Posted on 06/11/2007 11:34:03 AM PDT by conservativecorner
Success in politics depends on the ability of a candidate or a party to forge and maintain coalitions. One of the most successful coalitions in modern political history has been the "Reagan Coalition", which brought together economic and social conservatives under the umbrella of the Republican Party. Preserving that coalition brought the Republicans great success, including occupancy of the White House and twelve years of control over the House of Representatives. The coalition that Reagan fashioned is fraying, however, and is on the verge of unraveling. The causes are many, but the coup de grace is likely to be the current controversy over immigration.
At first blush, the union of economic and social conservatives seems an odd one. The most influential among the economic conservatives are the "blue bloods". They are fiscally conservative, but often socially liberal. They enjoy the trappings of money and power and see politics as a means of increasing both. Consequently, they invest in political campaigns as a "cost of doing business", expecting that if they ride the right horse across the finish line, they will get a "return on investment" which usually comes in the form of tax breaks, financial subsidies, or limited accountability for their misconduct. Cash is the currency of the rich and powerful, and they do not hesitate to invest it in political campaigns. Financial concerns are at the top of their list.
By contrast, social conservatives are animated into political engagement out of concern about the direction in which the country is moving. They are often both socially and theologically conservative. They believe the country is on the wrong track and are disturbed by what they regard as the unraveling of the social fabric and the breakdown of the social order. The prevalence of abortions, the decline of marriage, the secularization of the culture—all are indications to social conservatives of a society on a downhill trajectory. They engage in politics in an attempt to bring about a "course correction" for the country. Lacking the financial means to make significant monetary contributions to political campaigns, they invest sweat and shoe leather. They are the sign-planting, precinct-walking, phone-banking "worker bees" of the party. They are best known as the Republican "base", but are derisively referred to as "blue collars" by many of the Republican elites who tolerate their social agenda with sniffing disdain.
Despite obvious differences between the two camps, Ronald Reagan forged a coalition of economic and social conservatives by reaching out to both. Under his leadership, the Republican Party crafted an agenda that appealed to both groups. Lower taxes, less government, and freer markets coupled with a commitment to the sanctity of life and the primacy of the family produced a winning combination in the political arena. A strong defense and a strong commitment to traditional values helped provide the glue that kept the coalition together. Mr. Reagan's dignity and essential decency appealed to all. He made the CEO and the factory worker feel equally comfortable in his presence.
But that was then and this is now. Ronald Reagan has passed from the scene and while many claim to be heirs of the Reagan legacy, neither the Republican Party nor the current crop of Republican leaders have demonstrated that they have the DNA that authenticates their claims.
Evidence of the unraveling of the coalition that Reagan built became manifest in the Congressional elections of 2006. Republicans, firmly in control of the White House and both houses of Congress, had spent money like drunken sailors. Under Mr. Bush, government began to occupy an ever expanding role. "No child left behind" provided a bigger platform than ever for the federal Department of Education. The prescription drug bill leveraged government spending so much that Democrats were envious that it was a Republican sponsored program. Big drug companies were huge beneficiaries of the boondoggle. The Patriot Act provided an unprecedented level of government intrusion into the lives of Americans. Mr. Bush sought to dismantle the civil justice system by reducing accountability for negligent and reckless conduct by business interests. Decrying affirmative action for racial groups as a legitimate policy goal on one hand, he, nevertheless, embraced affirmative action for corporate wrongdoers with the other. Meanwhile, Republican leaders became so entwined with business interests that their lifestyles (funded by lobbyists with the largesse of blue bloods) began to rival that of European royalty. And the party of family values and moral principle became stained by sexual scandal. As a result, members of the coalition deserted the Republican Party in droves in 2006.
In the aftermath of the election, misconduct in the Gonzalez Justice Department has given rise to the Republicans' own "Monica" whose behavior (while radically different in kind from that of Miss Lewinsky), was nevertheless so troubling that her lawyers had her invoke the Fifth Amendment until they struck a bargain granting her immunity from prosecution. Paul Wolfowitz has been defrocked as President of the World Bank because he gave preferential treatment to his girlfriend and Scooter Libby has been sentenced to prison for lying about his role in the outing of CIA Agent Valerie Plame.
Enter Immigration. After years of failing to secure our borders and casting a blind eye to the practices of businesses' hiring of illegal immigrants, the problem of illegal immigration has become a problem of gargantuan proportions—so much so that there are no solutions that are not painful. While there are obvious national security issues inherent in the problem, it is the social and economic dimensions that threaten to end the Reagan coalition. The Republican base sees the solutions being offered by Mr. Bush and the Republicans as the final "sell out" of the party to big money interests. Blue collar workers have felt the pinch caused by illegal immigration perhaps more than anyone else. Cheap labor provided by illegals has artificially suppressed wages and deprived American workers of jobs in the marketplace. Meanwhile, businesses that hire illegals have flourished as a result of low labor costs. Lax law enforcement against businesses which violate the immigration laws have convinced domestic workers that the government is on the side of business. Already bending under the strain of low wages, these workers resent the additional taxes they have to pay because of the additional demand illegal immigrants are placing on the infrastructure of their communities—schools, day care centers and hospitals.
The Republican base also worries about the fact that illegals do not assimilate into society. Social conservatives see language as a unifying element in society and they worry that the failure of immigrants to learn the national language will lead to the Balkanization of the country. Additionally, the base resents what they regard as "amnesty" for wrongdoers. They don't like the idea of wrongdoers getting preferential treatment. They think that if people break the law, they should have to pay the price. Having heard their law and order candidates utter the mantra, "If you do the crime, you have to do the time" over and over again, they have come to believe it.
Republican blue bloods, on the other hand, have been largely bemused at the reaction of the base to the immigration debacle. They don't understand what the fuss is all about. Putting profits over people is a concept they are comfortable with. They have been doing it in their businesses for years. They aren't impacted in the same way as the base by the tax burden associated with immigration. After all, they have tax advisors and accountants who get paid to find loopholes. Jobs? They don't need them, they provide them. And if they can get a lower wage worker to fill them, that just means more money going to the bottom line. Preferential treatment? They are accustomed to getting it for themselves and their designees. Social implications? They don't worry about them. In the circles in which they move, they aren't exposed to an underclass. Common language? Among the elites, cash is the universal language, and if a foreign language is spoken, it is usually French, not Spanish.
Though these characterizations of the two wings of the Republican Party may seem extreme, they accurately depict the perceptions that each camp has of the other and the impact that each perceives illegal immigration has on themselves and the other. They also reflect the perception that the base currently has of the Party leadership and its response to their perceived problems. While some may want to argue about the legitimacy of their perceptions, Republican leaders would do well to remember that in politics, perception is reality. If the Republican leadership is going to solve the immigration problem without committing political suicide, they better take into account perception and reality. Otherwise, they may soon be left with no one to lead.
see tagline..
If the Dems don’t win the White House next year they never will win it again.
Really? Can you tell me what the MegaMillions numbers are for tomorrow or Friday?
It’s also difficult to demand respect from your base, when you show your base no respect. Especially after they helped elect the guy twice. I can assure you that if GWB were up for reelection, I would be seeking another party.
Cheney has a chance now to save this country. If he takes over and builds the fence, wins the Iraq war and smashes Iran, he could be President for 8 years.
Bush needs to be removed from office by the VP.
Conservatives should toss the RINO leadership from OUR party.
In view of 06 and 08, with Bush pushing on amnestry at key points in time, Bush is the Dem’s best friend.
I agree completely.
The “Reagan Coalition” - dead since ‘91-’92.
All your base are belong to someone else
If you look at the recent past, I can’t agree. We did well in 2002 and had a historic win in 2004. We controlled the Presidency, House and Senate. Morality was the number one issue according to exit polling in 2004. How we got to this sorry state in a span of 2 years is nothing other than a dereliction of duty by the President and our Congressional leaders.
This worker bee has left the hive!
Following what exactly? Please spell it out for the poor fools not nearly as wise as you.
Ed Rollins was on Lou Dobbs last week, he said he had flashbacks to when the promising breaking lying elitist elder Bush broke his read my lips pledge. He said small donors disappeared after that just like they are under Jorge’s push on amnesty. The small donors may not give the big bucks that NWO corporations do, but the small donors represent lots of votes as well. The son like the father ending his term in office spitting on those who elected and supported him.
I'm not so sure. The Dems were planning on running their presidential campaign with the saddling of whoever the Republican candidate was with Bush, whose popularity will probably be in the single digits by election time. The amnesty bill has forced most of the Republican contenders to move sharply away from Bush. If they are smart, by election time the Republican candidate will have moved so far away from Bush that the Democrats will be unable to use support of Bush in their campaign.
Bush, inadvertently, has not only galvanized the base but has helped to start a coalition, based on anti-amnesty anger, that includes Independents and "Reagan Democrats". If this coalition can be nurtured by a perceptive candidate, the Democrats will be in trouble come election time.
I’m with you in spirit but it’s more comlicated this slide....
Reagan gave us an amnesty too...as have many others
what is bad this time is the magnitude...this threatens to make the US majority hispanic in short order...let’s make no pretense otherwise...that is as much the argument as secure borders for defense
Bush has really jumped the shark on so many issues now, it’s sorta snowballed.
The first few things I tried to ignore....AWB...CFR...
but...I blame politcal correctness over any issue involving non-whites...non-Christians....the folks that founded our culture here are now the object of derision for their religion and race
that is what drives our inability to deal with war and immigration and most domestic issues...fear of being called bad names....like bigot, racist, xenophobe
Bush has choosen Big Business in this fight at his own peril. He will NOT succeed with this amnesty garbage at the expense of middle America!
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