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Surge strategist Frederick Kagan on how events are unfolding in Iraq.
Hugh Hewitt show ^ | 4/25/07 | Frederick Kagan / Hugh Hewitt
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1823696/posts

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HH: Now if you can give us the summary before I get to the specifics, has there in the 100 days since President Bush announced the plan, which is not yet even fully staffed, or even half staffed with the five brigades, et cetera, is there a change in the wind?

FK: There sure is. There are a lot of changes underway. One of the most remarkable things is that sectarian violence in Baghdad dropped almost immediately after the President announced the surge, and has stayed down. And in fact, the command in Iraq has recently announced that the daily murder rate in Baghdad is the lowest it’s been in six months, and it’s down 65% since November. And that’s a really dramatic accomplishment this early into the surge. Probably even more important than that, and this is something that goes back even before the surge, is that the Sunni population in Iraq is really beginning to turn on al Qaeda, and Anbar, which had been their base and stronghold, it’s becoming inhospitable to them, and the Sunnis are joining the police forces and the army, and are starting to attack and kill the terrorists. And that’s an incredibly important development.

HH: Now you were in Iraq along with two other astute observers of the conflict, Reuel Marc Gerecht and Max Boot. Did you guys travel together?

FK: I don’t know that Reuel was there. I don’t know about his travel. Max and I were traveling around for the part that I was there.

HH: And so, when you were talking to each other, were the officers and the strategists that you were dealing with, representing coalition forces, optimistic about this mission?

FK: I think that most of the people that I spoke to were very much in a problem-solving mode. They…we all see the challenges, we all see the problems, but we’re working on finding solutions, and I think people over there are feeling like they are coming up with solutions to a lot of these problems. And that was…so there was a very determined sense that these were problems that we just needed to find solutions that we needed to keep working on.

HH: Now you mentioned in your piece that there is this dual command structure, and the Iraqi equivalent of General Odierno is a fellow by the name of Gambar, is that correct?

FK: Abboud Gambar, yeah.

HH: Tell us about him. It’s the first time I’ve seen his name, and I’ve been waiting to see names attached to senior Iraqi military leadership for a long time.

FK: Well, he’s the guy that Malaki picked, because Malaki trusted him to be the guy who coordinates all of the Iraqi security efforts in the Baghdad plan. He is, I believe, a Shia, he is someone in whom Malaki has a lot of confidence, and he has been very good. He’s been very tough, and he has been pressing both against Sunni terrorists and against Shia militias in Baghdad in a very positive way.

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