Giuliani Is the GOP's Only Hope
No, there is another!
Posted on 04/17/2007 12:22:58 PM PDT by pissant
The conventional wisdom about presidential nomination campaigns is almost always wrong. And the pundits' dismissal of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani's bid for the Republican nomination will not improve their batting average. Even though Giuliani is way ahead of everybody in early primary polls, the experts are already writing Giuliani's obituary.
Some of this spin is wishful thinking by Democrats who don't want to face him in the general election. Other than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), he is better known and more popular than anyone running for president, even Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). And Giuliani has a better chance than any other GOP candidate to turn blue states red. Depending on the Democratic presidential nominee, he could put into play states like New York, New Jersey and California that are normally off-limits to Republicans.
The rap on Giuliani is that he is a great prospect for winning the general election but has almost no chance to win the GOP nod because of his personal history and his stands on issues such as gun control and gay marriage. But there are at least a couple of reasons why he could go all the way and come out of the Republican National Convention in Minnesota as king of the hill.
First, GOP primary voters, especially born-again Christians, are so horrified at the prospect of Clinton becoming president that they would nominate the devil if they thought it would keep her out of the White House. The stronger Clinton becomes in her bid for the Democratic nomination, the better Giuliani will look to the religious fundamentalists on the Republican side who descend on the Iowa caucuses by the busload.
In backing the most electable candidate, Republican voters would be following a long history of calculation and pragmatic voting in presidential primary campaigns. In 2004, Democrats were so eager to block the reelection of President Bush that they voted with their heads for Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), rather than with their hearts for former Vermont governor Howard Dean.
We may finally get the dream race that everybody wanted in 2000, when then-mayor Giuliani was ready to run against then-first lady Clinton for the U.S. Senate in New York, until fate and the mayor's former wife Donna Hanover intervened.
The other factor that could propel Giuliani to victory in the Republican race is that voters, even primary voters, care more about qualities like leadership and strength than they do about the positions the candidates take on issues. In this context, the reputation for strength that Giuliani built after the Sept. 11 attacks should serve him well in his campaign to win the approval of GOP voters.
To the extent that any single issue will be a factor in voting decisions, national security will trump anything else. No Republican candidate projects the strength that a president needs to stand up to the bad guys like the one who claims that he rid New York City of thugs and saved the city from ruin on the worst day of its proud history.
As Giuliani prepares to officially announce his candidacy, he appears to be softening his position on gays and guns to appeal to the born-again Christian wing of the GOP. He said recently that gun control was good for New York City but might not work nationally. Despite his friendships with gay couples, Giuliani also announced that he was opposed to same-sex marriage. But fudging the issues is a mistake for Giuliani, because renouncing long-held beliefs undermines the reputation he has for strength and integrity.
Democratic activists are afraid of Giuliani, and Republican diehards fear him, as well. But the Bush presidency is slowly sinking into the sunset and Giuliani is the GOP's best bet to hang on to the White House.
(Brad Bannon is president of Bannon Communications Research, a Democratic polling firm in Washington).
You are just a little too well informed. You’re scaring me. :)
Yeah. If the GOP goes the way of Democrat-Lite, it’s all over for them. I will vote Constitution Party, or some such. Christians will stay home, and we will have four years of Hilary.
Or, we can nominate a conservative and win...it’s our choice.
I really believe that the times we live in require a tough leader like Rudy.
Fine. Rudy will lose and Hil will be in the WH. Two NY liberals on the ticket, and conservatives couldn't care less about either, that's a fact jack....
Your tagline says it all!!! The last thing in the world we need is a liberal,,,yes LIBERAL ‘attack dog’,,,as head of the Party and country!!
Or, we can nominate a conservative and win...it’s our choice?
Just what conservative can win?
Giuliani Is the GOP's Only Hope
No, there is another!
Rush was asking his listeners today if they felt desensitized regarding the killings yesterday.
At first I felt sad but, not the way I thought I should have and wondered why. I couldn't even shed a tear.
Rush said the immediate *politicalization* of the event caused people to be less sad or upset than they would normally be.
I guess after 9-11 and the wars, We're all a little less sensitive.
Well, you totally skirted the question and fell back to one of Rudy's talking points. So either you have no principles in life other than winning at all costs, or you are willing to compromise anything in order to win.
In the real world an honest person will give a direct answer to a reasonable question. Your refusal to answer is very telling.
In backing the most electable candidate, Republican voters would be following a long history of calculation and pragmatic voting in presidential primary campaigns. In 2004, Democrats were so eager to block the reelection of President Bush that they voted with their heads for Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), rather than with their hearts for former Vermont governor Howard Dean.
Oh yeah. Wisdom for the ages right there!
“Not a good time.”
If We let Rudy and his anti-second amend actions into the WH, there will be many more of these ‘not good times’.
"So, it was our Republican Party that gave me a political home. When I signed up for duty, I didn't have to check my principles at the door. And I soon found out that the desire for victory did not overcome our devotion to ideals".
--Ronald Reagan remarks at the Republican National Convention in New Orleans, August 15, 1988.
What “principles” are you talking about? I am a fiscal conservative, and a social moderate, just like Rudy.
No Republican will win the POTUS general election without much of the moderate vote and a lot of disaffected democrats as well.
Have you ever been to a church?
I’ll probably vote the same way as you. In 2004, I voted for the Constitution Party candidate, Michael Peroutka, because I thought that Bush was too liberal and because I predicted that Kerry would win 57% of the vote in my state, Illinois. Kerry got 57% of the vote in IL.
Liberals like you and Rudy have made Republicanism unpalatable to a large number of conservative independents and Reagan Democrats, and your kind needs to be put away as soon as possible before you do any more damage.
Abortion is here to stay, unfortunately. It should be a state’s rights issue, the states that don’t want it can outlaw it, and the states that want it can make it legal.
No POTUS will touch the gun thing.
Rudy is for civil contracts for gays, which most people find reasonable.
Pretending not to understand the question doesn't count either. The question was not complicated and required little more than a 'yes' or 'no' answer. Want to continue this little dance?
Okay, so they're a little disappointed he's not coming out strongly for gay marriage.
But they don't want to be one-issue voters or anything!
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