>>How do you know he can win? Polls mean very little right now. He was a mayor. That in no way proves he can win a nationwide election.
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I’ve been looking for a site with historical polling data from election years. My recollection is that at least half the time the early front runner does not get th nomination.
“I’ve been looking for a site with historical polling data from election years. My recollection is that at least half the time the early front runner does not get th nomination.”
How Reliable Are the Early Presidential Polls?
by Nilanthi Samaranayake and Scott Keeter
February 14, 2007
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/410/how-reliable-are-the-early-presidential-polls