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There's no way a guy who dressed up in drag and marched in a gay pride parade is ever going to become the GOP nominee. No way, no how.

So far Rudy has defied all expectations and continued to be the front runnner in what is most likely to be an unusual poltiical year due to the low approvals for Pres Bush and no 'incumbent'. Since Thompson has entered, Giuliani has indeed lost some support, as has McCain. But rudy's numbers appear to eb stabilizing (see poll chart below) I would say Rudy currently has a 50-50 shot at winning the nomination.

Here's my prediction: Rudy gets his head handed to him in Iowa and New Hampshire. From that point on he'll drop like a rock. National polls this early mean nothing.

Right now Rudy is second in Iowa and NH. National pools mean a lot as they directly influence fundraising. If you cant prove you can compete in the national election, you wont receive donations. Period. If Giuliani only wins some of the delegates in NH and IA, he will clean up in FL, SC, NJ, and CA. IA and NH are must wins for Romney and if he loses in those states its over for him.

Rudy's numbers are coming from his name recognition. Too few people are paying attention to the campaign, so they aren't aware of his negative qualities yet. They just remember him as the 9-11 mayor, and maybe they remember his speach at the RNC. When the negative ads start to fly, he'll be toast.

Yes, national polls influence fund raising, but not this late in the game. Everyone already knows who the top tier candidates are.

Right now Rudy is second in Iowa and NH.

Ghouliani isn't close in either state and that's why he is focusing on larger states that have later primaries. And, no Presidential candidate lost Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and won his party's nomination.

Recent polls have shown Giuliani trailing Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire.

"If they exceed expectations, all the better," said GOP consultant Tony Fabrizio. "If they don't, there is nothing lost, because they told everyone they weren't expecting to win anyway."

Political experts question the wisdom of such a strategy, wondering how a candidate who doesn't win or finish strongly in the early states can challenge someone else's momentum and recover on Feb. 5.