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To: Proud_USA_Republican
So far, however, change has proceeded at a faster pace than even pessimistic scientists predicted a few years ago.

You often see such flawed "logic" put forward by proponents of the humans-caused-the-global-warming scam, but in fact such observations pull the rug out from under their main argument. They have put all of their faith into dire predictions made by scientists, because the scientists' models and predictions portend a dire future.

When they say that climate change is proceeding even faster than even pessimistic scientists predicted a few years ago, they want us to conclude that therefore the situation should be treated with even more urgency than before.

However, a much more rational and intelligent way to interpret such "even greater than predicted" statements is to realize that they reveal the inconvenient truth that those scientists who made the original predictions have proven beyond a doubt the worthlessness of their own predictive powers.

The essence of real science is observing and analyzing a phenomenon, making hypotheses that may explain why the phenomenon occurs, and then devising tests or experiments that can generate unambiguous evidence that either supports or does not support those hypotheses. If the result of an experiment is "the result was much greater than we predicted", that is not a validation of the prediction. Rather, it is the opposite - it reveals that whatever mechanism may have been driving the results, that mechanism is not at all well understood by the person who made the prediction. It shows that the predictor's model or hypothisis is wrong, not that it is right...

Yet know-nothings like the author of this article would have us take the results of failed predictions as an urgent impetus to immediate action.

51 posted on 07/11/2007 9:00:45 AM PDT by The Electrician ("Government is the only enterprise in the world which expands in size when its failures increase.")
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To: The Electrician

The writer can do that and get accolades from the orthodoxy because this isn’t about science at all...not one bit. It’s about politics.


67 posted on 07/11/2007 8:59:50 PM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
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