Posted on 06/14/2007 6:16:04 AM PDT by radar101
Yesterday, a GOP aide, who is one of my sources in the Senate, gave me the rundown on what's happening with the Senate immigration bill (this is the same person who I talked to last week about the bill).
First off, it does look like the Senate immigration bill is coming back. The conventional wisdom seems to be that it's going to be brought up right before the July 4th break, so that the Senate Republican leadership can try to use that as leverage to get votes (in other words, "vote for the bill or we'll have to waste your vacation time until you do").
This is despite the fact that the conservative leaders of the anti-amnesty movement are refusing to cooperate, and won't give Mitch McConnell a list of amendments that they want considered. My source tells me that the reason for this is that the game has now been rigged. McConnell is essentially promising to bring the amendments up in exchange for cloture votes, but he's publicly saying that they will strip any problematic amendments out in committee.
In other words, if the bill gets through the Senate and the House, the Democrats and the open borders Republicans will work together when the bills have to be reconciled in committee to strip out any amendments that the "grand bargainers" don't like. Therefore, at this point, it doesn't matter what amendments pass, because any tough enforcement provisions that slip through will be rendered toothless when the bills are reconciled.
My source also noted that the cloture vote to end debate will be the "real" vote on the bill because if debate is closed off, the bill is sure to pass. Then, what will happen is that the votes for the bill will be counted, and a few Senators who are afraid that their election prospects will be jeopardized by a "yes" vote, will be allowed to vote against the bill. This enables those Senators to tell their constituents that they voted against the bill, but it will still allow them to collect campaign contributions from lobbyists who have a better understanding of how things work, and know that the bill couldn't have been passed without their support. Put another way, they get to reap the rewards of supporting amnesty while telling the voters in their home states that they opposed the bill.
My source also let me know that the White House and the Senate leadership, and Trent Lott in particular, are pushing very hard for this bill.
I asked my source to speculate on why Lott was pushing so hard, and he said that Lott may be naive enough to think that this bill might help John McCain's presidential campaign. He told me that despite McCain's dip in the polls since the bill hit the news, it was hard to miss the fact that the biggest supporters of this bill in the Senate, Jon Kyl, Trent Lott, and Lindsey Graham, are all solidly behind McCain in '08.
Before we finished up, I asked my source what he thought the prospects of passage were. He stated that it was a toss up, but that the pro-amnesty side had the momentum. I asked how that could possibly be given the outpouring of anger against this bill, and he told me that a lot of moderates were afraid of being called racists by people like Michael Chertoff, Luis Gutierrez, and Fred Barnes. He also noted that the Senate has a very insulated, clubhouse like atmosphere, and that a lot of these pro-amnesty Senators seem to be more worried about getting the President or Trent Lott mad at them than enraging the voters in their states. In addition, he told me that he thinks a lot of these Senators have "drunk the DC Kool-Aid", and believe that they're better off passing a bad bill, even one that won't ultimately become law if, as expected, the House kills it, so that they can at least tell the voters in 2008 that they did something about immigration.
PS #1: I asked my source what his boss thought the fallout from this bill would be. He advised me that his boss, and some of his boss's conservative colleagues in the Senate, believe that this bill could gin up so much outrage on the right that it could lead to the GOP having an even worse year in 2008 than they did in 2006. As is, conservatives are disillusioned and unmotivated, and he thinks this bill will make things much worse if it passes the Senate.
PS #2: Another question I had for my source was whether he thought Harry Reid wanted this bill to pass. He replied that he thought Rush Limbaugh was right, and that Harry Reid would prefer to see this bill go away. As evidence for that, he pointed to Reid bringing Byron Dorgan's killer Amendment back three times. He also said that if Reid had really wanted the bill to pass, he would have kept it on the floor for another 2-3 days. At this point though, he said that Reid is probably content to let it come back because after the President's high profile lobbying, he can pin the blame for the bill on Republicans.
Have the politicians in Washington gone out of their ever living minds.
This worse than Jimmy Carters Panama Canal treaty and his deal with the Chinese Communist.
Thanks for that well reasoned reply. Something that still bothers me was George Allen losing who always was standing with Inhofe and Coburn. Note the ones that were defeated were ones opposing this bill.
Have had a bad feeling ever since the election that there was something really wrong and now it has come home to roost. Bush wasn’t kidding when Tony Snow went running out on election night to congratulate the Dems and talk about working with them on Immigration. I have been disgusted ever since.
NRSC was inept in the last election and NRCC wasn’t much better and forget the RNC — why? How could well oiled machines be so inept not to spot major problems in States and get last minute money and push into those states and save a few seats.
Note: Frist was leaving as Majority Leader and Hastert looked the other way on Jefferson and Foley until he finally resigned late into the election cycle — too late to help. Bush gets rid of Rumsfeld right after the election. Frist twisted arms to get Lott as #2 — this whole thing smells big time.
Now we find out this bill is full of loopholes? If Allen and Burns had not lost, this bill would not be going anywhere.
I don't know. Keep putting one foot in front of the other, do what what we've been doing. Hope that America will wake up.
And semi-seriously, consider buying a property abroad. Demographic jui-jitsu. Use migration against them. Uraguay is nice.
Maybe that's a discussion for a later thread, it's way too early to give up. But maybe not to be prudent.
Roccus, when to start?
Note the date of this post.
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Sad really. I feel for you young folks and those of you with kids. America is entering its own Dark Age.
199 posted on 11/09/2006 12:39:11 PM EST by Roccus (Dealing with Politicians IS the War on Terror.)
Who is making that assumption?
I don't know if it's possible....but millions of Americans in the streets of DC sounds like a good idea to me....or like Roccus suggestion....tens of thousands at each state capital.
Good idea, but you need people to educate the American public and organize such rallies. We need some national figures and organizations to get involved.
You are too kind.
Yet, we can still pray, and He may yet have mercy.
In the Bible, Niniveh was an evil city....extremely so.
But God spared Niniveh-(for a time)- when the king and people repented.
It was eventually destroyed.
However, the United States has looked the other way while the blood of 50 million unborn babies was shed.
Maybe this is His judgement.
But we can still pray.
He has mercy on whom he has mercy.
Well that's the critical issue and the one I'm most concerned about. America needs to wake up to the impending disaster and the ruination of American culture.
It's already clear that this is an a-partisan, a-political issue (I heard even DU was ranting against it). So it really depends on help from our fellow citizens.
I have to say that during the Clinton years I put my every fiber into this kind of "activism." We even got an ear in the Senate and an actual bill as the result of the FBI files. But it all fell on the clogged ears of the American public and I finally left the country for a couple years.
It was a good thing to do at the time.
Personally I'll just keep working on it until I run out of steam. What else can we do?
Screw parties, this is about the United States.
I can’t disagree with you BUMP!
YUP!
That’s exactly what I am hearing as well from some staffers I know. Comments made by Sen Inhofe are beginning to make sense. I think Sessions nailed it completely about what has been happening.
Don’t want to see or hear Frist again ever. Too close to the WH, Rove, and the Dems for me.
Someone questioned my turning on Pres Bush the other day in Freep Mail. Excuse me but every Republican that worked for the Bush election in 2000 and 2004 should be mad and making no excuses for this travesty that will lessen our security not increase it. I find out from a source that Rove is really twisting arms to get this passed and I am even more mad.
People better take a hard look at every last campaign no matter what they say and see who is working for them. We cannot afford to have Rove and his Bush buddies near the WH again IMHO. That is said by a long time Bush supporter going back to 1994. IOTW, forget the rhetoric and see who is pulling the strings. Look at every Senate and House race as well to see who is pulling the strings for the campaign.
We have just had cold water thrown on all of us that this President and Rove who will do anything to get this bill passed. We have to be prepared if it passes the Senate to put intense pressure on the House to kill this bill.
I saw the look on Kay Bailey’s face when Bush spoke and she was not happy. She had no choice but to escort him as the ranking TX Senator but you could tell she was disgusted.
I have stopped all monthly donations to NRSC, NRCC, and RNC and they will not see a penny for sometime to come. In one case I had to change checking accounts to get it to stop. My money goes to Jim Inhofe’s reelection campaign along with my hours to help him get reelected.
I have often wondered about this. I have also heard historians make similar analogies of past civilizations.
There will be market demand from both sides. Not only legalization processes for our newest "citizens", but asset protection, emigration services & regional planning for the losers.
All one has to do is visit any major city in Latin America to see what's in store for us. Note the gated neighborhoods, high walls & razor wire, private guards, etc. There will be big bucks in developing regional planning guides as cities & neighborhoods investigate ways in which to prevent block busting.
For the 4th time in GWB's presidency!
I think this is unprecedented in American history, but I could be wrong.
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