Posted on 07/05/2007 1:34:26 PM PDT by Reaganesque
A second New Hampshire poll in less than a month shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney pulling ahead of former front-runners John McCain and Rudy Giuliani and into first place in the leadoff Presidential primary campaign.
The American Research Group's June 27-30 poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters has Romney with the support of 27 percent of those surveyed, compared to 21 percent for McCain and 19 percent for Giuliani.
A month ago, the same poll showed Romney trailing McCain, 30 to 23 percent and in a virtual tie with Giuliani, who received the support of 21 percent.
The new poll also shows that among 600 likely Democratic primary voters, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to lead the Democratic pack with 34 percent, unchanged since May, but that Barack Obama has moved ahead of John Edwards and into second place, with the support 25 percent of those polled. Edwards was backed by 18 percent of those polled in May, while Obama in May was backed by 15 percent. The June poll shows Edwards at 15 percent.
Both party polls have margins of error of 4 percent.
In the new Republican poll, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson jumped from 3 percent in May to 10 percent, apparently taking support from McCain and Giuliani.
Thompson, who visited the state last week as the poll was being taken, is not yet a candidate, but has strongly hinted that he will run.
Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who is also not a candidate, drew 4 percent, the same percentage as in May, while Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, and Tom Tancredo received 1 percent each, and 14 percent were undecided.
Romney led among self-described Republicans with 29 percent, compared to 21 percent for Giuliani and 18 percent for McCain. Among independents, McCain led with 29 percent, while Romney followed with 22 percent and Giuliani 19 percent.
In the Democratic poll, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson headed the second tier with 6 percent, while Joe Biden received 4 percent, Dennis Kucinich received 3 percent, Mike Gravel received 2 percent, non-candidate Wesley Clark 1 percent, and 11 percent were undecided.
Clinton led among Democrats with 35 percent, compared to 25 percent for Obama and 11 percent for Edwards. She also led among independents, drawing 33 percent compared to 26 percent for Obama and 12 for Edwards.
Romney's growing strength in New Hampshire was first indicated in mid-June, when a poll conducted by UNH for CNN and WMUR showed him pulling into the GOP lead, with 28 percent, compared to 20 percent for Giuliani and 20 percent for McCain.
The UNH Democratic poll had Clinton leading Obama, 36 to 22 percent, with Edwards at 12 percent.
Is Fred ahead anywhere? or was that just wishful thinking?
Which Mitt is doing well? The conservative sounding Mitt or the liberal one?
How can you trust what he says? He obviously will say anything to win. He’s like Bill Clinton minus the sex scandals.
When Mitt is ahead in any of the big delegate states (CA, TX, FL, NY) let me know.
Fred is now leading in NC, SC, and Fla. I think in Ga also. He is #2 in a number of other states.
Don’t rain on their parade.
New Hampshire will probably move their primary to December. With the inevitable Romney win there he will have weeks press coverage portraying him as the winner and the others as losers. Then we will have Iowa where he also is ahead. Another win likely and another few weeks of Romney = winner, others = losers. By the time we get to Super-Tuesday this thing will be over.
By those standards you might as well hand the nomination to Giuliani, though there was a poll a few weeks ago with Romney ahead in California.
By the end of January, he will be ahead or very close in all of them. Mark my words.
Fred is not leading in either FL or SC:
National - Giuliani + 7.5
Iowa - Romney + 8.3
New Hampshire - Romney + 7.0
South Carolina - Giuliani + 4.2
Florida - Giuliani + 11.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com
I’ll take your word about the other states you mentioned because I haven’t seen those polls.
Yes, the same “poll” showing Hunter in 3rd place in CA.
Oh I will :-)
Hope you won't forget mine either.
It was a poll as good as any other. The Rasmussen poll that shows Fred Thompson ahead nationally goes against 5 other national polls that show him in the 15% range. Take away the Rasmussen poll and I haven’t seen Fred ahead anywhere. sorry. So much for niche players..
Thank you for correcting me. I was wrong about Fla. but Mason-Dixon has him ahead in the other states.
The only candidates whose numbers changed since May have been McCain and Thompson, mostly due to immigration and Fred’s coming out party. The numbers have been flat because its Summer and nobody cares about an election that is over a year away. All that matters is money, organization, and early Primary campaign appearances. Mitt has the right strategy. He was to win in New Hampshire and Iowa and finish 2nd in South Carolina. Then he will have some major momentum.
Sure, but Romney is running 4th nationally, and if he doesent win both those states he's so over. There's a chance those wins will kick him up nationally, but if he loses he gets to go home .
IMO, by March it'll be Thompson vs Guliani. Unless I'm wrong, of course.
Whether that's actually true or not, we shall see. But it does indicate that he is doing very well there.
(Will start paying attention many months from now...)
There’s no way on earth that’s an accurate sampling. Nothing against Romney at all, but this is California we’re talking about.
The wild disparity in poll results tells me a lot about the sampling size, time of day polled, sample pool, etc.
Believe what you will but it’s fairly worthless. He may get 3rd with Fred in the race, but it’s a winner-take-all state.
Exactly why should anyone weep? I thought we were all on the same team here. And Romney and Thompson are the two most competent politicians running on a conservative plank in this race.
So no, I’m not going to weep. And I’m going to question the motives of anyone who does or who demands others do.
I like Thompson personally, but for our next President, I prefer someone with Executive experience. I’d prefer a Governor over a Senator.
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