up, even if they regroup, is better than letting them continue to grow unabated. Moreover, we can just chop the head off the serpent again if need be, and if the left wasn’t tying our hands.
Let the BUFs, B2s and F-117s loose. No ROE. Reminds me of Linebacker I & II in our little dustup in SEA.
Give Pelosi, Reid, Edwards and Murtha personal Iraq theater tours strapped to the bomb pylons of a F-16.
I doubt they’d come out with a piece of paper. Doubt they’d come out with their heads still attached. The point is, these guys don’t negotiate. They kill.
I call BS on this story.
I’m pretty sure I read here recently that some U. S, military officers in Iraq say that Al Quaeda is on the ropes in Iraq because of the surge.
I agree wholeheartedly with your tagline.
Amen... and there is NO DOUBT about that! I feel bad about feeling good about a mental picture of peloser and reid... head in hand so to speak. Bad LLS.
LLS
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