Posted on 06/19/2007 6:52:38 AM PDT by Neville72
There’s change at the top in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson earning support from 28% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani attracts support from 27%. While Thompson’s one-point edge is statistically insignificant, it is the first time all year that anybody but Giuliani has been on top in Rasmussen Reports polling. A week ago, Thompson and Giuliani were tied at 24%.
It remains an open question as to how Thompson will hold up once he actually enters the campaign and has to compete directly with other candidates. To date, he retains the allure of the new kid in town while GOP voters already know the things they don’t like about the others. Still, Thompson’s rise to the top provides a telling measure of how the other GOP hopefuls have failed to capture the imagination of the party they hope to lead.
Once gain this week, Arizona Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are tied for a distant third. This week, both men attract 10% support. Last week, they were both at the 11% level of support. For McCain, this is a continuation of a downward trend. For Romney, it reflects a fairly steady position. Romney is doing well in selected state polls but has been unable to gain much traction and expand his support nationwide.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback are each the top choice for 2% of the likely voters.
The combined total for five other candidates in the race is just under 3%. Those candidates are Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore. Eighteen percent (18%) say they’re not sure how they will vote.
This is the first Rasmussen Reports poll to exclude former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as a candidate. Gingrich earned 7% support in last week’s polling but has recently made statements indicating he is not likely to enter the 2008 race as candidate.
Giuliani remains the most well-liked candidate in either party. He is viewed favorably by 82% of Republicans nationwide and unfavorably by 15%. Thompson, not as well known, is the only other candidate with so few Republicans holding an unfavorable opinion of him. The actor turned Senator turned actor again is viewed favorably by 59% of Republicans and unfavorably by 14%.
Among Republicans, Romney and McCain both have lower favorables and higher unfavorables than the frontrunners. For Romney, those GOP numbers are 56% favorable and 28% unfavorable. McCain, among the nation’s best known political figures, is viewed favorably by 55% of Republicans and unfavorably by 40%.
While Giuliani is well liked, only 21% of Republicans view him as politically conservative. Twice as many, 42%, believe that Thompson is politically conservative.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Republican nominating contest every Tuesday. Results for the Democrats are updated on Mondays. The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 618 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted June 11-14, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.
In some states, independent voters are allowed to participate in Republican primaries. In others, only Republicans can participate. Among Republicans only in the current poll, it’s Thompson 29% Giuliani 24% Romney 11% and McCain 10%.
McCain’s recent decline in the polls has been tied closely to his support for the unpopular immigration reform bill. A Rasmussen Reports analysis of what happened to the McCain campaign noted that the man once considered a maverick is now the candidate most closely aligned with President Bush on two hot-button issues—the War in Iraq and immigration. That linkage is problematic when just 27% of voters nationwide say the President is doing a good or excellent job handling the situation in Iraq and only 15% give him favorable reviews on the immigration issue.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Also regularly updated are favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists along with public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics.
I have been to Daily KOS. I read it every day. I like to read all sides. And I find that the Left doesn’t have any more fear of Fred Thompson than they do of Rudy Giuliani. You guys see someone that can articulate himself well. i see a babbling old, tired man that can’t inspire without prepared scripts. You see someone that rallies the conservative base. I see someone that is wishy washy on abortion. I don’t like abortion but the fact that Hannity had to save his ass will probably bother those single issue voters that really do care about it.
I do remember 2000. I remember that the conservatives lined up behind Bush because McCain was playing popularity contest with the media. And I remember that until the DUI story broke (Because Bush didn’t let it out sooner) it almost sunk him. The conservative coalition that allowed Bush to win in 2004 is fractured. Even in ‘04, when everyone was on board, this coalition was enough to let the president win by only 3 points. Now the war has gone south and there is nowhere near the enthusiasm there was in 2004. We’re not going to win in ‘08 unless we reach out to the center. I don’t necessarily like it but its true.
If that’s what the electorate wants, then the electorate is stupid and we’re doomed as a nation.
And yet you're pimping Giuliani?? Boy that's like dumping your girlfriend because she doesn't put out, then dating a nun.
Oh, this is just the beginning. Things are really going to heat up around here in coming months. The announced candidates made a mistake of entering the race far too early (that is true of both sides). It's given opponents on both sides way too much time to get ammunition against them, and Fred's non-candidacy candidacy has proven very effective. They don't know how to handle it, and their minions are becoming scared.
It's rather fun to watch. The more they come out of the woodwork, the more Fred is showing his effectiveness.
That's a possibility, yes.
According to them, he’s as good as dead. Yet the lisping one is the energizer bunny, if I recall the 3rd wife’s comment
Yup. If you're taking fire, you're over the target.
Maybe that's why we don't see hit pieces on Brownback or Huckabee?
I don’t like abortion but it ranks low on my list of priorities. I brought it up because Thompson won’t appeal to the center like Giuliani will, so he’ll need ALL of the Christian Right. He’s made wishy washy statements and he can’t afford anyone to stay home. He certainly doesn’t seem to be the poster boy for those voters who want to change abortion laws.
No, the Dems don’t fear Fred. Not at all...they just send out mailings like this for kicks:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1852825/posts
oh get this.. HE’S CURED. rudy is cured. read that myself. apparently cancer is only deadly when affecting those whom they do not favor for the nomination.
Most people don’t even know who is running at this point. When the voting public learns the truth about rudi, he won’t appeal to anyone but a few liberal new yorkers and the rinos working for his campaign.
Bull. Republicans win when they run as conservatives. They lose when they run as wishy-washy Democrat-lite moderates.
In 2008, this will be more true than ever, as the public has (and rightfully so) full disgust at both parties. It's going to take someone with conviction to bring voters around, and moderates don't have conviction.
Oh? Take a look at the effect Conservatives have had on the immigration issue these past few weeks. Take an honest look at Fred Thompson's poll numbers, gained while not even being an announced candidate. You say the Conservative coalition is fractured? I beg to differ with you. Your problem is it isn't lining up for your chosen candidate. That's not fractured; that's smart.
P.S. I'm still waiting for a response to my post #30.
What we need is a real conservative, who can communicate conservative values in a non-threatening common sense way.
That man in 1980 was Ronald Reagan. In 2008, it will be Fred Thompson.
Surprise surprise.
"And I find that the Left doesn’t have any more fear of Fred Thompson than they do of Rudy Giuliani.
Then, your reading comprehension skills are sorely lacking.
You guys see someone that can articulate himself well. i see a babbling old, tired man that can’t inspire without prepared scripts.
Because you're not looking and not paying attention. Either that or you're a campaign operative. Either way, you're seriously in the minority on that.
I see someone that is wishy washy on abortion.
So, you prefer the all out pro-choice Rudy G, eh? That totally makes sense, considering you're a Kos Kid. And Hannity didn't have to save anything.
Fred Thompson, wishy washy on abortion...ROFL...that's rich. That's why he has a 100% pro-life voting record and got a standing ovation from the National Right to Life Conference with This Video
We’re not going to win in ‘08 unless we reach out to the center. I don’t necessarily like it but its true.
Fred Thompson does that without alienating the base, which is something that NO other candidate can say.
Great news! Now maybe someone will cure his liberal views and lack of moral conviction
Yet you're a Rudy fan? How does that make any sense?
Now the war has gone south and there is nowhere near the enthusiasm there was in 2004. We’re not going to win in ‘08 unless we reach out to the center.
So, again, your theory is that the war has lost us voters - and so you support the candidate most identified with supporting the war? Great logic, buddy. LOL...
And they'll both be fighting over who will enlist Duncan Hunter as the VP.
Then get used to the Clintons cause Rootie won't beat them.
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